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THOROUGHBRED BEAT AUGUST 26, 2010 by James Scully A pair of dynamite three-year-old fillies and the Arlington Festival of Racing highlighted a big day of racing last Saturday, and we'll take a look at the main events this weekend at Saratoga and Del Mar. Pure skill: BLIND LUCK (Pollard's Vision) settled the debate over who is the best three-year-old filly with her victory in Saturday's Alabama S. (G1). Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer isn't going to run his star pupil against males this year, but she would've taken some beating in Saturday's Travers S. (G1), especially without Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) in the field. Once again, the dynamic late runner was caught rating behind a tedious pace in the Alabama that went in :24, :49 2/5 and 1:14 2/5. One must go back to December's Hollywood Starlet (G1), which resulted in a seven-length whitewashing of her nearest rival, to find the last time Blind Luck had a fast pace in front of her. She's won a lot of races over small fields in which they crawled early, and her running style (BRIS Late Pace ratings of 125 and 123 in recent starts) never changes. The chestnut miss begins to inhale opponents on the far turn before kicking it into overdrive in the stretch. Devil May Care (Malibu Moon) was the only filly in this year's Kentucky Derby (G1) and wound up 10th. We can only speculate on how Blind Luck would've fared that afternoon, but the evidence suggests that she could've challenged for at least a minor award since she has the same running style and has run faster than runner-up Ice Box (Pulpit). However, her participation in the Derby would've robbed us the opportunity to see one of the most thrilling editions of the Kentucky Oaks (G1). What a race that turned out to be. Turf Jewel: The last time EVENING JEWEL (Northern Afleet) tasted defeat it came at the hands of Blind Luck, who gallantly ran her down to win the Kentucky Oaks by a nose. Trainer Jim Cassidy switched Evening Jewel to the turf in her next start, and the bay lass has reeled off three straight graded wins. In Saturday's Del Mar Oaks (G1), Evening Jewel entered the stretch bottled up behind runners. Jockey Victor Espinoza found a seam down along the rail and the California-bred miss altered course without missing a beat, surging to the lead within a matter of a few strides. It was arguably her best performance to date and we'll see the blossoming turf sensation next in the October 16 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland. Evening Jewel is as versatile as they come. She's proven to be a top-class performer on turf, synthetics and dirt, and the $8,000 yearling is effective on the lead or rating just off the pace. Paddy/Debussy: Saturday's Arlington Million (G1) reinforced the notion that Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat) isn't the same performer from last year. The five-year-old still ran well for second, but a horse like Debussy (Ire) (Diesis [GB]) wasn't going to beat the defending champion in 2009. Unplaced in five of his previous six starts, Debussy isn't among the upper echelon of turf horses in Europe. He was well-beaten earlier this summer by Tazeez (Silver Hawk), who finished third to his stablemate's seventh in the June 16 Prince of Wales's S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot, but Debussy managed to outperform him at Arlington, with Tazeez fading to be a distant third after setting most of the pace on Saturday. Debussy rallied up the rail to win in good fashion, but PADDY O'PRADO (El Prado [Ire]) was the best turf male at Arlington last weekend. Don't be fooled by the final times (2:03 in the Million; 2:04 3/5 Secretariat) -- one race featured a legitimate pace and the other didn't. The opening three-quarters in the Million went in 1:13 3/5; the pacesetter negotiated the same distance in a pokey 1:16 4/5 in the Secretariat two races earlier. Paddy O' Prado struck the front in midstretch and cruised to a comfortable 1 1/4-length decision, winning with seemingly plenty left in the tank. It was another stellar performance from arguably the best turf male in North America. Paddy O'Prado broke his maiden when capturing the Palm Beach S. (G3) in March and followed with a runner-up in the Blue Grass S. (G1). He recorded a troubled third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and switched back to his best surface, turf, after a sixth in the Preakness S. (G1). He's now rattled off three straight easy wins, garnering the Colonial Turf Cup (G2) and Virginia Derby (G2) prior to the Secretariat, and is trained by Dale Romans, who notably guided Kitten's Joy to champion turf male honors as a three-year-old in 2004. Paddy O'Prado is firmly in the equation for champion turf horse at this point in the season, and I love the fact that he's been the same performer on firm or rain-softened ground. I thought he was good enough to beat elders in Saturday's Million, but the gray colt will wait for the opportunity this fall. Travers: Two major storylines in Saturday's 141st running of the Travers involve Derby winner SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) and TRAPPE SHOT (Tapit). Super Saver dropped his first two starts this year, but performed admirably in defeat when second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and third in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). He improved off those efforts in the slop at Churchill Downs, providing Todd Pletcher with his first Derby victory when scoring by 2 1/2 lengths, but couldn't regain that form in his next two starts, finishing eighth in the Preakness and a non-threatening fourth in the Haskell Invitational (G1). Saturday is make-or-break time in terms of validating his Derby success. Super Saver was freshened off the Preakness and is eligible to move forward in his second start back. The 10-furlong distance favors him as well as his running style: he figures to sit a good trip just off the early speed before offering his run. The WinStar colt looks very dangerous. Trappe Shot is still an up-and-coming talent. He made his stakes and two-turn debut two starts back in the 1 1/16-mile Long Branch S., defeating a suspect bunch with ease, and offered a solid run for second behind Lookin at Lucky in the nine-furlong Haskell. A talented sprinter earlier in the year, the Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is bred to handle 1 1/4 miles, but he still has to prove it against battle-tested rivals. It's no surprise that his connections gave serious consideration to running him in the seven-furlong King's Bishop S. (G1) earlier on the program. I'll make a case for AFLEET EXPRESS (Afleet Again). A smart winner in the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus S. (G3) at Monmouth Park two back, the colt could've been easily returned for the Haskell six weeks later, but trainer James Jerkens took a more conservative route, using the Jim Dandy (G2) as a prep for the Travers. The colt was sitting on a bounce last time and Jerkens put a series of easy works into him before the nine-furlong Jim Dandy. Afleet Express didn't regress much off the Pegasus, offering a decent run from midpack for third-place honors, 2 1/2 lengths behind A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever), and that effort set him up for his best on Saturday. I love the fact that Jerkens has tightened the screws with two terrific works in preparation, and the improving colt owns the BRIS Speed ratings (101-105-113 in his last three starts) for a breakthrough performance. Pacific Classic: Turf star THE USUAL Q. T. (Unusual Heat) and the resurgent seven-year-old gelding AWESOME GEM (Awesome Again) are two of the biggest storylines entering Saturday's $1 million Pacific Classic (G1). The Usual Q. T. was one of the top candidates for Saturday's Arlington Million, but the decision to remain in California could prove fortuitous given the fact that he relishes firm ground and the turf at Arlington was soft. The multiple Grade 1 winner is zero-for-five in previous synthetic starts, but none of those came on Polytrack. He's a serious player if he makes a smooth transition to the new footing. Awesome Gem finished second by a half-length in the first Pacific Classic held over Polytrack in 2007 and went on to claim third in that year's Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Monmouth Park. A dismal seventh in last year's Classic at Santa Anita, the veteran campaigner opened 2010 with a dull eighth in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile (G1) and wasn't a factor when third in the New Orleans H. (G2) next out. Nobody anticipated that the best was still yet to come at that point. With a zero-for-12 mark in Grade 1 events, the Craig Dollase runner surprised onlookers with a career-best effort in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) last time, defeating the heavily-favored Rail Trip (Jump Start) by a half-length, and I like him right back on Saturday. They'll be comparing him to a fine wine, one that improves with plenty of age, if the chestnut nabs a second straight major prize on Saturday. Personal Ensign: Reigning Horse of the Year RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d'Oro) will make her first start at 1 1/4 miles in Sunday's Personal Ensign S. (G1) and a number of Thoroughbred racing fans still view her a contender for this year's Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. I don't see it -- the Ladies' Classic (G1) is the only realistic spot for her this year -- and I'm looking forward to playing against her on Sunday. The visual evidence is overwhelming and her Speed ratings back it up: Rachel Alexandra isn't the same horse from last year. She used to explode off the far turn, easily dismissing top horses like Summer Bird, who sandwiched victories in Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), Travers and Belmont S. (G1) around a humbling second to the mighty filly. This year, Rachel Alexandra has been mired in stretch battles with the likes of Zardana (Brz) (Crimson Tide), Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song) and Queen Martha (Rahy). Those horses couldn't have warmed her up in 2009, and Rachel Alexandra is now stretching out in distance. LIFE AT TEN (Malibu Moon) is going the opposite direction. Conditioned by Todd Pletcher, the five-year-old mare has won six straight, humbling her rivals in the 10-furlong Delaware H. (G2) most recently, and she'll establish herself as the leading contender for the Ladies' Classic with a victory over Rachel Alexandra. The next Thoroughbred Beat will be in two weeks.
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