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THREE-YEAR-OLD DIARY APRIL 25, 2007 by James Scully Saturday's Lexington S. (G2) was upset city as SLEW'S TIZZY (Tiznow) orchestrated a 40-1 shocker in wire-to-wire fashion over the Polytrack at Keeneland. STARBASE (Tale of the Cat), who tracked the winner as the 36-1 second-longest shot on the board, completed the bomber exacta. Both horses paid $29.60 to place, and the 10-cent superfecta returned $4,856. BELGRAVIA (Mr. Greeley), the 9-5 favorite, finished last without Lasix. Despite suffering from a lung infection earlier this year, he wasn't given the juice for his sophomore debut on Saturday. And Belgravia apparently bled in the Lexington. Slew's Tizzy broke his maiden in mid-January at Turfway Park. Just like Dominican (El Corredor), who upset his rivals in the Blue Grass S. (G1) the previous Saturday at Keeneland, his only wins have come over Polytrack. Slew's Tizzy clipped heels and lost his jockey in the stretch of the Risen Star S. (G3) when making his stakes debut, and he entered the Lexington off a seventh in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Unchallenged most of the way through splits in :23 4/5, :48 and 1:12 2/5, Slew's Tizzy registered a 94 BRIS Speed rating for his 3 1/2-length decision. Trainer Greg Fox said he wasn't comfortable running a horse back on two weeks' rest, but no decision has been made yet. The lure of the Kentucky Derby (G1) will probably prove impossible to resist. Starbase recorded unplaced finishes in his last three stakes attempts, checking in fifth in the Lane's End S. (G2), seventh in the Southwest S. and sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2). With only $93,106 in graded earnings (25th on the list), the D. Wayne Lukas charge won't make the Derby field. His 90 Speed rating on Saturday was about par for him, and we can expect to see Starbase in the Preakness S. (G1). XCHANGER (Exchange Rate) threw himself back into the Derby picture with a 4 3/4-length romp in Saturday's Federico Tesio S. at Pimlico. The gray colt disputed the early pace before suddenly spurting clear on the far turn, quickly opening up by nearly 10 lengths as he reached upper stretch. Jockey Ramon Dominguez geared down the runaway winner in the final sixteenth of a mile, and Xchanger recorded a career-best 102 Speed rating. By virtue of winning the Sapling S. (G3) and placing in both the Delta Jackpot S. (G3) and Nashua S. (G3) at two, the Mark Shuman-trained colt ranks 15th on the graded earnings list. We won't be surprised to see him in the Derby starting gate, and Xchanger is a speedball. The final prep races are out of the way and we can now turn our sights toward how the runners prepare in the mornings for the main event. Trainers used to head to Churchill Downs early for at least one workout under the Twin Spires, but conventional wisdom has gone the way of the Polytrack, with about half the field training at Keeneland presently. Giacomo and Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) both shipped in to win without a breeze at Churchill, and that trend is going to become more prevalent in the future. One tool BRIS offers is Prime Power. It doesn't always select the Derby winner on top (Smarty Jones ranked second and Barbaro fourth), but it still has value. I've listed the Top 10 Derby horses by Prime Power below with comments. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (Albert the Great) (153.2) -- After finishing a close third to Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) in the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) two starts back, Nobiz Like Shobiz rebounded to capture the Wood Memorial S. (G1), attending the pace with the addition of blinkers. The Barclay Tagg-trained colt has earned triple-digit Speed ratings in five of six starts, and he worked five furlongs in a bullet :59 2/5 on Monday over Belmont's training track. Nobiz Like Shobiz owns plenty of speed, but he's proven effective when rating. HARD SPUN (Danzig) (151.5) -- Once-beaten colt posted a visually impressive win in the Lane's End S. (G2), registering a 106 Speed rating, and skipped a final prep in the Blue Grass S. (G1), meaning he'll enter the Derby off a seven-week hiatus. Trainer Larry Jones considered bypassing the Derby for the Lexington S. and Preakness (G1), but Hard Spun indicated to his conditioner that he liked Churchill when working five furlongs in a bullet 1:00 1/5 on April 12. Hard Spun has done his best running on the front end. CURLIN (Smart Strike) (150.1) -- Unbeaten colt will enter the Run for the Roses off three sensational performances, winning his debut by 12 3/4 lengths, the Rebel S. (G3) by 5 1/4 and the Arkansas Derby (G2) by 10 1/2. Inexperienced colts (unraced at two) don't win the Kentucky Derby, but Curlin has been labeled a "freak" by plenty of observers. Perhaps he is really special, capable of overcoming a lack of seasoning with an abundance of talent, but the chestnut colt must prove it first. The Steve Asmussen trainee has posted top-notch Speed ratings so far (101-101-102), and he can be placed anywhere. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (Distorted Humor) (149.3) -- Finished a close second when making his stakes debut in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) in late November and entered his sophomore season with plenty of buzz for Todd Pletcher. Everything started well, with an easy win in the Sam F. Davis S. and a second by a nose to champion Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but Any Given Saturday was suddenly no longer in vogue following a retreating third in the Wood. Watch out for the bounce back. Pletcher's two best Derby finishers, runners-up Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink, rebounded from a disappointing final prep to run their best race at Churchill, and Any Given Saturday had been very consistent prior to his last effort. SCAT DADDY (148.1) -- The Florida Derby (G1) wasn't the strongest prep this year, but Scat Daddy served notice with a 1 1/4-length decision. The Pletcher runner has really come on his last two starts, narrowly capturing the Fountain of Youth before recording a convincing tally last time, and jockey Edgar Prado has a chance for two straight Derby wins. Scat Daddy owns respectable Speed numbers (101-101-100), and his grinding run style could prove effective in the long stretch at Churchill. STREET SENSE (148) -- Loves Churchill, winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) by a record 10 lengths, and improved significantly off a third in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Keeneland last fall. Trainer Carl Nafzger is seeking a similar leap forward off Street Sense's runner-up finish in the Blue Grass, and we shouldn't be shocked if he gets it. Street Sense has shown his class in two excellent preps this year, and he showed no ill effects from the Blue Grass when turning in a sharp five-furlong work in :59 at Churchill on Tuesday. CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) (147) -- Hopeful S. (G1) winner finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Breeders' Futurity, but he lost all chance when avoiding Slew's Tizzy's mishap in the Risen Star in his sophomore debut. Circular Quay lived up to his billing with an authoritative 2 1/4-length score in the Louisiana Derby, but Pletcher decided to skip a final prep in the Wood and train the smallish colt up to the Derby off a 56-day vacation. He'll look like a genius if this unconventional approach works. LIQUIDITY (Tiznow) (145.9) -- Maiden winner finished a good second in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) and Sham S. (G3), but he didn't move forward in his next two outings, fading to sixth in the Louisiana Derby and fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Trainer Doug O'Neill remains very high on Liquidity, who worked six furlongs in a sharp 1:11 2/5 at Keeneland on Friday, and the bay colt will be fitted with new equipment to keep him more focused in the Derby. Hard to recommend off his last couple, but Liquidity remains an intriguing longshot play. STORMELLO (Stormy Atlantic) (145.5) -- Speedy colt ran a big race in the Fountain of Youth (missing by a nose) but faltered badly in the Florida Derby. Trainer Bill Currin has stated that Stormello could be rated in the Derby, but could that be anything but a smokescreen? The Grade 1 winner will likely play catch-me-if-you-can. GREAT HUNTER (Aptitude) (144.9) -- The O'Neill runner didn't show up with his best effort in the Blue Grass, fading to fifth after being soundly bumped in the upper stretch, but he's eligible to show more next time. Bred to handle 10 furlongs, the classy juvenile (Grade 1 winner around two turns) displayed excellent acceleration when capturing his three-year-old bow, the Bob Lewis S. (G2), and Great Hunter has posted 108 BRIS Late Pace ratings in both starts this year. He's an interesting bounce-back candidate. Knocking on the door of the Top 10 are Illinois Derby (G2) winner COWTOWN CAT (Distorted Humor) (143.5) and Grade 1-placed SAM P. (Cat Thief) (143.3). I'll offer a final preview of the Derby next week.
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