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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JANUARY 20, 2012 by Dick Powell Aqueduct is in the fourth week of VLT-supplemented purses and it has forced a change in thinking on behalf of handicappers. Allow me a moment to give the background on why. Every track in America that now has purses fueled by video lottery terminals/slot machines has made the same mistake on how the revenue is allocated -- they all give too much money to the bottom-level claimers and not enough to the upper-level horses, maiden special weights and allowances. What I disagree with is when the acquisition cost of the horse is four times higher than the purse they are racing for at the bottom while the upper level horses are subject to wide variations in acquisition costs. A $7,500 claimer can be purchased out of a race and it now runs for a $30,000 purse. But, a horse running in a first-level allowance race runs for $65,000 going short but the cost of acquiring such a horse could range anywhere from $50,000 to seven figures. Since the racing resumed at Aqueduct after the holiday break and the purses exploded, what we see on a daily basis are races for $7,500 claimers but many of the horses dropping down from $16,000. If you have a $16,000 claimer, you are racing for a purse of $34,000. If you drop down to $7,500, you could get $18,000 if you win and even if you get claimed, that's another $7,500 on top for a total of $25,500. There's been a ton of claims at the $7,500 level so far and the backstretch has to have a lot of confused horses. Considering how much time trainers give their horses between races, the 30-day jail time after a claim is not a problem since it's unlikely the horse would have been back in that time frame anyway. So you can claim and come right back against the same group on the same schedule you would have been on anyway. When handicapping these races, you almost have to ignore the suspiciousness of the dropdown and just look at it in the above financial terms. A horse taking a big drop in claiming price is not necessarily a "fire sale" or is a horse that has physical ailments that the owner has decided can't be competitive at the present claiming level and needs to be dropped. My rule is to not read anything into the dropdown and just take it for what it is. With all the claims going on, it pays to have the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances on hand to get all the pertinent trainer information. When you get down to the bottom claimers, you are going to find it's not really a bottom but a place where a lot of hard-knocking horses have congregated. The unrestricted $7,500 claimers are a contentious lot and the dropdown horses better be in good form if they think they are going to win. For instance, an unrestricted $7,500 claimer going two turns has a BRIS Speed Rating par of 91. A $7,500 non-winners of two going two turns has a BRIS Speed Rating par of only 79. The difference in pars is the difference between a group of hard-knocking claimers and recent maiden claiming winners. A beaten $30,000 claimer going two turns has the same BRIS Speed Rting par of 91 that the unrestricted $7,500 claimer going two turns has to give you further evidence of how tough these horses are at the "bottom." I prefer in-form $7,500 claimers that have been knocking heads at that level against the first-time dropdown for the most part. The dropdowns tend to get overbet and are worth avoiding. This Saturday at the Fair Grounds will be the running of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes for three-year-olds going two turns on the main track. Last year, incredibly, only five horses were entered despite $100,000 in graded earnings available. This year's Lecomte has a purse of $175,000 and lo and behold, a full field of 13 is entered to go. With most Kentucky Derby contenders only racing three times before the first Saturday in May, races like the Lecomte take on more importance. I would not be surprised if MR. BOWLING runs a big race for Larry Jones at 8-1.
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