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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 16, 2014 by Dick Powell Predicting which stallions are going to be successful is a lot harder than it looks. Championship bloodlines and race record are not always enough. Some of it is explainable and some of it is not. Last year, the first crop of Sea Stars hit the races in Europe. Not only did he "tick all the boxes," he retired to a neutral stallion barn in Ireland so that both Coolmore and Godolphin could breed to him. As a racehorse, Sea the Stars was sensational; winning the 2000 Guineas (Eng-G1) going a flat mile and the Epsom Derby (Eng-G1) going 1 1/2 miles down the hill against three-year-olds, and he concluded his racing career with a victory in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) against older rivals. There was nothing Sea the Stars could not do on a racetrack. And he was destined to do so being by Cape Cross out of Urban Sea, who not only won the Arc herself but produced the great Galileo as well as six other stakes winners. His first book of mares was sensational but his first crop to race in 2013 was a bit disappointing as he sired only one group stakes winner. However, all the inside information said he was sitting on a bunch of talented horses as three-year-olds. This year, it didn't take long for the first crop of foals to race by Sea the Stars to excel at three. He has sired three Group 1 stakes winners, including the Oaks at Epsom and German Derby as well as a bunch of group and listed stakes winners. In fact, of the four horses that are currently fancied for this year's Arc, two of them are sired by Sea the Stars. So for Sea the Stars, it was just a matter of time. Super Saver went to stud as a Kentucky Derby winner that might have been a fluke due to a sloppy track that looked like it was groomed for him. He did nothing afterwards so he only won one race at three. But at two, he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs. He skipped the Breeders' Cup that year and was one of the best juveniles of his generation on dirt. At stud, he started off well with his first yearlings going for an average of $91,640. His two-year-olds were real eye-openers this year as they averaged $140,382 and many sold for big bucks. On the racetrack, Super Saver has already produced a Grade 2 stakes winner, a listed stakes winner and four other winners. His best offspring might be Saratoga debut winner Competitive Edge who romped by 10 lengths and covered six furlongs in 1:09.89. He is being pointed for the Hopeful Stakes (G1) at the end of the meet for Todd Pletcher. If you had any doubts about Super Saver as a sire, the early returns show that his youngsters can run and are worth betting. Every once in a while a horse appears on the scene with a first crop of foals to race that surprises everybody. This year, that horse is Warrior's Reward. He did not race at two and began to emerge as a second-tier stakes horse at three when he was second in the Northern Dancer (G3) at Churchill and second in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga. Warrior's Reward came back at four and won the Carter Handicap (G1) going seven furlongs and was second in two other graded stakes sprints. He went to stand at stud at Spendthrift Farm without much fanfare until his horses began to hit the track this year. His first crop of yearlings sold last year for $59,338 and then his two-year-olds in training averaged $76,508. For a stallion whose original stud fee was $12,500, these results were about par. But once the first crop of two-year-olds hit the track a few months ago, all hell broke loose. He had an amazing seven debut winners with four stakes horses including a stakes winner. They have come out running and there is no let up in sight. A friend of mine has a two-year-old by Warrior's Reward out of a stakes-producing mare and he is already receiving outrageous bids for a horse that has only had one breeze so far. The word is out on his offspring and if you were smart enough to breed to him in the beginning, you either have a horse that can run or a horse that others want for a lot of money.
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