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PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING DECEMBER 8, 2005 Triple Crown Dilemma by Tim Holland The sad, but not totally unexpected, news arrived last week that 2005 Preakness (G1) and Belmont S. (G1) winner Afleet Alex had been retired from racing. Unraced since his impressive Belmont win, Afleet Alex is but the latest victim of the Triple Crown series, which many believe has become outdated and unsuitable for the modern day Thoroughbred. The president of the Breeders' Cup, D.G. Van Clief, told the Baltimore Sun, "Nothing is forever and at some point we all may be well-advised to take a look at this series as to whether it can be improved." Radical proposals to change the current format have included making the Triple Crown open to four-year-olds or stretching out the time frame -- perhaps running the Kentucky Derby (G1) in May, Preakness in June and Belmont in September. With the last Triple Crown winner being Affirmed way back in 1978, horse racing is indeed long overdue for a hero. Top horses such as Cigar and Holy Bull have done their best to fill the void and in more recent years, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex have all captured tremendous public interest, as much through their individual stories as for their on-track achievements. All three of these rode the Triple Crown trail hard only to come up one leg short, and all suffered from the toll it took on them. The gelding Funny Cide is still racing, but he has never recaptured the brilliance that he showed winning the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness in a runaway. However, the premature retirements of Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex have provided the major impetus for more and more people calling for change. The 1970s could be described as the "Golden Years" for the Triple Crown. Not only did Affirmed, Seattle Slew and Secretariat sweep, they were able to continue their greatness after the series. Add to that trio 1979 Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Spectacular Bid, and the 1980s had a lot to live up to. While no Triple Crown winners emerged in the 80s, many horses tackled all three legs and were able to withstand the rigors and thrive afterward. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer continued their rivalry through the Breeders Cup in 1989, and dual classic winner Alysheba came within a nose of winning the 1987 Classic (G1), falling short to 1986 Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand, before returning at four to earn Horse of the Year honors. The next decade started out well enough with Unbridled taking the Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic in the same season, but it became apparent in the following years that the wear and tear of the Triple Crown trail was taking its toll. Grindstone, the 1993 Derby victor, never raced again, and Charismatic (1999) broke down in the Belmont. Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners Silver Charm (1997) and Real Quiet, (1998) were both exceptions, recording Grade 1 successes at four, but neither raced again at three following the Belmont. This century has produced just two Derby winners so far who have managed a Grade 1 victory after the Triple Crown series. Funny Cide took a weak Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) the year following his Derby win, and War Emblem won an even poorer edition of the Haskell Invitational at odds of 0.30-1. In addition to Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones, other promising Triple Crown contenders who have been prematurely retired in the past six seasons include Monarchos, Point Given and Empire Maker. The top three finishers in this year's Derby were done for the year after the Belmont. While it is clear that some change needs to occur to halt this recent trend, it pays to examine why this is happening. Why, for example, did Derby winners in the 1960s and 70s average more than 20 lifetime starts each, while now we are lucky if they make more than 10 appearances on the racetrack? Many are quick to blame the breeders and a change in the economics of the bloodstock industry. Over the last 20 years or so, many of the larger breeding farms have changed their focus from raising race horses to race to producing yearlings for sales. With many new players from around the world bringing in millions of dollars, sale prices for yearlings have skyrocketed. Looking a for quick return on their money, buyers concentrate on yearlings that should be able to race early in their careers and be fast. Many of these yearlings are sired by stallions that are now labeled "commercial" and are in such demand that they breed over a hundred mares each season. Elusive Quality (sire of Smarty Jones) and Tale of the Cat, who produced last year's Derby runner-up, Lion Heart, are good examples of commercial stallions. Unfortunately, an undesirable by-product of this breeding for speed is fragility, and it is this that can be blamed for the shortened span of many of our top horses' racing careers. As many breeders change their strategies to appeal to the sales market, it should follow that this would put the traditional breeders at an advantage. The farms that keep their stock for racing, and still breed for soundness rather than speed, should be able to win big races while the fragile, speed types fall by the wayside. However, this is not the case. Two of the reasons are track surfaces and medications. Within the last 20 years, there has been a major change in the way racetracks manage their racing surfaces. In the mid-80s, tracks, in general, were deep, safe and slower. But now, in order to draw the high-priced, speed-slanted three-year-olds, track managements will accommodate them by making their surfaces as fast as possible. Two examples that come to mind from this year's Triple Crown prep races are Bellamy Road's (Concerto) wire-to-wire victory in the Wood Memorial (G1), where he earned a 115 BRIS figure, and High Limit's (Maria's Mon) front-running domination of the Louisiana Derby (G2). On both occasions, the tracks were producing exceptionally fast final times and speed horses were able to take full advantage. On Derby Day this year, the Churchill Downs main track was lightening fast. Apart from the Derby, when Giacomo was able to take advantage of the false pace set by Bandini's (Fusaichi Pegasus) "rabbit," no runners achieved success by coming from off the pace all day. These fast, speed favoring tracks soon leave their mark on horses who have to race over them time and again. Meanwhile the issue of medication has become very prevalent over the last couple of decades. Without a doubt, permitted raceday use of the pain killer "Bute" (Phenylbutazone) and the anti-bleeding medication "Lasix" (Furosemide) have contributed to the unsoundness problems that we have today. With the help of these drugs, trainers are able to make minor problems disappear, at least for long enough to make it through one or two races. So what needs to be done to the Triple Crown? A short term remedy that makes sense is to extend the time between the three legs to give the competitors a chance to recover. However, that is not enough by itself. The breed will continue to deteriorate, leaving more potential stars to fall by the wayside, if we don't address the other problems. One possible long-term cure is already in the works. Many tracks are considering switching to the easier, less speed-favoring Polytrack surface, which has the potential to have a far-reaching effect on the sport. The emphasis on speed will be negated by the new surface, and horses are expected to remain sounder, which will extend racing careers. That could go a long way to bringing back the more traditional type runners we used to see on the Triple Crown trail. A second cure, but one that will take a lot longer to implement, will be the elimination of race day medications. While it is unrealistic to expect this to happen tomorrow, it will surely have to happen someday for the sake of the breed.
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