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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JULY 4, 2014 by Dick Powell Saratoga is coming and it's coming fast. The 151st season of racing begins in two weeks and it seems like only yesterday that California Chrome was going for the Triple Crown. With the meet extended to 40 days, July 18 is the earliest the Saratoga meet can begin since closing day, Labor Day, is September 1 this year. This year's meet stands to be interesting in the sense that there is a small changing of the guard within the riding colony. Javier Castellano won last year's title by 20 wins over Johnny Velazquez and 25 over Joel Rosario. I don't see anything being different this year as Castellano seems to have his pick of the best mounts from leading trainers Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown. At this point in his career, he still rides more horses than anyone else -- 322 mounts in 40 days of racing last year. Velazquez and Rosario seem to concentrate on the major races and don't ride as often as they used to. When the big money is on the line, they are most likely to be riding a contender but less likely to be found in cheaper races like maiden claimers on the turf. Castellano will eventually cut back but so far there is no indication that he will. Last year, going into Saratoga, Castellano had a huge lead in the Belmont spring/summer meeting and wound up 14 wins ahead of Junior Alvarado. This year, Castellano is ahead by five wins, with two weeks of racing left, but underneath him are the Ortiz brothers who continue to make noise. Irad Ortiz Jr. is five wins behind Castellano in second place where last year he was in fourth place. He has a consistent pattern of winning more races going long than short. This year, he is winning 25 percent of his route mounts compared to 17 percent with his sprint mounts. Brother Jose is in third place this year but was ninth last year at this meet. He is just the opposite of brother Irad as he wins 20 percent going long but 24 percent going short. Ironically, on the turf, both Ortiz brothers win at a 14 percent rate. As the leading riders age, they ride fewer races and a vacuum is created. One who might make a move up is five-pound apprentice rider Taylor Rice. She's winning 17 percent overall for 2014 and is a dangerous combination of a five-pound weight allowance and a ton of experience. She is currently tied for eighth in the Belmont standings with Alvarado. What makes Rice intriguing at Saratoga is that she gets horses out of the starting gate extremely well and should fit well in all the turf sprints that are run up here. Speed does much better in turf sprints at Saratoga than it does at Belmont and main track sprints are also kind to front-end runners. Rice, along with her aunt Linda, should be right at home. She only began riding last August so she is in the fourth quarter of her apprentice career where the five pound "bug" more than makes up any lack of experience. Jose Lezcano was the sixth leading rider at Saratoga last year and is currently seventh at Belmont. He still does his best work on the turf but has developed a nasty habit of restraining his mounts early to the point of taking them out of the race. We will probably see more turf races than ever before at Saratoga, weather permitting. According to the statistics provided in the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances, here is how the top riders that are likely to be at Saratoga perform on the turf (50 or more turf rides in 2014):
Amazingly, both Castellano and Velazquez show a flat-bet profit with their 2014 turf rides. Last year there were over 60 turf sprints carded and next week we will take a closer look at them. Keep in mind that, as we discussed last week, speed is not holding up this year on the inner turf course where most of the Belmont turf sprints are carded so many speed horses are running against severe biases.
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