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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS AUGUST 18, 2006 by Dick Powell Nobody likes to be stereotyped. It's unfair and often inaccurate. Yet, we do it every day in our handicapping. Case in point: Nick Zito. For years you could safely avoid betting Zito's first-time starters no matter how well bred they were or how well they were working. The typical Zito firster was one that needed a race and would be worth watching instead of wagering on. BRIS statistics used to show that Zito won only about 6 percent with his first-time starters. Sure, he would pop one every year at Saratoga -- Greenwood Lake in 1999, Birdstone in 2003, Commentator (Distorted Humor) in 2004 and Fabled (Tale of the Cat) in 2005 -- at decent odds, but you never knew which one was going to pop. Suddenly, before the Saratoga meet began, Zito rose to an 11 percent first-time out trainer. Not up there with Patrick Biancone, but still very respectable. If you still believed the stereotype on Zito, you weren't paying attention to recent trends. Early in the meet, I played a Zito firster who ran well but tired late. That was it for me. What a mistake. On August 5, he sent out IRISH ACE (Grand Slam) to win a maiden special weight against two-year-olds, paying $15.60. His next first-time starter was Righteous (Pulpit), who rallied for fourth going 5 1/2 furlongs in a good effort. Watch for him next time out. Zito's next first-time starter was Autobahn Girl (A.P. Indy), but she was no match for runaway Todd Pletcher first-time starter, PANTY RAID (Include). However, she still ran well for second and showed enough talent to bet next time out. Then, he went on a roll. Last Saturday, Zito sent out firster C P WEST (Came Home) to a sharp win going six furlongs on the main track, paying $8.20, then came back on Sunday with firster RUBY CROWN (Awesome Again), who dominated two-year-old fillies going six furlongs to give back $7.80. And on Wednesday, Zito sent out BOOGIE BOGGS (Dixie Union) to a sharp victory over two-year olds going 5 1/2 furlongs, returning a whopping $24.80. Considering that he had won with two of his last three first-time starters at Saratoga, the win price on Boogie Boggs was exceedingly generous. Zito has now started seven first-time starters at Saratoga and has won with four of them. His career statistics show a positive ROI with his firsters and the fact that none of this year's winners were favored and two of the four paid double-digit prices makes Nick Zito a terrific play in this spot. ***** I thought Hall of Fame rider Jerry Bailey retired earlier this year, but in Wednesday's Adirondack Breeders' Cup S. (G2), I had to check my program to see if he made a comeback I wasn't aware of. Magical Ride (Storm Cat) had the lead turning for home under heavy pressure from recent claim Tora (El Corredor). The pair of juvenile fillies dueled down the lane when Garrett Gomez finally got OCTAVE (Unbridled's Song) to find her best stride. Over a very tiring main track that has gotten cuppy from the recent sunny and dry weather, the two leaders began to tire inside the eighth pole and Gomez got into Octave in Bailey-like fashion. He violently shook the reins and cracked her with the left hand to urge her on. All the fillies were tiring, but Octave was tiring least of all and she surged to the lead in the final yards to win by 1 1/2 lengths over a late-closing True Addiction (Yes It's True). I was fortunate enough to bet Octave at nearly 10-1 odds, but on the far turn it looked like Gomez was already asking her for run with three furlongs to go. It was one of those races that I was not confident of during its running but I'll take the win nonetheless. They have been too few and far between to worry about style points. But a tip of the cap to Gomez who rode the hair off Octave in the stretch. One reason I bet Octave was that I have gotten sick and tired of letting Todd Pletcher-trained stakes horses beat me at generous odds. In the Adirondack, he sent out two starters and neither took much money. Yet, he gets the winner's share with another stakes win without being the favorite. In 6 1/2-furlong races at Saratoga, do not be too swayed by amazingly fast first quarters. Since the distance forces the race to be started with the far turn on the left, the starting gate is placed farther back than usual, resulting in a longer "run-up" to where the timing of the race begins. Wednesday's Adirondack saw a first quarter of :21.83, which was probably a fifth of a second faster than usual. Magical Ride did not tire in the deep stretch because of a fast first quarter-mile; she tired because the stretch at Saratoga is playing extremely slow, just like it did last year. ***** In last Saturday's Sword Dancer Invitational S. (G1), Pletcher sent out GO DEPUTY (Deputy Minister) to a convincing win that paid $15.40. This time, Eibar Coa was the rider with John Velazquez and Gomez in Chicago for the Arlington Park International Festival of Racing. No problem, as Coa did everything right and took advantage of a strange journey by Kent Desormeaux aboard odds-on favorite Relaxed Gesture (Ire) (Indian Ridge) that left many scratching their heads. A proven Canadian Grade 1 stakes winner at 12 furlongs, Relaxed Gesture is versatile enough to come from way back or press the pace. When Desormeaux took the lead out of the gate into the first of three turns on the inner turf course, I thought it was a great move since inside pace horses do well on the tight turns going marathon distances. But when they straightened out in the run to the finish line for the first time, Desormeaux restrained Relaxed Gesture back into fifth place, from where he never recovered. A relaxed gesture it was not nor were some of the gestures that the bettors of Relaxed Gesture gesticulated after the race. Out in Chicago last weekend, GORELLA (Fr) (Grape Tree Road [GB]) rallied from the back of the pack over a turf course that was a lot firmer than I expected and won the Beverly D. S. (G1) going away for Patrick Biancone and white-hot apprentice rider Julien Leparoux. This was the farthest she has ever won and, if you watched her against the boys in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), you can expect her to run back in that race this year. Film Maker (Dynaformer) broke up my exacta box with 14-1 longshot Live Life (Fr) (Linamix) by a half-length. In the Arlington Million, my exacta again finished first and third, with THE TIN MAN (Affirmed) going gate to wire after Victor Espinoza stole the race with ridiculously slow early fractions and our longshot Soldier Hollow (GB) (In The Wings [GB]) hung in the deep stretch and was outfinished by Cacique (Ire) (Danehill) for the place. The Tin Man won the Million at the age of eight, but will have to wait for next year to tie John Henry's record as the oldest Million winner. He galloped along in front as the rest of the field gave futile chase, and when the running got serious at the top of the stretch he threw in an amazing :22.71 last quarter. In the Secretariat S. (G1) for three-year-old turfers, SHOWING UP (Strategic Mission) won the race when Cornelio Velasquez put him on the lead and never looked back. With a faster pace, Showing Up ran the 10 furlongs of the Secretariat in 2:00.09, faster than The Tin Man's 2:01.35. However, Showing Up's six-furlong time was more than four seconds faster. Showing Up's win established him as the leading sophomore turf horse in America and, coupled with BARBARO's (Dynaformer) miraculous recovery, made for a memorable weekend for owners Gretchen and Roy Jackson. Out at Del Mar, PRINCIPLE SECRET (Sea of Secrets) recovered from a terrible start where he almost unseated Alex Solis and went on to win the Best Pal S. (G2) by three widening lengths. Sometimes horses stumble at the start and quickly recover but Principle Secret's poor start was as bad as can be without losing the rider. The fact that he went on to win showed great courage and raises doubts about some of his rivals in the Best Pal.
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