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ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN JUNE 8, 2006 by James Scully The Belmont S. (G1) brings an end to the Triple Crown and no three-year-old will compete in all three races this year. It began with an amazing performance from the unbeaten Barbaro (Dynaformer) in the Kentucky Derby (G1), one that held such promise for what was to come in Baltimore and New York City, but turned horrific soon after the start of the Preakness S. (G1). Bernardini (A.P. Indy) still ran a big race to win the second jewel in the series, but his connections elected to skip the 138th Belmont. There are five Derby holdovers, two Preakness runners and five newcomers to the Triple Crown in Saturday's 1 1/2-mile event. The Derby contingent is strong. Runner-up BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat), third STEPPENWOLFER (Aptitude), fourth (via dead-heat) JAZIL (Seeking the Gold), eighth DEPUTY GLITTERS (Deputy Commander) and 17th placer BOB AND JOHN (Seeking the Gold), the lone Grade 1 winner in the Belmont line-up, all bring solid credentials to the table. Bluegrass Cat heads a formidable two-horse Todd Pletcher duo. A 6 1/2-length maiden winner at Belmont in late September, Bluegrass Cat likes the track (two-for-two overall), also scoring in the one-mile Nashua S. (G3) in late October. The bay colt will likely be up close to the early pace with his natural speed and will be reunited with regular rider John Velazquez, who returned to the saddle right where he left off when injured in April, winning his first two starts back last weekend. Bluegrass Cat is obviously a major player. Steppenwolfer and Jazil are improving types who love to close from far out of it. There could be a decent pace up front and both are a threat to step forth with a powerful finish. Deputy Glitters will be overlooked in the wagering and brings class concerns into this event, but throw out his wet track efforts and he looks intriguing. After suffering an extremely rough trip, the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner was still able to finish well through the long stretch at Churchill Downs, and he's got the pedigree to handle 12 furlongs on top (sire Deputy Commander captured the Travers [G1] and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic [G1]). Bob and John is trained by Bob Baffert, who finished second in two Belmonts before saddling Point Given to a resounding 12 1/4-length decision in 2001, and the dark bay colt would relish a wet track, winning the Wood Memorial (G1) over a sloppy Aqueduct surface. Bob and John has been training forwardly at Santa Anita, drilling six and seven-furlong works in recent weeks, and will be up close to the pace under Garrett Gomez. HEMINGWAY'S KEY (Notebook) took third in the Preakness, his first top three finish in five starts this year, and is trained by Nick Zito, who showcased his Belmont skills when saddling Birdstone to an upset over Smarty Jones in 2004 and Andromeda's Hero (Fusaichi Pegasus) to a surprising second-place finish last year. Hemingway's Key probably isn't good enough to be a serious factor on Saturday, but throw Zito out of the exotics at your own risk. PLATINUM COUPLE (Tale of the Cat), who finished sixth in the Preakness, is probably in over his head. SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado) could be this year's Sarava, A.P. Indy, Hansel or Go and Go (Ire). He'll make his first start in the Triple Crown and his belated debut came as the result of limited graded earnings, which excluded him from the Derby. Pletcher decided to run him in the May 20 Peter Pan S. (G2) instead of the Preakness, giving the full brother to multiple champion Ashado another race over the track, and Sunriver rallied boldly through the stretch to catch a game Lewis Michael (Rahy) in the latter stages, overcoming a slow pace over a speed-favoring strip off an seven-week layoff. He earned a career best 103 BRIS Speed rating and 118 Late Pace figure, and Sunriver is a strong candidate to improve off that performance on Saturday. HIGH FINANCE (Talk is Money) and DOUBLE GALORE (Grand Slam) could both add to the pace while making their stakes debut in the Belmont, and SACRED LIGHT (Holy Bull) and OH SO AWESOME (Awesome Again) are both late runners. It would be a big surprise to see any of these four newcomers in serious contention in deep stretch. The Belmont shapes up to be a good betting race. The undercard is appealing, especially the Manhattan H. (G1) with its stellar cast of turf horses, and there is a guaranteed $1 million Pick 6 pool and $1 million Pick 4 pool on the program. As far as the outcome of the Belmont, it's difficult to get past Pletcher. The two-time reigning Eclipse Award-winning conditioner is poised to win his first Triple Crown event. Sunriver is my top selection. The improving colt should relish the added distance with his pedigree and owns the tactical speed to ensure a perfect trip in midpack before striking. Rafael Bejarano, a rising star in the jockey division who earned his first Breeders' Cup win aboard Intercontinental (GB) (Danehill) last October, has the mount, and Sunriver looks ready to step up with his first major win. I'll also use Bluegrass Cat in multi-race wagers as well as Deputy Glitters, who looms as an upset candidate as long as the track is fast and dry. Deputy Glitters can be tossed over a wet track (there is a chance of rain Friday and Saturday), and mud larks Bob and John and Jazil will serve as alternates over an off surface.
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