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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 27, 2010 by Dick Powell The Travers S. (G1) will be run for the 141st time this Saturday at Saratoga, and it should be run under glorious, sunny conditions. Divisional leader LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) is not here which has resulted in an evenly-matched field of 11 contenders. Let's look at them from the rail out. On the inside is MINER'S RESERVE (Mineshaft), runner-up in the Jim Dandy S. (G2). He has brilliant cruising speed but I was disappointed that he was
not able to relax in the Jim Dandy. Even though he held on for second, the
suspicion is that a speed-favoring track where nobody was able to rally from off
the pace aided his effort. He picks up eight pounds off that effort and will
have to be used early from post 1. I think he has a world of talent but until he
stops fighting his rider, 10 furlongs is out of the question. TRAPPE SHOT (Tapit) was on the fence between a start in the Travers or the
King's Bishop S. (G1) going seven furlongs on the undercard. Kiaran McLaughlin
and owner Nick Brady decided to go all in with the Travers. He's bred to go long
and his win at Monmouth in the Long Branch S. was excellent. In
the Haskell (G1), he rallied late to pass the tiring frontrunners but could not
threaten Lookin at Lucky. He draws well and gets Alan Garcia and will pick up
eight pounds. If you want to know if ADMIRAL ALEX (Afleet Alex) has a shot in the Travers
off a career-debut maiden win, just ask his 79 year old trainer, Leon Blusiewicz.
"Blue" is walking and talking like he's already won the race and how can you
blame him. His maiden win going nine furlongs was excellent and he looks like he
can run all day. Long on talent, he's short on experience but it could be to his
advantage going 10 furlongs since he looks like he'll have no trouble getting
it while some of his more experienced rivals might not ever get it. FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even) is a big horse that does his best racing when
he can run freely and use his huge stride to its best advantage. He almost stole
the Preakness S. (G1), then came back and almost did it again in the Belmont
(G1). In the Haskell, he was under constant pressure through the last half-mile
and held on for third. He adds blinkers today, draws well and might even relax a
bit if he gets a first-over trip outside of Miner's Reserve. Ramon Dominguez
fits him perfectly and he picks up eight pounds. A LITTLE WARM (Stormin Fever) has won his last two starts going two turns and
has emerged as the hot horse for the second half of the year. His win at
Delaware Park over Miner's Reserve was brilliant and he came back to do it again
in the Jim Dandy in fast time. It took him four sprint starts to break his
maiden last year but he is a fast horse that has gotten better as the races have
gotten longer. In his two-turn debut, he was a terrific second in the Louisiana
Derby (G2) while beating Belmont winner DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor), so he has
shown that he can run with the big boys and his now better than ever. Johnny
Velazquez returns in the irons and it's now apparent why he went to Delaware
Park on his day off to ride an allowance race. He picks up eleven pounds off his
Jim Dandy race. ICE BOX (Pulpit) rallied furiously to get second in the Kentucky Derby (G1)
but hasn't shown much since. He was the beaten favorite in the Belmont S.
and then was flat in the Haskell. But trainer Nick Zito is always dangerous
bringing a horse back off a poor effort and he might get enough pace to set up
his late kick. Julien Leparoux rides and he picks up six pounds. AFLEET EXPRESS (Afleet Alex) was an impressive winner of the Pegasus S.
(G3) in his two-turn debut at Monmouth Park, then showed up here for the Jim
Dandy instead of the Haskell. He only ran in spots as he was bumped at the start
and was wide for most of the trip. Still, he was rallying nicely in the stretch
against a speed bias and has trained well since then for Jimmy Jerkens. Leading
rider Javier Castellano gets back aboard and Jerkens would like nothing better
than to beat A Little Warm, who is owned by Edward "Ned" Evans who fired him as
the trainer of Quality Road (Elusive Quality) last year. FLY DOWN (Mineshaft) looked great winning the Dwyer S. (G2) by six
lengths over subsequent Belmont winner Drosselmeyer. He was an erratic second in
the Belmont and then was a rough-trip fifth in the Jim Dandy. Jose Lezcano gets
off Ice Box to stay with this one and he seems to do his best when outside of
horses, which should be no problem while breaking from post 8. He picks up
five pounds off his Jim Dandy race, but has already run well going 12 furlongs
with 126 pounds in the Belmont. FRIEND OR FOE (Friends Lake) won his first three starts before stepping up in
his graded debut when he was an excellent fourth while wide in the Jim Dandy. He
gives the impression that there is still an upside as he makes his fifth career
start in the Travers. He has tactical speed and showed in the Jim Dandy that he
can still be running late. His biggest negative on Saturday is that he is
picking up 11 pounds off his last race but can contend with
another step of improvement. AFLEET AGAIN (Afleet Alex) was a good second in the Pegasus behind Afleet
Express but then showed little in the Haskell. He's a Grade 3 winner
going a mile and has the pedigree -- top and bottom -- to get 10 furlongs on
dirt. Cornelio Velasquez picks up the mount, and he adds eight pounds. Finally, breaking from post 11 is this year's Derby winner SUPER SAVER
(Maria's Mon). Yes, a lot of things went his way in the Derby but his Arkansas
Derby (G1) second was excellent. He fell apart in the Preakness and when he
returned off the layoff in the Haskell, he was very rank for Calvin Borel, who was
forced to go up three wide instead of dropping in behind the speed. He gave the
impression that he needed the race and if he is able to relax for Borel, he
could work out a good trip from the outside post. I liked Afleet Express in the Jim Dandy and while disappointed in the result, it showed to me that he will be super tough in the Travers. He finishes his race with energy but has more than enough speed to get a good trip. I hope Castellano uses that speed not to go to the front, but to set up shop on the inside behind it. He ran on strongly in the Jim Dandy even when it looked like he was out of it at the top of the stretch and should get a better set-up on Saturday. With 10 other horses, it will cost $90 to wheel Afleet Express with all/all. Normally, I would key him underneath in exactas but I can't narrow it down to a manageable number so the only other bet I will make is a win/place bet on him. *** In the Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar on Saturday, I like the defending champion, RICHARD'S KID (Lemon Drop Kid), to win it again. He went to Dubai this year for the World Cup (UAE-G1) and ran well behind a slow pace. Then, he was a good third in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) going 10 furlongs. Usually, I don't like horses coming off 1 1/2-mile races going shorter, but his third in the Cougar II H. (G3) was four weeks ago and should have him in great shape. Since then, Bob Baffert has been drilling him hard for speed in the morning, so I am looking for a big effort from him on Saturday against an evenly-matched field.
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