|
|
HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 23, 2010 by Dick Powell You almost wish that Saratoga and Del Mar ran during different times in the summer. With the overlap of their schedules now, it's a feast that is too much to consume. Saratoga begins at 1 p.m. (EDT) and Del Mar kicks off four hours later, meaning that high class racing is available past 9 p.m. each of the five days that both tracks operate. Throw in Monmouth's three-day week of high-class racing and you better get off to a great start or have a big bankroll. The good thing about these meets is that they are long enough to be patient and wait for some kind of rhythm to develop before you start betting strong. The bad thing is that with all the time between races that trainers want for their horses, you get far fewer horses running back at the meet than ever before. I go into each meet with some preconceived notions that usually hold up. I'll try to be flexible and adapt to changing circumstances, but I tend to be true to my knee-jerk beliefs. Here are some of them: At Saratoga, there is a big difference between the inner and Mellon turf courses. The inner has tighter turns and trips are very important. A rider needs to save ground and while you can go wide on one turn and still win, you can't go wide on both turns. Because there is such a premium on saving ground, riders will wait as long as possible to swing wide for clear running which results in many traffic jams. Over the years, favorites won less on the inner turf course so if you making multi-race wagers, you might want to go deeper in these races. The Mellon turf course is much wider with easier turns to navigate. When horses are wide on the Mellon, they are just losing ground and not wasting energy fighting centrifugal force. Favorites win on the Mellon more than they win on the inner and you can bet a favorite with more confidence since the chance of getting a troubled trip is reduced. Horses that are shipping up from Belmont that run on either turf course can be in for an adventure. That stalker types that are usually around four lengths behind on Belmont's one-turn turf races often find themselves 10 lengths behind against a bigger field going two turns at Saratoga. Belmont's turf courses were rock hard for most of the meet and it looked like Saratoga's would be as well, but predicted rain showers for opening day might provide some much-needed precipitation. On the main track at Saratoga, speed does extremely well. The rail is not the best place to be and outside posts have decided advantages going seven furlongs. Races run at 6 1/2 furlongs usually have faster first quarters than races run at six furlongs since the starting gate is placed at a spot that has a big run-up to the timing pole. A horse coming out of a 6 1/2-furlong race that ran the first quarter in :21 4/5 seconds is not as fast as you might think. If you have ever been around two-year-old fillies, it might be counter-intuitive but they are about the most formful class of horses on the grounds. Since there were so few juvenile races run at Belmont this year, there won't be many horses running at Saratoga with prior form. You better have your BRIS Ultimate Past Performances available with detailed trainer and pedigree information at your fingertips. Todd Pletcher is loaded with horses on and off the grounds of the track as he tries to win back his training title from Linda Rice. When Monmouth opened up with their high purses, it was expected that Johnny Velazquez would be riding there on weekends, but look for him to be at the Spa for most of the meet to be at Pletcher's beck and call; Garrett Gomez too. With no detention barn deterring out-of-town shippers and entries now being uncoupled in New York, there should be more betting opportunities than the past few years. Del Mar bit the bullet last year and reduced their racing to five days a week and lucky they did. Hollywood Park had trouble filling races all meet but many were waiting to show up "Where the Turf meet the Surf." A new track super has been hired to work with Del Mar's Polytrack and it might be slower than last year when more than 10 horses broke down. Still, since Del Mar removed its dirt track, speed has done well in one-turn races up to seven furlongs. Seven furlong races do not seem to have any bias and route races clearly favor closers. When you hear a fellow handicapper or media type pontificate how speed has no chance at Del Mar, just keep your mouth shut and go to the windows. Last year, there were 42 6 1/2 furlong races run on the main track and 43 percent were won gate to wire. At six furlongs, 31 percent of the 98 races were won gate to wire and at 5 1/2 furlongs, 24 percent were won gate to wire. Speed does just as well in Del Mar's main track sprints as it does anywhere else. The turf course plays like the main track going two turns. Closers have a decided advantage even though it will be listed as firm throughout the meet. Outside paths can be successful since it can guarantee a clear trip instead of being bottled up down on the inside. Joel Rosario had a great Hollywood Park meet and will be tough again at Del Mar. Rafael Bejarano will be his toughest rider for the riding title. Martin Garcia, Tyler Baze, Joe Talamo and Mike Smith will divide up the rest of the live mounts. The value guys will be David Flores, Victor Espinoza, Omar Berrio and Martin Pedroza. I still like apprentice rider Alex Gonzalez, but it's going to be tough to get mounts if races have trouble filling and short fields abound. There was a Pick 6 carryover after opening day and there should be many more as long as field sizes are maintained. If you are like me and are looking for enough carryover money to negate takeout, Del Mar is the place to be.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
