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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS NOVEMBER 5, 2010 by Dick Powell The Breeders' Cup will be run for the 27th time Friday and Saturday and, as always, it is the ultimate handicapping challenge. But this year, it is even more challenging because of the dangerous trend of trainers and owners that do not want to race their horses. Some have said that the Breeders' Cup is hurting racing because the classic fall prep races have fallen out of favor. Because of high purses and championship implications, more horses than ever are avoiding the historic fall races and making sure that they are ready for racing's biggest day. While there is obvious truth to this, the real problem is how much time trainers and owners want between races. If the Breeders' Cup on the first Saturday in November is the ultimate goal, and, it is, then owners and trainers work their way backward to have their horses in peak form for that day. But, what used to be a few weeks' time has now grown to a few months' time as many of this weekend's stars have not run since Saratoga. Stars like QUALITY ROAD (Elusive Quality) and BOYS AT TOSCONOVA (Officer) have not run in nearly nine weeks. Most of the other shippers from Belmont and Oak Tree at Hollywood have not run in five weeks. A few ran four weeks ago at Keeneland and that's about it. For a horse like Quality Road, who has never won going 10 furlongs and has only tried it twice, all we can do is extrapolate his current nine-furlong form and guess how he'll do. Instead of giving him the experience of 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), trainer Todd Pletcher has trained him up to the race as if he's a proven commodity at the distance. Boys at Tosconova broke his maiden by 12 lengths in July and skipped the two early graded stakes races for juveniles at Saratoga to wait for the Hopeful S. (G1) on Labor Day. He won that day going seven furlongs and instead of going on to the Champagne S. (G1) at a mile, he went to the sidelines to train for his two-turn debut. The way he finished in the Hopeful indicates that he can do it but it's more of an act of faith than an empirical conclusion. As a handicapper, the increasing time between races by today's horses -- and not just the stars but the average horse sitting in a barn at a racetrack in America -- means that we have much smaller samples to draw our conclusions from. Today's horse in America races so infrequently that we are no longer handicapping horses but the people that decide when the horse is going to run and what they are trying to do. It's not whether or not Boys at Tosconova can win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) going two turns for the first time, it's whether or not trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. can get him to do it. It's not whether or not Quality Road can get 10 furlongs, it's whether or not Pletcher can get him to do it. With short racing careers, horses trying two turns for the first time, trying grass for the first time, or trying a wet track for the first time are usually given one opportunity to do it. If they fail, they don't get another chance. Perfect example was when Jess Jackson decided to try Curlin on the turf. The course at Belmont turned out to be rock hard, Curlin ran second and he never tried it again. Forget about whether or not he would have handled a turf course with some give in it if given a second chance. His owner tried it once and that was it even though Curlin's trainer was on record about how well Curlin does things when he tries them for the second time. As they say in college basketball, "One and done." Thankfully, if you read this column, you probably are using BRIS' Ultimate Past Performances so you have detailed trainer information on issues like layoffs. You know that Dutrow wins 23 percent off 45-90 day layoffs and 22 percent first time going a route, so you can take that into account when deciding if Boys at Tosconova can get two turns. The second factor in deciding whether a horse can successfully do something for the first time is pedigree. And, once again, the Ultimate Past Performances provide you with the right information. Boys at Tosconova's sire, Officer, produces winners with an average winning distance of only 6.2 furlongs. This is a sprint pedigree and a major question mark to get two turns. It's not to say that Boys at Tosconova can't do it, but there's so little evidence to make a cogent argument that he can. What I have found is that I do my best handicapping when concentrating on trainer and pedigree angles and do my worst with horses that have tons of experience. Give me a field of older dirt sprinters running for $10,000 claiming tags and I am lost. Give me a field of maidens that includes many first-time starters and I am right at home. I'm not saying that today's way of doing things is good for the sport. Having a racetrack with all the stalls filled in the stable area that still has small fields is not healthy. But for some reason, it works out for me.
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