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PREAKNESS REPORT MAY 10, 2012 by James Scully I'll Have Another and Bodemeister met for the first time in the Kentucky Derby and these exciting colts appear likely to continue their rivalry in the Preakness Stakes two weeks later. Before mentioning a couple of talking points for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, here are some quick thoughts on the Derby result: * The Southern California prep races -- Santa Anita Derby, San Felipe and Robert B. Lewis -- were strongest, producing the Kentucky Derby winner (I'll Have Another), runner-up (Bodemeister), fifth-placer (Creative Cause) and sixth-placer (Liaison). * Post 19 benefited I'll Have Another while Post 4 turned out to be disastrous for Union Rags; and being inside the rest of the speed did not affect Bodemeister, who easily sped through wicked early splits of :22 1/5, :45 1/5 and 1:09 4/5 after breaking from post 6. * Bodemeister was rolling on a speed-friendly track that produced track record-setting performances in both sprints and routes over the weekend. * The criticisms of I'll Have Another's Speed rating (98 BRIS) in the Santa Anita Derby and doubts about his quality based upon the fact that he finished less than a length ahead of a massive longshot were completely off base; the Speed number was negatively influenced by a slow pace, which essentially led to a false performance from the 42-1 longshot. It was a lightning-quick surface on Santa Anita Derby day, with splits of :21 4/5, :44 1/5 and 1:07 3/5 two dirt races earlier on the program, and the pacesetter in the Santa Anita Derby was lone speed setting moderate internal fractions of :47 and 1:11. After being two lengths clear with only three-eighths of a mile remaining, former claimer Blueskiesnrainbows managed to remain in the frame while recording a non-threatening third, but it was misleading; he would've never been close to the top two finishers (I'll Have Another and Creative Cause) under a legitimate pace scenario. * Third-placer Dullahan lost a ton of ground when forced to circle extremely wide into the stretch and Went the Day Well got beat up during the early stages before uncorking a dynamic late rally for fourth; both left their supporters wondering what could've been with a better trip. * The soft approach -- a one-turn allowance followed by a lone stakes appearance in the Wood Memorial -- did not work for the previously unbeaten Gemologist, who enjoyed a perfect trip before checking out of the action on the far turn and retreating to 16th. It was easy to understand why Todd Pletcher gave Uncle Mo a similar campaign last spring -- the two-year-old champion was battling an undiagnosed liver problem -- but Gemologist, the 8-1 third choice in the Kentucky Derby, did not thrive upon the light schedule (he recorded only one half-mile workout in the 14 days leading up to the race). It will be interesting to see if Pletcher keeps going back to this strategy. Preakness points With Hansen signed on, the post position draw will likely determine the pacesetter as it did in the Derby. Bodemeister wound up committed to the lead when Trinniberg and Hansen drew to his outside, but roles will be reversed in the Preakness if Hansen draws inside. The Derby winner could benefit once again from an ultra-quick pace that softens up Bodemeister. However, Bodemeister remains a threat to win on talent alone regardless of the pace scenario. Trainer Bob Baffert doesn't want Bodemeister to be a one-dimensional speedball; he would love to sit to the outside of Hansen in second, with Bodemeister waiting to strike when called upon. That is what happened with War Emblem, who changed tactics after leading wire-to-wire in the 2002 Derby. In the Preakness, War Emblem conceded the early advantage, racing up close in second under a snug hold as Menacing Dennis showed the way through the opening six furlongs. War Emblem advanced to the fore on the far turn and dominated the rest of the way, bouncing forward into the Preakness like so many Derby winners do. Since the last Triple Crown sweep in 1978, 11 of the 30 Derby winners who crossed the Preakness finish line wound up in the winner's circle. That's a 37 percent success rate. Baffert talks about it all the time: he didn't need to do anything with Silver Charm, Real Quiet or War Emblem to get them to maintain their form at Pimlico. Trainer Doug O'Neill basically needs to stay out of his horse's way because I'll Have Another is probably ready to fire another big shot off the two-week rest. I will preview the Preakness next Friday.
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