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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 9, 2010 by Dick Powell When Monmouth Park announced that they would run 12 races each raceday, I was completely against it. "How could they ever attract new fans to the sport by subjecting them to a six-hour raceday?" was my logic. Luckily, I don't have to sit through 12 live races at Monmouth but as a simulcast customer, I now like it. On any given weekend, you can go play golf, mow the lawn, jump in the pool, have a barbecue and they still have a few races left to run. Many of their racecards are backloaded with the better races at the end of the card so you not only have plenty of time to do other things but you'll get to watch and wager on their better races. Last Saturday, my wife and I were going somewhere and it was already 6:30 p.m. (EDT). While she was getting ready to leave, I told her to hold on for a second, made a phone call and hit the 12TH and final race at Monmouth. It's like the day never ends. Earlier in the day, there was a sprint race where it was hard to tell who had enough early speed to take advantage of a pronounced speed bias that saw the first three winners on the main track go gate-to-wire. Race five was a maiden special weight New Jersey-bred event going six furlongs for fillies and mares. Even though the Monmouth Park main track is playing at least a full second slower than last year, forwardly placed horses continue to do well and I didn't want a horse who might be too far behind. Glancing at the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, SANDINERSHOES (Say Florida Sandy) looked like a deep closer after rallying from eighth-place to finish third in her career debut here. But a further look at her pace figures showed that she had more then enough speed to keep up early. Her BRIS Early pace figures of 88 and 90 were the second fastest in the race and, with a race under her belt, she looked like strong value at 5.5-1. Paco Lopez broke her well, stalked the early pace in fourth, and then swung four wide around the far turn. She opened up in the stretch and cruised home an easy winner. If it wasn't for the BRIS Pace figures, you might not have used her since she looked like a deep closer but was really a pace prompter. I use the BRIS Pace figures regularly; especially in one-turn sprint races. They give me another way to look at how a race might shape up. And, if you plan on playing Saturday's Summit of Speed at Calder, you better be armed with them. The four graded stakes on the main track going six furlongs at Calder are perfect opportunities to use the BRIS Pace figures. Six-furlong races generate two Early Pace figures as well as a Late Pace figure and very few horses take back and wait. The early pacesetters are usually the fastest of the fast and BRIS Pace figures help you determine who that is. In the Azalea S. (G3), there are two fillies who look to be the fastest going into the first turn. RAPPORT (Songandaprayer) won her last two starts at Hollywood Park over the Cushion Track. In her last start, her Pace figures were 96 (E1), 105 (E2) and 90 (Late), indicating a filly who has early speed but is able to carry it to the finish. If she handles the Calder main track, she'll be super tough in here. The other speedy filly in the Azalea is PICA SLEW (Pico Central [Brz]), who won a minor stakes there last out when she posted numbers of 96, 105 and 92 -- remarkably similar to Rapport's Pace line but she did it over the surface she'll compete on Saturday. From the outside post, she should be able to relax some and save energy for the drive while stalking the early pace. In the Carry Back S. (G2) for three-year-old males, only four horses have decided to challenge D' FUNNYBONE (D'wildcat). Two starts back, the Rick Dutrow-trainee ran in the one-mile Withers S. (G3) when his Pace line was an incredible 113, 131 and 60. He tired badly in that race due to his monster middle move but last time out in the Woody Stephens S. (G2) going seven furlongs, his Pace line was more reasonable -- 87, 106 and 99 -- and he won going away. Six furlongs will be a bit of a question mark since it looks like seven is his best distance, but he has shown push-button acceleration which Edgar Prado can utilize at will. The only real challenger to D' Funnybone looks to be DREAM OF ATLANTIS (Stormy Atlantic), who was caught in the Unbridled S. last out at Calder. In that race, he broke a bit slow from post 1, rushed up to take the lead, and was caught late by fellow entrant COFFEE BOY (Yonaguska). Dream of Atlantis' Pace line was 95, 107 and 88. He gets a rider switch to Elvis Trujillo and, with a better break, should be able to have things his own way until Prado presses the button on D' Funnybone. A field of 13 will compete in the Smile Sprint H. (G2) for older sprinters, and it will be a real challenge. There are six-furlong specialists, route horses turning back to six furlongs, horses shipping in and horses for courses. BIG DRAMA (Montbrook) has won five of his six starts over the Calder main track and is three-for-three going six furlongs. He won the Ponche H. last out as a prep for Saturday while posting a Pace line of 100, 111 and 88 while carrying 121 pounds. He makes his second start of the year and should be fit for a big effort in a race that trainer David Fawkes has pointed him for. Even with 13 entrants, there is not a lot of early speed in the Smile. RUSTY CHARLIE (Pure Precision) was third behind Big Drama two starts back when he was able to outsprint him early and he could be tough again from post 1. He hasn't shown much ability to finish his races lately as he has been moved up in class but it would be crazy for anyone to challenge him early. He's finished first or second in 12 of his 16 starts at Calder and gets in with 112 pounds. TAQARUB (Aldebaran) is a speedy sort who has won his last two starts, including a sharp score last out at Pimlico, and he does his best running with a strong middle move around the far turn. Prado will need to break him sharply to keep him out of early traffic. The Princess Rooney H. (G1) for older females also attracted a field of 13. WARBLING (Unbridled's Song) is a blazing-fast filly who tired in the Humana Distaff S. (G1) last out going seven furlongs with a Pace line of 102, 117 and 70. She won the Inside Information S. (G2) two starts back at Gulfstream with a more reasonable Pace line of 95, 107 and 103, and looks to have a ton of early speed if she needs it but does better if she can conserve it early. From post 9 the gray filly appears like she's in the perfect spot. One filly who has more early speed than you might think is HOUR GLASS (Petionville). In her last two starts, she was at least four lengths behind after the first quarter and still fifth at the half-mile in her latest but her Pace line of 94, 110 and 88 for that one indicates that she'll be closer to the pace than expected. Now a Grade 2 stakes winner, she'll be making a big move around the turn with David Cohen aboard.
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