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CLASSIC DIARY AUGUST 21, 2010 by James Scully Three-year-old males will be covered this week, focusing on horses pointing for either the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) or Dirt Mile (G1). Lucky stars: Champion two-year-old LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) entered 2010 as the early Kentucky Derby (G1) favorite, but his penchant for troubled trips proved costly earlier this season. He's avoided problems in his last two outings, winning the Preakness (G1) and Haskell Invitational (G1), and established himself as the odds-on favorite for champion three-year-old. And he'll make a strong case for Horse of the Year honors with a victory in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Winner of the CashCall Futurity (G1) in mid-December, the Bob Baffert trainee was caught in tight quarters and jumped heels entering the far turn in his sophomore and dirt debut, the March 13 Rebel S. (G2) at Oaklawn Park, but still managed to get up in deep stretch for a head win. He registered a 102 BRIS Speed rating, his first triple-digit number, but went back to synthetic for his final Kentucky Derby prep, the April 3 Santa Anita Derby (G1). After being nearly stopped in his tracks on the far turn, Lookin at Lucky did well to finish third that afternoon. It was the third troubled-trip in his last four starts. He drew the rail in the Kentucky Derby, but the post didn't beat him; a passive ride from Garrett Gomez did the trick. His best chance was to establish early position before dropping back off the speed, as Calvin Borel perfectly illustrated aboard SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon), who was hustled from post 4 and then retreated to sixth on the clubhouse turn to sit a perfect stalking trip. Gomez made no attempt to establish a forward position in the opening furlong and Lookin at Lucky wound up inhaling mud behind a pack of runners as they passed the wire the first time. After being shuffled all the way back to 18th, the bay Kentucky-bred offered a strong rally to reach contention at the top of the stretch but had nothing left for final furlongs, checking in sixth. Baffert replaced Gomez with Martin Garcia in the Preakness and misfortune stopped circling "Lucky" at Pimlico. He pounced from midpack on the far turn, taking the lead as he entered the stretch, and after repulsing a re-rally from pacesetter FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even), Lookin at Lucky drew off in the final sixteenth to win by three-quarters of a length. Baffert freshened up Lookin at Lucky after the middle leg of the Triple Crown, and the Karl Watson, Michael E. Pegram and Paul Weitman-owned colt came back better than ever in the August 1 Haskell, winning professionally by four lengths. The stalker easily overhauled First Dude, quickly accelerating to front at the top of the stretch, and exited the 1 1/8-mile event as a serious Classic contender. He earned a career-best 107 BRIS Speed rating as well as a 109 Late Pace number. My opinion of Lookin at Lucky changed following the Haskell. He rated well below older horses like Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) and Quality Road (Elusive Quality) beforehand, but that's no longer the case. The fact is Lookin at Lucky has improved in each of dirt starts, excluding his throw-out in the Kentucky Derby, and is a candidate to keep progressing this fall. Three-year-olds can make up a lot of ground on older horses at this time of the year, and Lookin at Lucky is getting faster. He's also as honest as they come, winning eight of 11 starts. Give him a chance and he'll fight all the way to the wire. The division leader came down with a slight fever after the Haskell, which kept him at Monmouth Park for a few extra days, but he's back at Baffert's barn in Southern California and is expected to return to the worktab soon. The 1 1/4-mile Classic distance appears well within his grasp, and Lookin at Lucky is expected to remain against three-year-olds before his first meeting against elders in the Breeders' Cup, with either the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) or Super Derby (G2), both on September 25, as his final prep. Haskell also-rans: The Haskell featured a deep field, with Derby winner Super Saver and runner-up ICE BOX (Pulpit); Preakness runner-up First Dude; and the exciting up-and-comer TRAPPE SHOT (Tapit). While none proved a worthy adversary for Lookin at Lucky, all four horses loom as serious contenders for the "Lucky"-less Travers S. (G1) on August 28. Trappe Shot is a candidate for both the 1 1/4-mile Travers and seven-furlong King's Bishop S. (G1). The Travers is more likely following his runner-up Haskell finish, but the Dirt Mile could wind up being a better option this fall, with an eye toward major route events in 2011. Unplaced following a stumbling start in his career debut last August, Trappe Shot broke his maiden when making his second career start at Gulfstream Park in late February, winning by 10 1/4 lengths in a six-furlong event for Florida-breds. The Kiaran McLaughlin runner defeated restricted company again next out, scoring by 12 3/4 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance on March 21, and then rolled to a four-length decision over open rivals in a seven-furlong allowance on the Belmont S. (G1) undercard. The runner-up that afternoon, TAHITIAN WARRIOR (Maria's Mon), has captured his next two starts in impressive fashion and could make his stakes debut in the King's Bishop. Trappe Shot made his two-turn and stakes bow in the July 10 Long Branch S. at Monmouth Park, recording a comfortable 2 1/2-length decision over a soft group, and offered a solid rally for runner-up honors in the Haskell. However, his BRIS Speed ratings, which topped out at 109 in the aforementioned seven-furlong allowance, have decreased in his last two starts as he's stretched out in distance. His pedigree isn't an issue -- it's a matter of stamina at this point for the inexperienced colt. The late bloomer has plenty of time to develop into a serious Classic contender next year if he stays healthy. First Dude, who hasn't won since breaking his maiden in late January, will look to snap a six-race skid in the Travers. A one-paced third in the Blue Grass S. (G1) in early April, First Dude switched tactics when making his next start in the Preakness, establishing a quick opening half-mile in :46 2/5 in the 1 3/16-mile classic, and the front-running colt admirably held for second. Wheeled back off three weeks rest in the 12-furlong Belmont S., the massive bay regressed off his career-best performance but managed to save for third after setting the pace. He would've run away with the final leg of the Triple Crown with a repeat of his Pimlico effort. First Dude gave up the lead after getting away with a moderate pace in the Haskell, finishing third off the freshening, but he's eligible to move forward in his second start off the break next time. There's other speed lining up for the event, though, and it will be no surprise to see First Dude, who has recorded four seconds and three thirds in nine starts, settle for another minor award. Florida Derby (G1) winner Ice Box has flopped badly in two starts since his fast-finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. The late runner beat only three horses when favored at 9-5 in the Belmont and reported home sixth in the Haskell, never passing any rivals in the stretch despite getting a fast pace up front. Trainer Nick Zito is hoping for a form reversal in the Travers, but Ice Box was unplaced in two starts at the Spa last year. Super Saver dropped his first two starts this year prior to the Kentucky Derby, finishing a non-threatening third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and second to the unheralded Line of David in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and wasn't flattered by the 105 BRIS Speed rating (which compares unfavorably to past winners) that he earned in the mud at Churchill Downs. With an eighth in the Preakness and a fourth in the Haskell, he's in danger of being compared to Mine That Bird (Birdstone) and Giacomo, recent Derby winners who are widely held in an unfavorable light given the lack of success that followed. The Travers couldn't be more important for Super Saver because there's essentially no reason to keep pointing him toward this year's Classic if he throws in another clunker. With that being said, I believe that Todd Pletcher will have the WinStar Farm homebred fully cranked for his best and expect to see the bay colt rebound with a much-improved performance. Super Saver, who lost weight between the Derby and Preakness, had reason to be short off the layoff last time and Pletcher said as much beforehand. His recent comments have more upbeat as Super Saver works his way back to a peak physical condition, and the Derby winner figures to be a little overlooked in the wagering given that he was 6-1 fourth choice in the Haskell. Super Saver will be in my Travers top three -- the main concern is whether he's fast enough to win. Jim Dandy runners: The July 31 Jim Dandy (G2) turned out to be a repeat of a June 29 allowance race at Delaware Park in which A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever) tracked pacesetter MINER'S RESERVE (Mineshaft) in second before switching places in the stretch run. The rest of the field, including favorite FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) and well-regarded Pegasus S. (G3) winner AFLEET EXPRESS (Afleet Again), never made an impact from off the pace. Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up A Little Warm was excluded from the Kentucky Derby due to insufficient graded earnings and missed the Preakness due to a fever. Winner of the six-furlong Spectacular Bid S. on the opening weekend at Gulfstream, the Tony Dutrow pupil finished a good second to D' Funnybone (D'wildcat) in the seven-furlong Hutcheson (G2) next out. He's been able to carry his form successfully to two turns so far, registering a respectable 104 BRIS Speed rating in the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy, but will be tested for stamina in the Travers. Out of an Alydar mare, A Little Warm can't be counted out because of the distance, and the improving colt shows a 109 BRIS Speed rating for his allowance score at 1 1/16 miles two back. He'll be forwardly-placed under John Velazquez in the Travers and could be the one to catch when the field turns for home. Miner's Reserve is likely headed to the King's Bishop for Zito, who already has Ice Box and Fly Down committed to the Travers, and the three-year-old is developing into a good candidate for the Dirt Mile in early November. He didn't fare well when contesting the Derby Trial (G3) four starts back, but we'll give him a pass due to the muddy conditions. The bay colt has registered BRIS Speed ratings of 105-106-102 since then. Fly Down, who broke his maiden at Churchill last November, opened 2010 with an allowance win at Gulfstream in February but was given time off following a disappointing ninth in the Louisiana Derby. He bounced back with a commanding six-length score in the Dwyer S. (G2), leaving Drosselmeyer in his wake, but was no match for the same rival when third in the Belmont S. Fly Down appeared completely flat last time, coming under a ride early on the far turn, and he's never earned big Speed numbers, with a career-best 101 for his runaway Dwyer. He doesn't look fast enough to win the Travers. Afleet Express is a different story. The James Jerkens runner netted a 113 BRIS Speed rating for an easy allowance tally three starts back and a 105 for his commanding 1 3/4-length score in the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus. In the Jim Dandy, he didn't receive a clean trip but offered a solid run for third, passing horses in the stretch, and the Travers should set up better for the stalker. Jerkens could've easily sent him to Monmouth for the Haskell -- the dark bay colt showed an affinity for the track in the Pegasus -- but elected to stay at home and prep for the main event on August 28. I like his chances on Travers Day. Newcomer: At this point in 2000, three-year-old Tiznow was nowhere on the Classic radar screen, and while none of this year's sophomores can be compared to the future Hall of Famer, CONCORD POINT (Tapit) is an intriguing colt to keep an eye on in the Baffert stable. The gray colt finished second when making his stakes bow in the seven-furlong Lazaro Barrera Memorial S. (G2) on May 22, and the winner, Smiling Tiger (Hold That Tiger), came back to defeat older horses in the Bing Crosby S. (G1) in his next outing. Concord Point went on to post a smashing 8 1/2-length decision in the Iowa Derby (G3) on June 26, garnering a 105 BRIS Speed rating, and recorded a more workmanlike one-length victory in the August 7 West Virginia Derby (G2), winning the 1 1/8-mile event in wire-to-wire fashion. The Travers remains an option for the improving colt, but Baffert will probably keep him at nine furlongs for the Pennsylvania Derby or Super Derby, choosing whichever spot doesn't have "Lucky." The Dirt Mile is a logical target for him in the fall. Sidelined: The three-year-old division lost a potential star when ESKENDEREYA was retired less than a week before the Kentucky Derby, and Belmont S. winner DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor) is out until at least the winter. The next edition of the Classic Diary will be in mid-September.
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