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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 13, 2011 by Dick Powell It was the best of times; it was the worst of times. This year's Kentucky Derby (G1) was definitely a tale of two racetracks. For those that raced on the outside, it was the best of times. For those that raced on the inside, it was the worst of times. Unlike last year's Derby when the inside was golden, this year's race was very similar to the 2005 edition that Giacomo won. In that race, there was a ridiculously fast early pace and the horses that raced on the outside had the advantage. Go back and watch Afleet Alex in the stretch and how it looked like he might win until he drifted to the inside and spun his wheels in the final 100 yards. Saturday's track at Churchill Downs was groomed with rain or thunderstorms expected to hit the Louisville area around midday. As the day went on and only sprinkles hit for about 10 minutes, the track favored wide closers the rest of the day. In the Derby, the horses rallying on the outside had a decided advantage despite an incredibly slow pace. Shackleford (Forestry) went to the front as expected but faced no early pressure as the other speed horses were content with their early positions. With a half in :48.63 and six furlongs in 1:13.40, there was a big group of tightly-bunched horses racing behind the leaders. Nehro (Mineshaft) did not drop back at the start as expected but raced in contention while extremely wide. Around the far turn, he loomed up four wide and just when it looked like he would pay the price for his wide trip, he continued on. ANIMAL KINGDOM (Leroidesanimaux [Brz]) was racing midpack while wide for most of the trip. He swung even wider turning for home and stormed by everyone while out in the middle of the track. Nehro gamely hung on for second. Watch Mucho Macho Man's (Macho Uno) stretch run. He was making up ground while wide, but when he drifted in to the inside he began to lose momentum. When he went back outside, he started to gain ground again to finish third. None of the first three finishers raced inside of the three path throughout the race. Major bonus points have to be given to Shackleford for hanging on for fourth. Yes, he got away with murder on the front end while allowed to set dawdling fractions, but he raced on the worst part of the track. Clearly, his runner-up finish in the Florida Derby (G1) was no fluke. And, Master of Hounds (Kingmambo) made up ground from far back when he dove to the inside in the stretch. I wish they had saved him for the Belmont S. (G1), where he would have been a perfect bet at a good price. Take nothing away from Animal Kingdom. He was tons the best and dominated this year's Derby. Considering it was his first race on dirt, it was a huge performance and a testament to the training skills of Graham Motion. When Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) scratched on Friday morning before advance betting began, John Velazquez was suddenly available and Motion and Team Valor quickly grabbed him. Robby Albarado was scheduled to ride, but he was injured on Wednesday. Not knowing what kind of physical condition he would be in if he rode on Saturday, Motion made the decision to replace him. How many times have you seen riders come back from injuries too soon and not be at their best physically? It almost pays to do what Motion did and not bet on them until they prove that they are physically fit. How these horses run back in the Preakness S. (G1) is anyone's guess. Animal Kingdom has only had five career starts and could still be improving. Nehro showed versatility by racing up near the pace so he's not quite the one-dimensional closer that he looked like in prior starts. Mucho Macho Man just keeps running the same race regardless of the conditions. Shackleford was a great second in the Florida Derby when he set a contested pace and held on for fourth here racing on the worst part of the track when setting a slow pace. I'd love to see him on a track with some moisture in it. Master of Hounds flew home on the worst part of the track and will be very tough in his next start. He only had one race to prepare for this and should improve greatly next time out. As for the rest, Soldat (War Front) had no apparent excuse stalking the pace. Stay Thirsty (Bernardini) was bumped at the start but had a perfect, inside trip except the inside was not the place to be and there was no moisture in the track. Santiva (Giant's Causeway) made up some ground late and showed good energy. When Uncle Mo scratched on Friday, it appeared that Dialed In (Mineshaft) would be a decided favorite, but support for him was lukewarm. Pegged at 4-1 in the morning line before the Uncle Mo scratch, he went off at 5-1 and was never involved. He was far back early, no surprise, behind a slow pace, big surprise, and never showed the stretch kick that he is known for. He is eligible for a big bonus if he wins the Preakness, so it is expected he will go on to Baltimore.
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