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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS OCTOBER 21, 2005 by Dick Powell The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S. (G1) was run last week at Keeneland and for me it was one of the toughest beats ever. Ignoring my advice on how more information does not necessarily equal more success, I did a ton of work on the race, including going back and watching some races from Europe to get a handle on the European shippers. Six of the seven starters began their careers in Europe, although some had been racing here for a while. I follow international racing as much as possible and, having previously stated that the European horses are much better than the American-based turf horses, I felt that I had an edge in this turf event for three-year-old fillies. Luas Line (Ire) (Danehill) was the 2-1 favorite based on a sharp win last out in the Garden City Breeders’ Cup H. (G1) at Belmont. Her prior effort in America was a fourth in the American Oaks behind the Japanese sensation Cesario (Jpn) (Special Week) and she has shown an ability to run well on any ground and negotiate left-handed turns. The one thing Luas Line had against her is that many Euro shippers do their best racing in their first start off the plane and this was her second start. She stayed in America after the Garden City and trained at Saratoga and Turfway Park. Despite post 2 and Johnny Velazquez, I made her a complete toss. The wiseguy horse was Gorella (Fr) (Grape Tree Road [GB]) for new trainer Patrick Biancone. She was making her American debut but had been training over here for about a month. Adding to her appeal were two third-place finishes behind the great Divine Proportions (Kingmambo), who won her first nine starts before suffering defeat and a career-ending injury. Divine Proportions would have been favored in either the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) against males or the Filly & Mare Turf (G1). She was that good. In Gorella's last start, she finished a strong second in a French Group 1 race to Starcraft (NZ) (Soviet Star), who is pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1). But France was the key to my passing on Gorella in the QEII. She looked to me like a soft-turf specialist and the Keeneland turf course was going to be firm on Saturday. Track officials in France water their turf courses, which are almost never firm, so this was a new experience for Gorella. At 21-10, I thought she was being overbet. On the other hand, Karen's Caper (War Chant) was not taking much money at nearly 12-1. She shipped in from England for John Gosden, who has won the QEII before, drew a nice, middle post and had the red-hot Robby Albarado in the irons. Like Gorella, she hasn’t been winning lately but competing against some of the best in Europe. Three races before the QEII, Karen's Caper missed by a length to Maids Causeway (Giant's Causeway) in the Coronation S. (Eng-G1) at the Ascot-at-York meet. Maids Causeway was fresh off a second in the Irish One Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1) and was in career-best form at that point. Plus, the Coronation was run on turf listed as good but probably would have qualified as firm over here. The running time of 1:36 2/5 for the mile was especially quick. Karen's Caper came back next time out against older rivals in the Falmouth S. (G1) at Newmarket, where she was fourth and only a length behind international turf filly Alexander Goldrun (Gold Away [Ire]), who beat males in the Hong Kong Cup (HK-G1) at Sha Tin in December. After the typical summer rest that many horses based in Great Britain get, Karen's Caper returned in the Matron S. (Ire-G1) in Ireland at Leopardstown, where she was beaten on yielding turf. It was her first start in 10 weeks, so the firm turf and first-time Lasix at Keeneland while back in against three-year-old fillies looked to be right up her alley. Had the turf come up soft, I would have preferred Gorella since her French form indicated that was what she liked to run over best. But on firm ground, I gave the edge to Karen's Caper and with the odds in my favor I really thought I had uncovered a golden wagering opportunity. On paper it looked like a paceless race and on the track it was. And paceless turf races always mean that traffic will be a major factor in the outcome. Naissance Royal (Ire) (Giant's Causeway) wound up pressing a very slow pace four wide with Edgar Prado. Luas Line did her best imitation of the headstrong Intercontinental (GB) (Danehill) in fighting Johnny Velazquez, resisting his efforts to settle down. Albarado had Karen's Caper 1 1/2 lengths off an opening half-mile of :50.84, racing behind the top two and covered up, which most European horses like. Rafael Bejarano had Sweet Talker (Stormin Fever) wide every step, but he wisely sacrificed ground loss for a clear trip. Gary Stevens took Gorella back to last and was able to save ground on both turns. After six furlongs in a pokey 1:15.52, the field bunched up even more nearing the top of the stretch. Luas Line was holding on grimly and facing challenges on all sides. Naissance Royale was battling to her outside and Bejarano made a bold move three wide aboard Sweet Talker. Albarado had to steady Karen's Caper ever so slightly and began to re-rally after being shuffled back to sixth. From the back of the pack, Stevens had clear sailing up the rail on Gorella and it looked like she would blow past them. But the slow pace and the talent of the fillies up front meant that none would give an inch and Gorella’s march toward the lead began to slow down. Luas Line was the first to back up but, amazingly, Karen’s Caper was closing relentlessly. About 100 yards from the finish she didn’t look like she would be in the money and 50 yards out she looked like she had a chance. As the field hit the wire, the finish came down to the dead-game Sweet Talker and Karen's Caper, and it looked like Karen's Caper won it on the outside. She had a nose in front before the wire and a head in front after the wire. But on the wire, where it counts, Bejarano had Sweet Talker's head down while Karen's Caper’s head was back. After a long, agonizing wait for the photo and the increasing possibility that it might be a dead-heat, Sweet Talker was posted the winner, giving trainer Helen Pitts her first Grade 1 win after being Ken McPeek's assistant for years. Luckily for me, I bet Karen's Caper across the board, and with the longest shot on the board winning, the respective place and show prices of $12.60 and $6.40 softened some of the blow of losing an improbable photo. And, I was happy that my extra work actually paid off this time. As for the Breeders’ Cup, the Europeans will be out in force for the three turf races. In 2001, Banks Hill (GB) (Danehill), who was a miler in England, was able to win the Filly & Mare Turf by riding the hedge on firm ground and getting 10 furlongs successfully. In the Breeders' Cup Turf that year, the conventional wisdom was that Sakhee, winner of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) in his last start, would go in the Turf, and Fantastic Light would go in the Breeders’ Cup Classic since he was deemed to be better at 10 furlongs than 12 furlongs. Trainer Saeed bin Suroor took the risk of running Sakhee in the Classic, where he looked like a winner before Tiznow came on again in the stretch to repeat in a flashback to the year before when he won over Giant's Causeway. Fantastic Light won the Turf with a heady ride by Frankie Dettori and, just like Banks Hill, benefited from the firm turf. This year, I would have ordinarily recommended European shippers like Karen’s Caper that did their best racing on "good" turf in England or Ireland since that will be what they most likely will run over. But, Belmont Park has been deluged with rain the past two weeks and turf racing has become a distant memory. With cooler weather and shorter daylight, drying conditions are not good. And, this just in, Hurricane Wilma is expected to cross Florida this coming weekend and head up the East Coast. Even if it doesn't directly hit land on its journey up the Atlantic, its remnants often bring huge amounts of rain. This should happen a few days before the Breeders' Cup and could leave its mark on the event. On top of already drenched turf courses, Belmont figures to get even wetter by October 29. We might see a dried-out fast track and unusually soft turf courses like we did in 1995 when Ridgewood Pearl (GB) won the Mile in 1:43.65. So, the game plan is this:
Next week, I will try to implement all this advice and analyze all eight Breeders' Cup races.
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