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HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS JUNE 8, 2007 by Dick Powell Racing raconteur Harvey Pack has a truism about never betting the favorite when they are trying something for the first time. Saturday's Belmont S. (G1) will be the first and only time that these horses will try to go 1 1/2 miles on dirt in their lives, so you have to hope whoever you like is not the favorite. At least you can time your choice close to post time on Saturday – I have to decide by Thursday night so here goes. As great as Curlin (Smart Strike) looked winning the Preakness S. (G1), it's hard for me to believe that he has another big bullet in his barrel. He was a good third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after getting shuffled back early but came back last out in the Preakness with a memorable stretch rally that saw him reel in Street Sense (Street Cry [Ire]) after being passed decisively in the deep stretch. Curlin showed guts and stamina in his Preakness win, but can he maintain his form in his third race in five weeks? How does the grueling stretch run of the Preakness affect his energy level this time? Does he have another big race in him, or will he begin to show signs of regressing as most horses do when coming off career-best races on relatively short rest? Hard Spun (Danzig) made an early move in the Preakness before weakening the last quarter-mile. His attempt to steal the Kentucky Derby on the front end was courageous, and he has the cruising speed that does so well in the Belmont. Mario Pino rode him in his first eight career starts, but now Garrett Gomez gets aboard for the first time. Gomez is one of the best there is, and if he has the lead in the homestretch, will be very hard to get by. For me, Hard Spun is the horse to beat. C P West (Came Home) made a good middle move in the Preakness before flattening out. Being out of a Dynaformer mare, he should have enough pedigree to get the distance, and trainer Nick Zito has an uncanny ability to get horses ready for this race. Having the great Edgar Prado in the irons only helps. Slew's Tizzy (Tiznow) has had an eventful year but turned it around in his last two starts. He won the Lexington S. (G2) at Keeneland on the Polytrack at a time when front-end speed was not doing well. Next time out, he shipped to Texas and won the Lone Star Derby (G3) on a sloppy track. His BRIS Speed Ratings are not competitive with the rest of this field, but he has dangerous early speed and has won on a wet track already. Imawildandcrazyguy (Wild Event) rallied for fourth in the Derby after dropping to last in the early going and rallying widest of all. He draws the rail, where cagey Mark Guidry can save ground while lagging behind and then make his one, big run. Even though Tiago (Pleasant Tap) finished seventh in the Derby, he galloped out well after the wire, giving every indication that 1 1/2 miles will be no problem. The half-brother to Derby winner Giacomo won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) two starts back and has worked well over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track for his third start in nine weeks. RAGS TO RICHES (A.P. Indy) could not have a better pedigree for success in the Belmont. Her sire, A.P. Indy, won the Belmont in 1992 and her dam produced last year's Belmont winner, Jazil (Seeking the Gold). She has not been beaten in three starts going two turns – all Grade 1s. There are a number of things I like about Rags to Riches and her chances on Saturday. First is her pedigree. Second is the fact that she comes into the Belmont fresh and fit while meeting horses that could be showing signs of fatigue from the grueling Triple Crown campaign. And, third, she gets five pounds from the rest of the field. When you see all seven horses in the paddock, it will be hard to pick out the filly since you'll see that she is at least as big as the boys. Rags to Riches' win in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) was sensational. From post 11, she stalked the pace four wide the entire trip on a muddy track and dominated after turning for home. Her BRIS Speed Rating of 109 was very competitive with the Derby run the next day, and she never saved ground at any point in her race. The Oaks was her first race off an eight-week layoff and now she has five weeks since then to the Belmont. She has thrived with rest between races and the fact that she had a relatively easy Oaks and time off should have her ready for her best in the Belmont. She showed in the Oaks that she's competitive with these and might be catching a tired group of horses at the perfect time and distance. Curlin should be the favorite and rightfully so. Hopefully, Hard Spun will be the second choice so we might get a decent price on Rags to Riches – 7-2? Gomez could not get out of his commitment to ride Hard Spun so Pletcher's main man, John Velazquez, gets the mount on the big filly for the first time. If she runs back to her Oaks effort, she's right there with these. We'll make a big win bet on Rags to Riches as well as an exacta box with Hard Spun. Beyond that, I'll key her in straight exactas over Tiago and C P West. There's little value with using Curlin, as good as he is, so the play is to leave him out completely. It's not the kind of Belmont that will yield boxcar mutuels so a rooting interest in Rags to Riches should suffice and we'll scour the rest of the card for better prices.
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