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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS MAY 26, 2006 by Dick Powell Here's what we know at this point in time (Thursday morning) about last week's Preakness S. (G1). We will try to avoid speculation as much as possible and stick to the facts when we know them. Having digitally recorded the NBC Preakness coverage in high-definition TV, I have gone back and watched it over and over; sometimes frame by frame. Let's review. At the Preakness, the horses are saddled on Pimlico's turf course. There's plenty of space and none of the claustrophobic conditions that many saddling enclosures experience on big-race days. NBC did a great job showing tape of BARBARO (Dynaformer) acting up at the Florida Derby (G1) when trainer Michael Matz tightened the girth during the saddling process. NBC then showed almost identical behavior by Barbaro at the Kentucky Derby (G1) when he was saddled there. On Saturday, Barbaro ran true to form but instead of acting up as he did in his last two races, he was saddled as he was being walked around and Matz was able to get the saddle on him without too much trouble. This was normal behavior for Barbaro and did not indicate that anything was wrong. The only undefeated Triple Crown winner, Seattle Slew, acted crazy before every race. That was normal behavior for him so if you saw him washing out before a race you understood that this was normal. Once on the track, Barbaro looked somewhat more agitated than expected. He behaved well but a couple of times he bucked his hind end. Edgar Prado seemed unconcerned and at no point did Barbaro show any signs of washing out. If a horse is ready to run and can't wait to go, that is a positive sign. If a horse has something bothering him he usually will show signs of fretting and worrying which results in sweat between the horse's hind end, on his shoulders and below his belly. Even though Barbaro was acting hot, he was as calm as a cucumber. Sounds contradictory but it's not. He walked into the starting gate without turning a hair. After DIABOLICAL (Artax) loaded into the far outside stall of the starting gate, Barbaro broke through the gate. Prado did a great job of keeping him from running off without getting into a wrestling match. The two Pimlico outriders did their job by blocking Barbaro's path to run any farther and Prado was able to get him turned around. At this point, NBC showed a close-up shot of Michael Matz and he looked very concerned. Barbaro was walked back to the gate and was gingerly steered through a narrow gap between the tractor that pulls the starting gate and the outer rail. As he walked through this gap NBC went to a replay of Barbaro breaking through the starting gate. Both live and on tape it did not look like Barbaro was any worse for wear. He was examined by the vet behind the gate and loaded back into the starting gate. I have watched the starting gate incident as if it were the "Zapruder film" and I don't see any evidence of anything wrong with Barbaro physically or mentally. When the gate opened, Barbaro did not break particularly well. As expected, LIKE NOW (Jules) went to the front but Diabolical did not show expected speed from the outside. Kent Desormeaux broke SWEETNORTHERNSAINT (Sweetsouthernsaint) well and he went up to get involved early. Javier Castellano aboard BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy) had to be relieved that Diabolical did not come over on him from the outside post so he was a clear third as they headed to the finish line for the first time. Amazingly, BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark), who was expected to use the tactical speed that was so successful for him this winter and spring at Santa Anita, was far back early. As the field began to make their way over toward the inside approaching the finish line, it looked like Edgar Prado tried to swing Barbaro to the outside for a stalking trip. Just as he did, his right rear pastern snapped and Barbaro was in great distress. Prado was able to pull Barbaro up in a gallant display of horsemanship. After running only a furlong, Barbaro was still full of energy and Prado was able to get him to stop and unseat without causing any more harm. Even though he was on three legs, Barbaro never went down. He stood on three legs with his right, rear ankle hanging by a thread. Luckily, the bones of the multiple fractures never pierced the skin so there was no infection in the wound from the dirt of the track. At this point, as grim as things looked, you could find some degree of optimism in the fact that Barbaro never went down and hurt himself further, he did not suffer a compound fracture and Pimlico is within easy driving distance to the University of Pennsylvania's New Bolton Center, a state-of-the-art equine vet facility that would be able to perform the necessary surgery. In less than 20 seconds, Barbaro's career was over, his life threatened, and the Preakness was any horse's race. Like Now held the lead down the backstretch with Sweetnorthernsaint putting the heat on. After breaking poorly, Alex Solis sent Brother Derek up on the outside to engage the leaders and Castellano yielded to him and dropped Bernardini back to fourth. With three across the track and a fast pace -- six furlongs in 1:10.24 -- Bernardini was getting the perfect trip. Midway around the turn, Castellano pressed the button and the response was immediate. He passed a fading Brother Derek on the inside and swung out to go after Like Now and Sweetnorthernsaint. Neither offered much resistance and Bernardini won the race in the time it takes from midway on the far turn to the top of the stretch. The only question would be how far would he win by. Bernardini poured it on through the stretch and won by 5 1/4 lengths over Sweetnorthernsaint with HEMINGWAY'S KEY (Notebook) rallying from far back to get third. Bernardini's final time of 1:54.65 was excellent on a track that played to par all day and considering that he was wide for most of the trip, it was even better than the teletimer portrayed. It was only his fourth career start and the first ever Triple Crown success for the Darley Stable of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. If you use the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, you knew that Bernardini's last win in the Withers S. (G3) earned a 110 Speed figure and meant that he had Grade 1 talent. On Saturday, Bernardini earned a BRIS speed figure of 114; faster than Barbaro's 109 Kentucky Derby speed figure. We'll never know how he would have done with Barbaro running the whole race, but it would have been a sight to see. After the race, NBC was much too speculative about Barbaro's appearance before the race. After doing a great job showing how hard he was to saddle in his prior two races, host Tom Hammond was now questioning his need to be saddled on the run. He kept returning to the dynamic energy that Barbaro was exhibiting before the race as if it were a sign of something being wrong with his condition. With many casual fans watching the race, all NBC did was raise even more speculation about what had just happened. It has been painful to read and hear about all the conspiracy theories being tossed around. Our sport took a big hit on Saturday and NBC only made it worse. Miraculously, Barbaro had successful surgery and even with a long, bumpy road to recovery he's doing amazingly well. In the final kick to the teeth of this year's Triple Crown, Darley Stables announced that Bernardini would not contest the Belmont S. (G1) coming up in three weeks. They felt that it was too much too soon and who can question that logic at this point. ***** There are two main questions about this year's Preakness. When was the last time a horse won a classic race in his two-turn debut? It's possible that sometime in the past a New York-based horse could have done it since the major juvenile races in the fall at Belmont are at one-turn and the only two-turn New York prep race is the Wood Memorial (G1). As far as I can see it has never happened. Until Bernardini, that is. Second, how good is DISCREET CAT (Forestry)? He won the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2) by six easy lengths and left in his wake was INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes), a South American three-year-old that was an undefeated champion in Uruguay. Invasor had been training in South Florida for Kiaran McLaughlin before he shipped to Dubai and returned after the race to New York. He showed up in the Pimlico Special (G1) last Friday with first-time Lasix and despite being younger than anyone in the race was able to come again in the stretch and win by 1 1/4 lengths. So much for the Dubai jinx of how horses that go over there never recover. This guy is winning a Grade 1 seven weeks later. We might soon get a chance to find out the answer to our question since Discreet Cat is now at Belmont and should be on the workout tab next week. He’s being pointed toward the Dwyer Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles on July 4th and we could see him in Saratoga after that. ***** There will be no Handicapping Insights from this author next week. I will be vacationing with my wife in Hawaii and have been read the riot act about bringing my laptop with me. You can't place a value on peace on the homefront.
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