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ARLINGTON NOTEBOOK

SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

by David Zenner

Handicappers love turf racing and on Labor Day Monday at Arlington, weather permitting of course, fans are sure to get their fill. As many as nine races will be carded for Arlington's annual "Turf Showcase," including the Pucker Up S. (G3) for three-year-old fillies.

With nearly the entire card slated for turf, I thought it would be beneficial to take a look at turf statistics through the meet through the end of August.

With a fairly dry summer in Chicago, Arlington has lost relatively few grass races to the elements. Plus with a four-day race week, the course has three days a week to recover from use. Thus through August 31, Arlington has already run more than 230 races on the turf and if September remains dry, you can expect to see a glut of turf races the final month of the meet.

Monday's annual Labor Day turf showcase will utilize the entire 150 ft.-plus width of the Arlington turf by employing a dual rail set-up with one rail placed 10 ft. inside of Lane 1 (or absolute zero as denoted in the PPs) and the other in Lane 5 (62 ft.). Which races will be run over which course will be determined at entry time and will be listed at the end of the header for each race. (A good key will be that about distances should be on Lane 1 and exact distance in use for Lane 5).

The two courses have played somewhat differently with regard to the running style of the winners.  If you take turf racing as a whole, the running style of the winners looks as follows:

Winner’s Running Style on Arlington Turf

Closers:    78/231 = 33.8%
Stalkers:   58/231 = 25.1%
Pressers:   34/231 = 14.7%
Speed:   61/231 = 26.4%

However, when you break it out by rail position, slightly different look plays out:

Rail 0-42 feet    
Stalkers/Closers:   75/135 = 55.6%
Pressers/Speed:   60/135 = 44.4%
     
Rail 43-87 feet    
Stalkers/Closers:   61/96 = 63.5%
Pressers/Speed:   35/96 = 36.5%

You can see while stalkers/closers are predominant regardless of the rail set up, speed/presser types have a better chance with the rail in Lane 1 than they do with the rail in Lane 5.

Other turf stats you might find useful heading into the Labor Day turf showcase follow.

Winner's Location on the Arlington Turf    
Inside:   131/231 = 56.7%
Outside:   100/231 = 43.3%
     
Winning Margins on the Arlington Turf    
3/4-length or less:   107/231 = 46.3%
1 to 2 1/2 lengths:   87/231 = 37.7%
2 3/4 to 4 3/4 lengths:   30/231 = 13%
5 or more lengths:   7/231 = 3%
     
Winner's odds on the Arlington Turf    
Post time favorites:   75/231 = 32.5%
3-1 or less:   122/231 = 52.8%
7-2 to 9-1:   83/231 = 35.9%
10-1 and up:   26/231 = 11.3%

Enjoy the holiday weekend and let's hope for dry weather so we can have a successful and profitable turf showcase.

HORSES TO WATCH

Sunday (8/28)

2ND -- LET IT RAIN (Sky Classic) had to come seven-wide entering stretch.

MONASHEE ROSE (Monashee Mountain) was taken up in stretch, had to alter course and rally five-wide while still coming on late. Was a big price here and could be a price again next out.


 


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