|
|
THREE-YEAR-OLD DIARY MAY 16, 2007 by James Scully Kentucky Derby (G1) winner STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) will take his game on the road to Baltimore in Saturday's middle leg of the Triple Crown, and the Preakness S. (G1) always represents a return to normalcy following the madhouse environment of the Derby. A field of nine appears likely at Old Hilltop. We'll find out whether Street Sense is the same horse away from Churchill. He's turned in solid efforts at Tampa Bay Downs, Keeneland and Arlington Park in the past, but his two best races have come under the Twin Spires. The dark bay has also been extremely fortunate in those efforts, closing up the rail without interference in both the Derby and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He even took the shortest path when capturing the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Rival jockeys can't afford to allow Calvin Borel the same rail-skimming tactics in the Preakness. Street Sense owns top-class numbers (BRIS Speed ratings of 111 and 108 to his credit), and the late runner can accelerate very quickly. Sentimentally, I'd love to see him win and pursue the Triple Crown at Belmont Park, but Street Sense is a candidate to take a step back following his superb showing in the Derby. The Derby winner remains the horse to beat, but Street Sense isn't appealing at short odds at Pimlico. HARD SPUN (Danzig) ran a winning race in the Derby, but he won't get the uncontested early lead he enjoyed that afternoon. FLYING FIRST CLASS (Perfect Mandate) is a confirmed front runner whose only chance is on the lead, and Federico Tesio S. hero XCHANGER (Exchange Rate) is another new player with plenty of speed. Jockey Mario Pino will need to keep Hard Spun off the engine on Saturday, but the colt was geared for speed prior to the Derby and may prove too headstrong to rate. Larry Jones proved the doubters wrong who questioned the colt's blazing fast workout prior to the Derby. He will attempt to work his magic again, and Hard Spun has an edge with the Maryland-based Pino in the saddle. We just don't know what kind of trip Hard Spun will get. CURLIN (Smart Strike) is the wise-guy horse. Inexperience and traffic problems conspired against him at Churchill, but the well-built colt still managed to finish a respectable third. Many are expecting significant improvement off that effort. Curlin has plenty of room for advancement, with stirring victories in the Arkansas Derby (G2) and Rebel S. (G3) to his credit this year, and he has the tactical speed to sit a perfect trip in the Preakness before striking. One drawback is that Curlin has never earned a Speed rating better than 102. He also didn't beat much in Arkansas, so there's a question as to how good he really is. Despite these concerns, there's still a lot to like about Curlin's chances. CIRCULAR QUAY (Thunder Gulch) figures to be overlooked off his sixth in the Derby, but he'll enter the Preakness in much better shape. With only one real prep this year (jockey pulled him up and swerved to avoid a fallen rider in the Risen Star S. [G3]), the Grade 1 winner tried to win a 1 1/4-mile race against 19 opponents off a two-month layoff. It was no surprise to see that strategy backfire in the Derby. Todd Pletcher likes to talk about spacing out his horses' races, but he's never won a Triple Crown or Breeders' Cup race off a 30+ day layoff. Considering that Circular Quay is still a very fresh horse, Pletcher's decision to bring him back off a two-week rest makes perfect sense. This time around, his charge will be much more fit. I loved his effort in the Louisiana Derby (G2), when Circular Quay blew past his rivals to win convincingly while registering a 105 Speed and Late Pace number. The one-run closer had some traffic issues in the Derby, but it was obvious that Circular Quay didn't possess his normal finishing kick that afternoon. I'm looking for a return to form in the Preakness, and there will be plenty of pace to set up his late rally. As far as the other contestants, C P WEST (Came Home) and KING OF THE ROXY (Littleexpectations) are both talented colts who have done their best running at shorter distances, but it won't come as a major surprise to see one of them be a factor. Eventual Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) winner Cherokee Run faced a tall task at 1 3/16 miles in the 1993 Preakness, but he still managed to finish second. C P West has a better pedigree for the distance and Nick Zito in his corner, but he's dropped both starts this year, including a well-beaten second as the 9-5 favorite in the Withers S. (G3) last out. King of the Roxy looks much sharper. Pletcher should have him cranked up for a top showing, and the Ohio-bred colt has turned in two nice performances this year, winning the Hutcheson S. (G2) and finishing second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). I'd recommend considering him for the bottom of the exotics. Flying First Class is better around one turn, faltering badly when stretching out twice earlier this year. Xchanger has struggled in his last four starts against graded rivals, and MINT SLEWLEP (Slew City Slew) would be better served in the Barbaro S. on the undercard. I'm tabbing Circular Quay for the win. Curlin is also eligible to run a big race and scares me. After backing Street Sense in the Derby, I'm prepared to let him beat me in Baltimore. I'll use Circular Quay over Curlin, Street Sense and King of the Roxy.
 Send this article to a friend
|
|
