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HANDICAPPING FEATURE JUNE 17, 2010 2010 Woodbine meet -- trainer analysis of first 30 race days by Art Parker Early in the 2010 Woodbine meeting, a report was offered on the trainers that were most effective in the first 30 days of the 2009 meeting. The focus of the report is on successful trainer patterns. The report for the first 30 days of the 2010 Woodbine meeting is now available to you. Most of the trainers that appeared on the 2009 list made the 2010 list as well, and, with very few exceptions, their habits have not changed. Several new trainers made the 2010 list and obviously came into the 2010 meeting ready for battle. The 2010 report is presented as the 2009 report was to make comparisons easier. There are three parts to the 2010 report. The first focuses on trainers that were "hot" in Woodbine's first 30 race days in both 2009 and 2010, with 2010 trainer patterns reported. The second focuses on trainers that did not make the 2009 list but made the 2010 list, with 2010 trainer patterns reported. The last is simply a list of those that appeared on the 2009 list but not the 2010 list. Hot trainers in early 2010 and hot in early 2009: Asmussen, Steve (Only jockey: Contreras) Steve Asmussen is the perfect example of how some things rarely change. This barn just keeps on winning and winning. Asmussen's Woodbine trends in 2010 closely mirror his trends of 2009. Luis Contreras has been the only navigator used by the trainer this year. The workout pattern for Asmussen looks identical to last year with most horses going five-furlongs with seven days in between works. Asmussen has scored equally with first- and second-time layoff winners. One key to his second-time layoff winners is that their first race off the layoff came elsewhere. What is new with Asmussen this year is his excellent results with first-time off claims. Three times he has won with horses claimed at Keeneland, and within 24 days they won at Woodbine. Overall, Asmussen winning shippers have come from Keeneland, Fair Grounds and Oaklawn. And what happens if they don't win in their debut at Woodbine? You will probably see them in the winner's circle 21-30 days after workouts have been spread seven days apart. And, they will probably be dropping in class. Attard, Sid (Primarily Pat Husbands. Then: Moreno, Ramsammy or Wilson) Attard's first layoff attempts have been productive with his pattern being like last year. Workouts are usually six-eight days apart, with a final work four-six days prior to race day. There will be times when Attard works horses short then gradually extends their workout effort as race day nears. He doesn't wait long to bring losing horses back; his second layoff winners come back within a couple of weeks without work. Those that take longer to return usually receive a work within a week of racing. Baker, Reade (Top rider: Da Silva. Then: McEleney, Olguin, or Jones) Baker is a tough customer when it comes to running horses after a layoff. Like 2009, he scored often and quick in 2010 with horses working six-eight days apart, usually long works of five-furlongs or more, with the final work seven days prior to race day and often "hot." This trainer knows where his horses should run and it is evident with his second-time layoff runners. If they miss with their first layoff effort, then the game plan is repeated. Baker will work the same pattern and bring back the horse in three-five weeks, usually in the same class. He has scored twice with debut runners with long workouts six-seven days apart with a final work six-seven days prior to race day. His debut runners had gate works before their last pre-race work. Both of Baker's debut-winning runners wore blinkers. Baker has a pair of winners that shipped from Gulfstream (like 2009) that made a major change, either route-sprint or turf-dirt (poly). Carroll, Josie (Top rider: Pat Husbands. Then: Ramsammy or Clark) Carroll has been effective with first layoff runners always working horses long. Like 2009, she scores with a variety of scenarios. Her winning shippers came from Gulfstream. She has won dirt-turf and turf-dirt (poly), and won route-sprint. Second layoff winners come back in three-four weeks and all but one returned to the same class. Casse, Mark (Top rider: Either Pat Husbands or Corey Fraser. Then: Ramsammy, Williams and Jones) Like 2009, Casse won with several route-sprint moves with long workouts, and the runners return in either the same class or drop. His runners are particularly well intended when they drop from the maiden special weight ranks to maiden claiming. He has several winners shipping from Keeneland last year, but this year the winning shippers came from Tampa Bay Downs. The final workout for Casse's first layoff winners will be nine-13 days before race day. His second layoff winners' last work will come closer to race day, six-nine days prior to race day. Dipasquale, Sam (Top rider: Clark. Then: Dos Ramos, Jones, Sutherland) Just like last year, first layoff runners had five or six works and all worked six-eight days apart with the last work six-seven days prior to race day. Most all works were long. Second layoff runners were usually off 17-24 days, and if they worked, the effort was slow. Second layoff runners were usually spotted in the same class. What's different in 2010? He has already notched victories with a first claim and a debut runner. Those accomplishments were missing from his entire 2009 Woodbine profile. Fairlie, Scott (Top rider: Olguin. Then: Pizarro, Sutherland, Moreno) This trainer's success is much different than early 2009. He has won with just one first layoff winner. His second time layoff winners have been productive and usually return with no work or a breeze six-nine days prior to race day. Gonzalez, Nick (Top rider: Wilson, Clark or Callaghan) Gonzalez is fairly productive with first layoffs. He is more dangerous with those returning the second time after a rest. His second layoff winners come back to run in 15-26 days with a slow work seven-12 days prior, and with a class drop. Tiller, Robert (Top rider: Da Silva. Then: Sutherland) Tiller shows up with his guns loaded. If he doesn't hit the bull's eye with a first or second layoff runner, he will win with a debut effort. First layoff winners work nine-10 days apart, usually long, with last work seven-10 days prior to race day. His second layoff runners usually have no work and return in eight-20 days. Twice in 2010, Tiller has scored with repeat winners going up in class. In the first 30 days of racing, Tiller had an amazing five debut winners and two of those were owned by Frank DiGiulio. Like last year, his debut runners will work nine-10 days apart with the last work nine-12 days prior to race day, with at least one work from the gate. Hot trainers early in 2010 but not hot in early 2009: Attfield, Roger (Top rider: Jones. Then: Sutherland and Wilson) One of the very best in Canada over the years, Attfield is off to a better start in 2010. His 2009 performance was splendid; it just took him a little longer to get going. In 2010, Attfield does what he usually does and wins with either a first or second layoff horse. He is one of the better trainers at having a horse ready after an extended layoff, such as a year or longer. Most of his first layoff winners will work seven days apart with the works getting longer closer to race day, and he is just as likely to win with a class jumper as he is a class dropper. His second layoff winners do not come back very quickly and are often sidelined more than a month. Attfield has been to the winner's circle with two first timers thus far in 2010. He normally works his winning firsters seven days apart with at least one gate work from the last two listed workouts. Last year, he won twice with debut runners owned by Charles Fipke. He's already been to the winner's circle with a debut runner in 2010 for the same owner. Cotey, David (Top rider: Moreno. Then: Pat Husbands) A trainer that is effective with young horses (Do you remember Mine That Bird [Birdstone]?) who does not make a lot of noise in debut attempts. Cotey seems to have much more success after his horses get a race under their belt. He is hard to figure because he gives off few signs of a looming winner. Cotey's winning runners usually come back to race after a two-three week rest and usually show a long work four-seven days prior to race day, and the workout is never sizzling. DeGannes, Greg (Top rider: Ramsammy. Then: Dos Ramos) All of his winners have a work five-seven days prior to race day. DeGannes' first layoff winners have more time between workouts compared to other trainers. His second layoff runners are usually back in two-three weeks. Runners not falling into the first or second layoff group usually come back to run in three-five weeks. DeGannes has two wins with Gulfstream shippers. He has made major distance changes for a couple of other winners also. Depaulo, Michael (Top rider: Ramsammy, Moreno and Pat Husbands. Then: DaSilva) Depaulo came in with a few horses ready to burn up the track. He has scored twice with first layoff runners that repeated next time out. His workouts are more likely to be slow than hot and almost all of his winners show a work six-seven days prior to race day. He had two winners in their second career start, something he did only once all last year. Compared to last year, it looks like Depaulo has runners ready much earlier. Lynch, Brian (Top rider: Pat Husbands. Then: Moreno) All of Lynch's first or second layoff runners have been Gulfstream shippers. He has yet to show a consistent training pattern thus far in 2010. He had one repeat winner and one runner that scored in his second career start. Macrae, Donald (Top rider: Pizarro. Then: Sutherland, Stein, Ramirez, or Duquet) In the first 30 days of racing, Macrae's first layoff production is far ahead of last year. He has won with an equal number of class jumpers as those that dropped or remained in the same class. Most of his runners that are ready will show a "hot" breeze five-eight days prior to race day. His winners that scored on their second time of the layoff came back in three-four weeks and either dropped in class or remained at the same level. Pino, Michael (Top rider: Contreras. Then: DaSilva or Pat Husbands) Pino has won with first layoff runners, second layoff runners, second time claim runners and one horse making its debut, a wide variety of victories for a trainer in the first 30 days of racing. So, when should you get good vibes from Pino? Just make sure the horse is a shipper. This slick trainer had eight winners (plus a firster), and six of those scored the first time they ran at Woodbine. The shippers came from Gulfstream, Charles Town and Fair Grounds. His first layoff runners normally work slowly five-eight days apart and their last work is five-seven days prior to race day, but most importantly, they are almost always dropping in class. His claimed winner was off 42 days and dropped in class. When you see Pino's name at Woodbine remember two words: ship and drop. Silvera, Laurie (Top rider: Ramsammy. Then: Moreno) The biggest turn around in a trainer's performance comes with Silvera. In 2009, he only had 13 wins total and he almost equaled that effort in the first 30 days of 2010. He walked into town with his guns loaded this year and scored with five first layoff runners. His work patterns vary quite a bit and the tipoff is that he is not dropping his runners in class after a freshener. Of his three second layoff runners, one has been a repeat victor. Most of his horses run back in the 14-18 days range. Hot trainers in early 2009 but not hot in early 2010 (some may have few starts thus far in 2010): Bell, Dave
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