|FEBRUARY 1999||VOL. 12, NO. 2|
Table Of Contents
If not, then you may be missing out on not only a steady stream of winners but also some fabulous payoffs. With the wealth of value-added data contained in the Ultimate Past Performances, you have an edge over the general public when wagering.
PEDIGREE \& SALES DATA
TRACK BIAS \& RACE SUMMARY
PARS, CLASS RATINGS, PACE FIGS, ETC.
So why are you waiting? Take advantage TODAY of one of the best offers you will ever see! Access the Ultimate PDF Past Performances (regular price \$5 to \$7.50 per card) absolutely free and unlimited through February 28, 1999. Find out why they are the best handicapping tool available anywhere!
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Q. How do I save PDF files to my hard drive?
A. Follow these steps:
Q. What can I do when I get a blank screen when I try to view Ultimate Past Performances?
A. First, try clicking on Reload or Refresh on your browser. If that doesn't solve the problem follow the steps above for saving PDF Files to the hard drive.
Q. I am having printing problems with Adobe Acrobat. What do I do?
A. Make sure your printer is set to print True Type Fonts as Graphics. Make sure you are printing at 300 dpi. If these steps do not work make sure you have the latest print driver installed. Most printer companies have their own web sites or bulletin board, which provide drivers for free. Consult your printer manual on how to contact the company directly.
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by Richard J. Nilsen
There is a good reason why there exists no magic bullet to make money at the races. Too many variables are involved. With a variety of distances and surfaces for different age, sex, and class levels, it makes perfect sense that no one has a "system" that makes money at the races.
However, there is something that does work. Experienced players know what it is. When handicappers have access to information that the general public is lacking - therein lies an edge. Before everyone had access to speed figures, men like Len Ragozin and Andy Beyer stood a reasonable chance at making money at the races. They had an edge. Now anyone who drops a buck-fifty at the local program stand gains access to sophisticated speed figures. The edge has diminished significantly.
Fortunately, there are still ways for players to gain access to information that only a minority are using. Online reports, from sources such as Bloodstock Research (BRIS), offer tremendous value. Although anyone can sign up free and get their hands on these value-added reports, only the persistent, diligent handicapper will do so. Do you think Smokin' Joe, sitting next to you at the track with his tipsheet and cigar, is tapping into the Internet and downloading Ultimate PP's? Of course not.
Yes, more so than ever before, horseplayers are utilizing the latest in technology to download value-added reports via the internet. However, they are still in the minority. Wise players can put themselves in the minority by taking the extra step or two required to gain valuable information. Trainer stats, pace ratings, pedigree data, and more are a keystroke away on the Internet.
USING THE DATA
With that said, let's take a look at a maiden winner at the recent Fall meet at Churchill Downs. EXCLUSIVE BAND, a well-bred three-year-old from a high percentage stable, had only made two career starts. In his debut he finished second by a nose after taking the lead in the middle of the race. He earned 87 and 91 BRIS Early Pace Ratings for the first two points of call, respectively. However, in his next start, a seven furlong affair at Keeneland, Exclusive Band ran 93 and 97 Pace Ratings on route to another runner-up effort.
The Bloodstock Research (BRIS) Pace Ratings utilize a scale of two points per length for every point of call. By running a 93 to the first call and a 97 to the second call, Exclusive Band had run six points or three lengths faster than at each point of call in his debut. Despite losing by five lengths at Keeneland, the young colt also improved his Speed Rating by seven points.
In maiden special weight events for lightly raced horses, pedigree data is usually a powerful tool. With Exclusive Band, his sire and dam stats only confirmed that he was a horse to reckon with. The BRIS Ultimate Past Performances showed that his dam had eight starters to date and seven of them had become winners, including one stakes winner. The only one of her runners who had yet to reach the winner's circle was Exclusive Bird, who looked to be a race away from completing his dam's flawless record! In addition, he was a son of top sire Dixieland Band.
Some handicappers may have been concerned that the colt had not run for 42 days. The Ultimate trainer stats put those doubts to rest, showing that Ward is a solid 18-percent winner with 31-90 day layoffs. Ward had also given the colt a similar time between his first two starts, further confirmation that he could run well given this situation.
Finally, trainer Ward was switching to one of Churchill's leading riders, Shane Sellers. Sellers, a 19-percent winner for the year, wins at a 25-percent clip when riding horse with an Early (E) running style. In other words, he is most dangerous on a front running type, Exclusive Band's style.
Despite all these signals pointing to another improved effort, Exclusive Band was let off at overlay odds of 4.8-1. He got home in front by 1/2 length and paid a generous \$11.60 to win.
Without the Pace Ratings, handicappers would not have realized that this colt had run much faster fractions in his latest start and that it was actually an improved effort. Without the trainer stats, some horseplayers may have disregarded this horse off a brief layoff. Without the pedigree data, handicappers would not have known what a winning family this horse hailed from. And unless one knew Shane Seller's strengths and weaknesses, one would not have realized that the rider excels with this type of horse.
First time turf bets don't get much better than HANG THE MOON. This young filly was shipped from Maryland by trainer James Murphy to try the grass at Saratoga on July 30, 1998. Here was a pedigree that was screaming, "put me on the lawn!"
Sure, many handicappers in the crowd would have recognized that the daughter of Danzig had to be respected in her first attempt on the grass. But many had to ask themselves, just how good is Danzig as a turf sire and has the dam of Hang The Moon produced any grass runners? With the Ultimate PP's in hand, those questions don't go unanswered.
The pedigree stats showed that Danzig is not just a good turf sire, he is a great one. No less than 19-percent of his turf starters have won, and an amazing 22-percent have won in their turf debut. That's over one out of five winning their first grass race! Few stallions can boast that kind of statistic.
If Hang The Moon looked formidable as a Danzig offspring, she looked even better because of her dam. Temper The Wind had six starters to date, all winners, and three of them have won on the grass. Given
that Hang The Moon is one of those six starters, the dam has had three out of five offspring win on the lawn. Being a half-sister to one turf winner would be a positive angle, not to mention being related to three turf winners.
Making her third start off a layoff and second start on Lasix, Hang The Moon went to the front in this 1 3/16-mile grass race and held on for a game wire-to-wire score. Handicappers with this value-added edge collected \$18.00 to win on a filly that had been favored in all four career starts. Ironically, she was put on the surface she was bred for, and instead of being favored she paid a whopping 8-1!
Everyday at races all over the country, there are winners that horseplayers could have selected if they had access to superior information. Gaining that edge does not have to require hours of tedious record keeping and data entry. Online reports are available that do most of the work for the handicapper, and the prices are about the same as what is offered on track.
There is no excuse for being uninformed. If you're not a wiz at the computer, take a class at the local library. The information is there for the taking. Tap into it.
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'98 AND '99 AMERICAN PRODUCE RECORDS ON CD-ROM
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"SuperTote, the free Internet toteboard, has added a new wrinkle. You can now not only see the complete win, place and show pools, but the board will compute the percentage of the pool that each horse has in all three slots. No longer need you use a calculator to see that old Speedball has 18.6% of the place pool and 13.9% of the show pool."
Meadow's Racing Monthly - August 1998
As a service to our customers, unlimited SuperTote usage remains absolutely FREE. Is there a better deal in Racing?
If you haven't checked it our recently, new enhancements to SuperTote include:
So, when you can't get out to the track or off track parlor, get online with the dynamic SuperTote, available at no charge to BRIS customers.
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