|
|
ARLINGTON NOTEBOOK MAY 28, 2010 by David Zenner We recently passed the halfway point of the 2010 Arlington meet, so this is as good a time as any to take another hard look at some statistics regarding how the Polytrack and turf course are playing. Playing the Poly The Polytrack stats that appear on the Arlington Park website at http://www.arlingtonpark.com/racing/handicapping/racing-information-statstics/polytrack-statistics come from a variety of sources including a database produced by Equibase that details every race run at Arlington since 2007. The subjective data is produced by Arlington Park's morning-line maker Joe Kristufek, who watches every race every day and whose picks appear both on the Arlington Park website and locally in the Daily Herald newspaper. Since the meet began on April 29, there have been 363 races on the Poly and, including an astonishing six dead-heats so far, 369 Polytrack winners. Looking at running style, the track is playing fairly even amongst closers (25 percent), stalkers (29 percent) and speed (29 percent), with pressers batting a little less at just 17 percent. The Polytrack has led to close finishes with 32 percent being decided by three-quarters of a length or less. Another 35 percent have been decided by margins of a length to 2 1/2 lengths. Twenty-two percent of the races have had winning margins from 2 3/4-to-4 3/4 lengths, while only 11 percent of the races have been romps of five lengths or more. The track is close to even between inside and outside winners -- with inside winners holding a logical, natural advantage of 53-47. Anyone who calls the results on the Arlington Polytrack random is clearly not looking at the statistics objectively. Favorites have accounted for 37.2 percent of the winners and 90 percent of the winners have been sent off at odds of less than 10-1, including nearly 60 percent at less than 3-1. Turf Tallies Despite losing most of last weeks grass races to the elements, Arlington's turf course continues to get a workout this season with 160 races contested on the green thus far. With the rail in Lanes 1-3 (0-42 ft.), stalkers/closers account for 53 percent of the winners with pressers/speed types making up the other 47 percent. The bias is a little more pronounced with the rail in Lanes 4 and beyond (43-87 ft.) with stalkers/closers accounting for 62 percent of the victors and pressers/speed types only hitting at 38 percent. The inside/outside balance is more typically favoring inside horses (shortest way home) at 54/46 percent. Arlington's turf has always been known for close finishes and the 2010 meet is no exception -- 47 percent of the races have been decided by three-quarters of a length or less, with another 36 percent having margins of 1-to-2 1/2 lengths. Favorites are batting at the industry average, 33.8 percent, with 89 percent of the races being won by horses at odds of less than 10-1. HORSES TO WATCH Thursday (7/22) 4TH -- WESTERN SWEEP (Western Expression) was boxed in. Lacked room in stretch before altering course to make a late rally for a share. 6TH -- SAYGOODNIGHTGRACIE (Mocha Express) was steadied on the turn before making a late rally that came up just a length short. Saturday (7/24) 8TH -- EMBERS GLOWING (Woodman) hopped at the start and was farther back than normal in a short field. Made steady progress to get into contention and closed well enough to earn a share.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
