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EXPLANATION OF DOSAGE


Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
                     

Dosage is a system that attempts to predict the distance potential of
horses based on certain sires in the first four generations of their
pedigrees.  These certain sires are called Chefs-De-Race (french for "chiefs
of the breed.").

Chefs are divided into five categories: Brilliant, Intermediate,
Classic, Solid, and Professional. The  categories correspond to a range
of distance potential from Brilliant (highest speed and least stamina) to
Professional (lowest speed and greatest stamina). Classic represents the
"ideal" balance of speed and stamina.

Of the now 190 assigned "chefs", many are assigned to two categories and
their points split between those two categories. A chef in the first
generation is assigned 16 points, chefs in the second generation eight points,
chefs in the third generation four points, and chefs in the fourth
generation two points.  This is done to account for the lesser influence of
chefs farther back in the pedigree, assuming that a grandsire is half
as influential as a sire, a great-grandsire half as influential as a
grandsire, etc.

Three statistics are generated by dosage: a Dosage Profile (DP), a Dosage 
Index (DI), and a Center of Distribution (CD).


   Brilliant        Intermediate       Classic        Solid     Professional

       I----------------I-----------------I-------------I-------------I

     +2.00             +1.00             0.00          -1.00        -2.00


CD attempts to pinpoint the exact point of balance of a horse's pedigree on
a seesaw scale between +2.00 (pure brilliant) to -2.00 (pure Professional).
The formula is (twice the Brilliant points plus the Intermediate points)
minus (twice the Professional points plus the solid points), the sum of
which is divided by (total points).

The calculation for Alysheba is (two times 12 [24] plus four [28]) minus
(two times zero [28] plus two [26]), which (26) is divided by total points
(40), or +0.65.

So Alysheba has a DI of 2.08 and a CD of 0.65. What does that mean?
Literally, the DI means that Alysheba had 2.1 times as much speed as
stamina in his pedigree.  The  CD  means that the point of balance of
Alysheba's pedigree is just to the Intermediate side of Classic.

Breed norms help to interpret these  numbers.  THE  AVERAGE NORTH
AMERICAN PEDIGREE HAS 18 TOTAL POINTS. Alysheba has 40 total points. High
total points are generally good. The higher the total points, the better 
the sires are in a pedigree, and the better the horse in question is likely
to be.

THE NORMS FOR THE MODERN NORTH AMERICAN BREED ARE APPROXIMATELY 2.40 FOR
DI AND +0.70 FOR CD. Alysheba's DI and CD are both lower than the norms.
That means he has more stamina and less speed than the average horse.

The fundamental principle of dosage theory is that the higher the DI and
CD, the lower the distance potential of the horse, and conversely, the lower

the DI and CD, the higher the distance potential of the horse.

More specifically, horses with a DI higher than 4.00 or a CD higher than
1.25 are not supposed to be able to win high-class races at 1 1/4 miles or
farther under level weights or weight for age. The Kentucky Derby is a
prime example.

A DI of 1.00 and/or a CD of 0.00 are supposed to represent the "ideal
balance" of speed and stamina in a pedigree.  It has been statistically
proven though that there is nothing the least bit "ideal" about the
racing performances of horses with such "ideal" numbers.

A CD is more precise and a better statistical indicator of distance
potential than DI. Additionally, the DI's and CD's of horses with low total
points (few chefs in their pedigrees) should be interpreted with caution.

CHEF-DE-RACE SIRE POINTS 
             
             
          16         8         4          2

                                         (I)                          
                             (I & C)     Polynesian 42             
                             Native Dancer 50                     
                                                                    
                   (B)                   Geisha 43                 
                   Raise A Native 61                                  
                                                                       
                                         Case Ace 34               
                             Raise You 46                          
                                                                
          (C)                            Lady Glory 34             
          Alydar                                                      
             (1975)                       (B)                     
                                         *Nasrullah 40             
                             On-And-On 56                  
                                                                    
                                         Two Lea 46                
                                         
                   Sweet Tooth 65                                     
                                                                     
                                         Ponder 46                 
                             Plum Cake 58                      
                                                                     
Alysheba, B, C                           Real Delight 49         
                                         (B)
                                         *Nasrullah 40             
                             Nantallah 53                  
                                                                      
                                         Shimmer 45                
                   Lt. Stevens 61                                
                                                                
                                         =Gold Bridge (Fr) 29      
                             *Rough Shod 2nd 44           
                                                              
                                         =Dalmary (Gb) 31          
          Bel Sheba                                       
             (1970)                      (S)                           
                             (C)         Man O' War 17             
                             War Admiral 34                           
                                                                         
                                         Brushup 29                

                   Belthazar 60                                    
                                                             
                                         *Pharamond 2nd 25         
                             Blinking Owl 38                     
                                                                
                                         Baba Kenny 28             
                                                                  

          (B) Brilliant
          (I) Intermediate
          (C) Classic
          (S) Solid
          (P) Professional

          DOSAGE PROFILE         = 12-4-22-2-0
          DOSAGE INDEX           =   2.08
          CENTER OF DISTRIBUTION =   0.65



                    B    I    C    S    P
                   12 +  4 +  22 + 2 +  0  = Dosage Profile  (total 40
                                                               points)


                    B         I        (1/2 C)
                   12   +     4    +      11      = 27
                  _____________________________      ____  = 2.08  Dosage Index 

                   11   +     2    +      0      =  13
                  (1/2  C)    S           P




                    (2XB)         I           S         (2XP)        total
                  [(2 X 12)  +    4 = 28] - [ 2  +     (2 X 0) = 2]  = 26


                                    [26 Divided by 40]  = 0.65
                                    (total divided by DP total points =)
                                            Center of Distribution


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