April 2002, Number 25
ALL-WaysTM Newsletter


Inside This Newsletter

 
ALL-Ways Version 9 and the BRIS Handicapping Challenge

Handicapping at Keeneland

ALL-Ways Data File Price Discounts


Announcements

ALL-Ways Software Version 9 Provides a Powerful Edge in the
BRIS Handicapping Challenge Contest 

The very popular BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest will be conducted in 2002 on consecutive Saturdays from April 6th through April 27th. As usual, ALL-Ways software handicappers will be able to download the special ALL-Ways contest data file and use it to drive ALL-Ways software and, at no extra cost, to print the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances.  And now, thanks to the new features introduced in Version 9, ALL-Ways software will provide you with an incredible edge in this important contest. This includes ALL-Ways software’s ability to automatically customize its handicapping to be optimized for each specific type of race run at each specific track on the contest race card. See the article on this page for a complete explanation of how to tap into this and other powerful ALL-Ways software capabilities to help you in this year’s contest. 

Unlimited Free ALL-Ways Data File Downloads for a Full Day of Racing in April


During the month of April 2002, you may select any race day and download as many ALL-Ways software data files as you like absolutely free of charge. For example, on a BRIS Handicapping Challenge Saturday, you can download ALL-Ways software data files for as many tracks as you like, you can download the ALL-Ways software special Contest data file and you can download any number of ALL-Ways Custom Card data files that meet your exact race specifications. See the ALL-Ways Price Discounts article on page 4 for details.
 



ALL-Ways Version 9 and the BRIS Handicapping Challenge

 

It is time again for the BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest. This year’s contest will provide $25,000 in cash and prizes as well as the opportunity to win an expense paid trip to Las Vegas for a chance to win the $100,000 DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship next January. The contestant that selects the most winners each Saturday will win $1,500. The contestant that ends up with the biggest bankroll (ROI) each Saturday will win $1,000.

 

Even if you are not yet an ALL-Ways software handicapper, you will surely want to give ALL-Ways software a try for the BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest. There are exclusive capabilities in ALL-Ways software that will give you a significant edge over your contest competitors who are not using ALL-Ways software. You may want to select Saturday, April 6th, the first day of the contest, for your free race day of ALL-Ways software data file downloads? And, because the ALL-Ways software data file also drives the BRIS Past Performance Generator software, you can print out the Ultimate Past Performances, also absolutely free. The balance of this article explains the exclusive features in ALL-Ways software that will help you in this year’s Handicapping Challenge contest as well as how best to take advantage of them.

 

Of all the powerful features in ALL-Ways software, one in particular stands out as a primary reason for the popularity of ALL-Ways software all across North America.  We are referring to the ALL-Ways software capability to automatically refine its handicapping approach for each race so it is optimized for the specific type of race being run at the specific track you are handicapping. In other words, ALL-Ways software handicapping is both race type and race track specific. Think how important this is for the contest race cards with many different types of races being run at several different tracks in North America.

 

Here is how this race-type/race-track specificity works. ALL-Ways software includes 71 different handicapping factors covering each horse’s suitability to the distance, suitability to the surface, current form, class level and ability to handle the probable pace and speed demands of the race. ALL-Ways software uses advanced multiple regression analysis techniques to determine which of these handicapping factors work best in combination with each other for each specific type of race run at each specific track you handicap. ALL-Ways software then creates handicapping profiles that are both race type and race track specific. The profiles are made up of the most powerful handicapping factors, weighted by their Impact Values. This is very powerful stuff!

 

So, how do you take advantage of this for the BRIS Handicapping Challenge? It really is quite simple. Race type and track specific profiles are posted in the User’s Corner of our Web site at www.frandsen.com for virtually every track in North America. Simply download the profiles for each track included in the contest card. Then, at handicapping time, ALL-Ways software will automatically load a full set of handicapping profiles for the specific track being handicapped.

 

ALL-Ways software gives you the freedom to select the specific profile you want it to use for the race you are handicapping by simply clicking on the profile name in the profile list. For first time ALL-Ways software users, we suggest you select a Race Pace Shape profile based on the following chart. 

                                          
Designated
Race pace Shape

EEE, EE

E, EP, EP-P

E-EP, EP-EP

P, PP, PS, S

ALL-Ways Race Pace Shape
Profile to Use

Fast pace Shape

Lone Early Pace Shape

Honest Pace Shape

Slow Pace Shape

 

 

If you have not already done so, you should read the article on ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes in ALL-Ways Newsletter #3. It may well influence the way you approach handicapping. The newsletter is on our Web site. Or, you can call us and we will send a copy to you.

 

Let’s pause a moment and see where we are. When you click the GO button to handicap the race,  ALL-Ways software will handicap the race optimally for the specific distance and surface category, for the specific pace match-up scenario of the race and for the specific track. Again, this is very powerful stuff!

 

There are many additional exclusive handicapping features in ALL-Ways software to help you in the BRIS Handicapping Challenge. Here are several of them.

 

•      The unique ALL-Ways Specific Distance Track Bias Profile covering 1st Call and 2nd Call positions and beaten lengths for both
        win and place horses. See the Keeneland article in this newsletter for an example of this powerful approach to bias statistics.

•      Hall pace (including Turn-Time) and speed figures showing how the horses have run compared to today’s Par Times and showing
        how each horse is likely to perform at today’s specific distance/surface.

•       Quirin Race Shapes showing how each horse has done in the past, running against different levels of pace pressure

•       Everything needed to handicap using Brohamer pace figures

•       The powerful Scott Performance Class rating as well as Scott Ability Times

•       Hambleton Form Points and Total Pace Ratings

•       The unique First Call Position and Stretch Gain Performance evaluations

•       ALL-Ways software race designations of Chaos, Contentious and Orderly

•       ALL-Ways software automatic handicapping of first time starters, integrating the results with the overall oddsline for all horses in
         the race

 

There is a whole lot more, as you will see if you give ALL-Ways software a try.

 

For first time ALL-Ways software users, here are the simple steps you should follow to take advantage of all these powerful capabilities.

 

1. Download and install the ALL-ways software from the Free Software area of BRIS’ Web site. We suggest you also download the User’s Manual. There is no need to print out the full manual at this point. It is in PDF format and you can just print a page or two if needed. We also suggest you use the sample ALL-Ways Race Card data file that is supplied  to do the practice handicapping session included in the easy-to-follow two page Quick Start Guide.

 

2. The night before the contest, download the ALL-Ways software data file for the contest from the Software Data Files download area on the BRIS Web site. Process this data file just as you did the sample in Step 1 above.

 

3. In the ALL-Ways Analysis Module, run the simple Race Card Summary Report. This will show you all the tracks included in the contest card as well as key information about each race.

 

4. Download the Handicapping Profiles posted on the Frandsen Publishing Web site for the tracks in the contest card. Simply download the files into a folder. Then go to the folder and double click on the file names. This will automatically enter all the profiles for ALL-Ways software to use. ALL-Ways software will automatically present you with the correct profiles for the track  you are handicapping.

 

5. Handicap the races just as you did in the practice handicapping session in Step 1 above. Use the Race Pace Shape profiles based on the chart shown earlier in this article.

 

That is all there is to it. We suggest first time users print out the Paceline Report. Just about everything you need to handicap a race is on this report including  pace, speed and class handicapping factors and comprehensive track bias statistics. Optionally, you can use the ALL-Ways software data file for the contest card to also print out the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances.

 

Current ALL-Ways software users can obviously use their own databases for tracks on the contest card and download profiles for other tracks.

 

So, why not use April 6th as your race day for free unlimited downloads of ALL-Ways software  data files. It is a great way to give ALL-Ways software a try. And, it just might give you the edge in the BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest that will get you to a nice pay day and, perhaps, all the way to Las Vegas.

 


Handicapping at Keeneland

 

The 2002 Spring racing meet at Keeneland will be conducted from April 6th through April 26th. You can count on some Keeneland races showing up on the BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest race card.  Because Keeneland only runs two very short meets each year, handicapping Keeneland races can be a real challenge. We thought it would be helpful, and certainly very timely, to provide some key handicapping information for Keeneland in this issue of our quarterly newsletter.

 

Let’s begin by looking at Keeneland track bias statistics. They are very interesting and will certainly be a help with your handicapping. We will use the popular ALL-Ways software format to evaluate winning horse’s position and beaten lengths statistics at the 2nd Call. We have 1,500 Keeneland races in the database that drives this data, but we limited our analysis to the 100 most recent races of each type. 

 

We will start by looking at dirt sprints. We learned a long time ago that it is important to treat 6 furlong and 7 furlong races differently at Keeneland as opposed to lumping them together as just dirt sprints.

 

Keeneland 2nd Call Bias Statistics

100 Recent 6 Furlong Dirt Races

 

  1 2 3 4 5 +
Position% 43 24 16 7 4 6
Beaten Lengths% 70 17 7 6 0 0

 

Here is how to read this chart. Forty three percent of winning horses were in first place at the 2nd Call. Sixty seven percent were either first or second (43% + 24%). Eighty three percent were either first, second or third at the 2nd Call (43% + 24% + 16%). Seventy percent of winning horses were on the lead or within one length of the leader at the 2nd Call. Eighty seven percent of the winners were either on the lead or within two lengths of the leader at the 2nd Call (70% + 17%). And wow, 100% of winners of 6 furlong dirt sprints were on the lead or within four lengths of the leader at the 2nd Call (70% + 17% + 7% + 6%).

 

Remember that Early Pace Ratings (BRIS EP and Hall EP) are measured at the 2nd Call and that one pace rating point is equal to about 1/2 length. If a horse figures to be more than four lengths back at the 2nd Call, it simply is a poor bet to win 6 furlong dirt sprints at Keeneland.

 

Keeneland 2nd Call Bias Statistics

100 Recent 7 Furlong Dirt Races 

 

                                    1     2     3     4     5     +

Position%                 31   19   13   14   11   12

Beaten Lengths%    55   20    7     5     2    11

 

Seven furlong dirt sprints are a bit more kind to horses coming from off-the-pace. Seventy five percent of the winners are either on the lead or within two lengths of the leader at the 2nd Call (55% + 20%). However, occasionally a mid-back Presser (P) horse or even a back-of-the-pack Sustainer (S) horse can get a win.

 

Now, let’s look at the 2nd Call position and beaten lengths statistics for dirt routes and turf routes.

 

Keeneland 2nd Call Bias Statistics

100 Recent  1 1/16 Mile Dirt Races 

 

                                    1     2     3     4     5     +

Position%                  35   28    7    10    6    14

Beaten Lengths%     67   22    3     2     2     4

 

This is a bit of an eye opener. Sixty seven percent of winners of 1 1/16 mile dirt routes were on the lead or within 1 length of the leader at the 2nd Call. A whopping 89 percent were on the lead or within two lengths of the leader (67% + 22%). Indeed, late running “S” horses have a woefully bad Impact Value of only 0.31. They win less than 1/3 their fair share of 1 1/16 mile dirt races.

 

Keeneland 2nd Call Bias Statistics

100 Recent  1 1/16 Mile Turf Races 

 

                                    1     2     3     4     5     +

Position%                  11   18   19   18   11   24

Beaten Lengths%     36   24   11   11   10   10

 

Well, we finally found races that off the pace horses can be expected to win, provided they have good turf form and/or good turf pedigree.  Most of these races are won by mid-pack “P” horses with a very high win Impact Value of 1.76. They win almost twice their fair share of races.

 

If you use ALL-Ways software to help you handicap the BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest races, ALL-Ways software will provide you with the 1st Call and 2nd Call position and beaten lengths statistics for each race and each track on the contest card. It does this for both win and place horses. And, it does this even if you are a first time ALL-Ways software user.  The information can be found on the Paceline Report.

 

Now, let’s take a look at the most powerful and profitable handicapping factors for Keeneland races based on their Impact Values and return on flat $2 win bets.

 

Keeneland Handicapping Factors

Non-Maiden 6 Furlong Dirt Sprints

 

  IV $2 ROI
ACL 1.65 $2.28
BRIS Back Speed 2.06 $1.73
BRIS Combined 2/3 2.33 $2.27
True Dirt EP 2/3 2.15 $2.83

 

ACL = Average Competitive Level

Combined = Early Pace(EP) + Final Fraction (FF)

 

Here is how to read this chart. Horses ranked first in Average Competitive Level win 1.65 times their fair share of races. If you wagered to win on every top ranked ACL horse, you would have won, on average, $2.28 for each $2 wagered for a return-on-investment of 14%.

 

There are a couple items of note regarding 6 furlong non maiden dirt sprints at Keeneland. First, all the BRIS and Hall Speed figures have strong Impact Values. However, no speed figure came even close to producing a flat bet profit on its own. Second, all 1st Call and 2nd Call pace ratings, both BRIS and Hall, had good IVs and produced flat bet profits. This is not surprising if you think back to the track bias discussion.

 

Keeneland Handicapping Factors

Non-Maiden 7 Furlong Dirt Sprints

 

  IV $2 ROI
Furlong Days(1.0 or higher) 1.62 $3.10
Race Good  2.50 $2.24
Hall Speed Last Race 1.89 $2.41
True Dirt Final Fraction 1.75 $3.07

 

Now, here is a really important piece of handicapping information. All the Early Pace figures that had good IVs and good flat bet profits for 6 furlong sprints “went South” on us for 7 furlong races. They all had lower IVs and flat bet losses. On the other hand, all Final Fraction figures, both Hall and BRIS, produced flat bet profits.

 

In the chart on page 3, Race Good is the highest BRIS Race Rating at which the horse ran a good race. Furlong Days is quite interesting. This is the sum of the distance of the horse’s last race plus the distance of each workout since its last race, divided by the number of days since the last race. A ratio between 0.75 to 1.0 is considered by many to be optimum. The figure above is based on horses with a Furlong Days ratio of one furlong per day or higher.

 

Let’s now take a look at maiden races.

 

Keeneland Handicapping Factors

Maiden Dirt Sprints (All Distances)

 

  IV $2 ROI
Workout Index of 2 1.38 $2.35
Furlong Days(1.0 or higher) 1.29 $3.28
BRIS Speed 2/3  2.24 $1.45
BRIS True Class 2.87 $3.40
Hall EP 2/3 1.42 $3.06

                                      

Again, speed points the way to some winners, but not on a profitable basis at Keeneland. This set of statistics would seem to indicate that horses with good workouts (Workout Index = 2), that worked sufficient distances (Furlong Days 1.0 or higher), that have a good class rating for dirt sprints (True Class) and that figure to be on or near the lead at the 2nd Call (Hall EP 2/3) spin off very high flat bet profits.

 

Now, let’s turn our attention to route races.

 

Keeneland Handicapping Factors

Non-Maiden Dirt Routes

 

  IV $2 ROI
Furlong Days(1.0 or higher)  1.44 $5.68
ACL 1.98  $2.18
BRIS Speed Last 1.96  $2.12
Hall Early Pace 2/3  1.48 $2.85

 

There is no mystery here.  But, look at the whopping $5.68 return on $2 wagers for the Furlong Days handicapping factor.

 

Keeneland Handicapping Factors

Non Maiden Turf Routes

 

  IV $2 ROI
BRIS Back Class 2.17 $2.33
BRIS Back Speed 1.68 $1.71
Hall Final Fraction 2/3 1.49 $2.70
BRIS Combined Paceline 1.50 $2.31

 

Once again, speed figures do not point the way to profitable play.

 

Keeneland Summary

 

If you want to make a profit handicapping at the short Keeneland race meets, you had best not rely on speed ratings alone. Good class figures for the same distance/surface category of today’s race, pace figures that match the track bias and the pace match-up scenario of today’s race, and solid workouts (both times and adequate distances) are the keys to profitable play.

 

If you are an experienced ALL-Ways software handicapper, you are familiar with these handicapping factors. On the other hand, if you use ALL-Ways software for the first time at the Keeneland meet, and perhaps for all the BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest cards, you will find the track bias information and all the handicapping factors on just two pages, the Paceline Report and the All Factors Report.

 


 ALL-Ways Data File Price Discounts

 

The ultimate price discount is, of course, getting your ALL-Ways software data files free. During April of 2002, BRIS and Frandsen Publishing are offering unlimited free downloads of ALL-Ways software data files for an entire day of racing. For this one day that you select, you can download ALL-Ways software data files for as many tracks as you like. You can also download the BRIS Handicapping Challenge contest data file if you select a contest Saturday as your free day (April 6th, 13th, 20th or 27th). And, you can also download as many ALL-Ways Custom Card data files as you like with races that exactly match your race specifications.

 

Now, here is about the most powerful profit making opportunity in all of horse racing: If you take advantage of the ALL-Ways Custom Card data files on your free race day, try making up a race card (or race cards) consisting of only races with ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes of Fast (EEE and EE) and Lone Early  (E, EP, EP-P) races. These races have pace match-up scenarios that frequently lead  to high priced surprise winners. Using ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes as a search criteria for ALL-Ways/BRIS Custom Cards is the only way in racing to isolate the pace match up scenarios you like to play.

 

On-going ALL-Ways File Discounts

 

Every ALL-Ways software user should consider becoming a BRIS Silver Plan or, optimally, a BRIS Gold Plan member. Gold Plan handicappers pay only $7 for an ALL-Ways software data file.  Now, consider this: If you make just one (1) $2 wager during a month on TwinSpires.com, you will receive a twenty percent (20%) discount off your entire BRIS bill for the whole month. Think of it. For $24 wagered during the entire year (one $2 wager each month), you save 20% on your BRIS bill for the entire year. For BRIS Gold Plan members, that is a minimum savings of at least $240! That’s a pretty good return-on-investment.

 

BRIS Gold Plan members who take advantage of the 20% discount pay only $5.60 for their ALL-Ways software data files. The typical ALL-Ways software handicapper downloads two ALL-Ways software data files for the days they play the races. So, for a total investment of $11.20, this ALL-Ways software user gets 20 or so races to handicap using one of horse racing’s premier handicapping software packages. Given 20 races and the power of ALL-Ways software plus your own handicapping know-how, it really isn’t very difficult to get this $11.20 investment back many times over. And, as “frosting on the cake”, remember that the ALL-Ways software data files will also drive BRIS Past Performance Generator software to print the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances at no additional cost.

 

 



 

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© Copyright 2002

Frandsen Publishing Corporation

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E-Mail: frandsen@uswest.net

Website: www.frandsen.com

 

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