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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 20, 2010 by Dick Powell The Arlington Million (G1) will be run for the 28th time this Saturday at Arlington Park and while this year's edition might not evoke memories of John Henry nosing out The Bart in its first edition, it will still be an interesting race to handicap. The heavy favorite at 7-5 will be the defending champion GIO PONTI (Tale of the Cat). Still rolling at the age of five, he came back from his trip to Dubai with two terrific races at Belmont Park; losing one by a half-length when stuck in traffic and getting up in time by a neck when stuck behind an incredibly slow pace. Ten furlongs seems to be his ideal distance, he draws post 6 and gets Ramon Dominguez back aboard. When looking at Gio Ponti's Ultimate Past Performances, one thing that sticks out is how different his running style is this year. Last year, an examination of his BRIS Pace figures shows that he was expending most of his energy during the middle of the race. For the last five turf races he competed in during 2009, his average pace figures were: 76, 102, 94. In this year's three turf races, his average pace figures were: 60, 72, 114. At the age of five, this shows that Gio Ponti has matured and is able to race along without much expending energy until he has to. He has gone from a "middle mover" to a "late mover" and while that is good for him racing at the age of five and only doing as much as he needs, it does reduce his margin of error. So, as good as Gio Ponti is, he is vulnerable to bad trips or pace scenarios that he might or might not overcome. As the favorite, he is a very bad bet. If he beats us, it will be at a short price so let's look elsewhere. MARSH SIDE (Gone West) is seven years old and had a good race over the course last month. He probably wants to go 12 furlongs instead of 10, draws the rail and has to tote 126 pounds. Post 1 at Arlington going ten furlongs on the turf is far worse than post 1 at Churchill going 10 furlongs so Corey Nakatani will have to gun him from the gate. For me, he's a toss. DEBUSSY (Ire) (Diesis [GB]) won a Group 2 stakes in France last summer going 10 furlongs. He's been in tough this year, gets Lasix for the first time and has England's top young rider, William Buick, in the irons. Worth considering. GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) has won Grade 1 stakes on synthetic and turf. When he's on his game, he has strong cruising speed with a good finish. In his last race here over the course, he was stuck wide from post 9 and was not able to make up any late ground. He should get a better trip from post 3. JUST AS WELL (A.P. Indy) is seven years old and just missed behind Marsh Side in last year's Northern Dancer S. (Can-G1). He won the Arlington H. (G3) here last year and has a big late kick when right. Plus, any turf horse sent out by trainer Jonathan Sheppard and ridden by Julien Leparoux merits consideration. QUITE A HANDFUL (Mutakddim) has won on the course before but looks overmatched at equal weights. RAHYSTRADA (Rahy) is six years old and is in great form. He won the Arlington H. last out and didn't run bad behind Gio Ponti earlier this year at Tampa Bay Downs. Forget the fact that he ran for $50,000 last year; he's in great form right now. TAJAAWEED (Dynaformer) was a Group 3 stakes winner two years ago in England. After two allowances races here in America, he rallied wide from post 11 last out to just miss in the Arlington H. He has to pick up 12 pounds off that effort, but he might be one of those European horses that runs his best on the firmer American turf courses. TAZEEZ (Silver Hawk) was a terrific third in the Prince of Wales S. (Eng-G1) two starts back at Royal Ascot going 10 furlongs. He was an even third going 12 furlongs last out against Group 2 company, gets first-time Lasix and could be tough if he repeats his Ascot form. SUMMIT SURGE (Ire) (Noverre) won a Group 2 stakes in his last start at York in England on firm turf for Luca Cumani. His prior races the past two years were run at seven and eight furlongs so his recent win going longer was an eye opener. Cumani is one of the world's best trainers and is especially dangerous with his international shippers. Kieren Fallon is a big money rider that gives up a day of racing in England to follow this one over here. The weather forecast for Saturday looks good with a slight chance of thunderstorms. The turf course at Arlington has been firm lately and we should see similar ground on Saturday. This year's Arlington Million looks to be Gio Ponti against the rest. He stands way over this field and even at low odds will be hard to ignore. The real challenge is to find the right horse that can win at a price or run second behind Gio Ponti. When you take Gio Ponti out of the equation, this looks to be a Grade 2 stakes at best. I went back to look at Summit Surge's last race and came away impressed enough to think that he could be in the money here and even win. In his first attempt at longer distances, Kieren Fallon kept him at the back of the pack where he settled nicely. When the running got serious in York's long homestretch, he rallied strongly and took over nearing the wire. The 10-furlong distance was no problem. In that race, he carried 128 pounds so he drops two pounds on Saturday and adds first-time Lasix. If Fallon uses the same tactics as last time, post 10 won't hurt him since he'll drop back early to save ground while racing behind horses. I'll make a win wager on Summit Surge and then a large exacta with Gio Ponti over him. Even though he'll be a longshot, having the Cumani/Fallon trainer/jockey combination gives one a lot of confidence.
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