January 2002, Number 24
Inside This Newsletter
Pace Handicapping with Brohamer Figures (part 4 of a 4 part series)
ALL-Ways™ Software Version 9
Description of New Features
Introducing ALL-Ways Software Version 9
Featuring Custom Card TM Capabilities Unique to ALL-Ways Software
ALL-Ways software Version 9 is loaded with important new features such as the Top 10/Ranking and Brohamer Plus handicapping reports, a Going-Off-Odds “What if?” wagering analysis, First Call pace figures and a whole lot more including important new automation features.
But what will really catch your attention is that ALL-Ways Version 9 now supports BRIS’s wildly popular Custom Card feature. And, exclusive to ALL-Ways software, you can specify which of the eleven ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes that you want included. For the first time in racing history, using ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes and BRIS Custom Card, you can focus exclusively on races that have specific pace match-up scenarios. See the article later in this newsletter that explains the new features in Version 9.
(Version 9 will be available approximately mid January, 2002)
Call for Handicapping Profiles
Now that ALL-Ways software supports Custom Card, many users will start playing tracks around the country that are new to them, at least as far as handicapping is concerned. This makes the library of ALL-Ways Handicapping Profiles posted on our Web site for downloading even more important. If you are playing a new track, simply download the Handicapping Profiles for the track from our Web site.
The posted profiles have been created by ALL-Ways software handicappers using their ALL-Ways software databases for the track. We request that ALL-Ways software users please check the profiles listed in the User’s Corner of our Web site and help us fill in any missing tracks and help us keep the profiles up-to-date. It is very easy to submit your profiles. Simply send us an e-mail indicating the number of races in your database and attach two files from your Franfile folder. The two files are IV.xxx and IVDEX.xxx where xxx is the track code. Again, this is very easy and fast to do. “Thank you”, in advance, for supporting your fellow ALL-Ways software handicappers.
Pace Handicapping with Brohamer Figures
(Part 4 of 4)
In ALL-Ways Newsletters #17, #18 and #19, we published the first three parts of our series on handicapping using Brohamer figures. We decided to hold off for a while on part #4 until we introduced ALL-Ways Version 9 which includes a new Brohamer Plus handicapping report. Well, Version 9 is now released, so here is Part #4 of the series which covers the subject of Turn-Time. Turn-Time, as you will see, is an extremely useful handicapping tool. You may want to go back and review the first three parts of the series. The newsletters are posted on our Web site at frandsen.com. Or, you can call us and we will send you the newsletters. We also repeat our recommendation that you read Tom Brohamer’s book “Modern Pace Handicapping” which is available from amazon.com.
In this article, we will explain the definition of Turn-Time and we will show you ways to use Turn-Time to evaluate a horse’s form, to evaluate a horse’s ability and to help handle certain race situations.
What is Turn-Time?
In the Brohamer/Sartin methodology, a race is divided into three segments called “internal fractions”.
Fraction 1: gate to 2 furlongs
Fraction 2: 2 furlongs to 4 furlongs
Fraction 3: 4 furlongs to finish
Fraction 1: gate to 4 furlongs
Fraction 2: 4 furlongs to 6 furlongs
Fraction 3: 6 furlongs to finish
The feet-per-second velocity of each horse for each fraction is determined. The calculation for this is to divide the length of the fraction in feet by the horse’s time for the fraction. Here is a sample for a six furlong race.
Fraction 1 2 3
Feet 1320 1320 1320
Horse’s Time 22.2 23.1 25.2
Velocity (FPS) 59.46 57.14 52.38
The first and third fractions are not a good indication of a horse’s form or overall ability. Late running, non- contending deep closers may well have the best 3rd fraction figures. On the front end, the first fraction is more of a positional issue and subject to the urging of the jockey. Just about any horse can run fast for that short distance. The middle fraction, however, is a different story. It is sometimes referred to as the “hidden fraction” because it is not readily apparent to the public. It is also called the Turn-Time fraction because, in most races, it is run around the closing turn coming into the stretch run.
Turn-Time in ALL-Ways
ALL-Ways software shows you the Turn-Time figures in two ways. First, it shows the Brohamer feet-per-second figures for all three fractions on the new Brohamer Plus Report in Version 9. ALL-Ways software also shows you the Hall Pace figures for each fraction as shown below.
Hall C1 = First Fraction (new in version 9)
Hall Turn-Time = Second Fraction
Hall Final Fraction = Third Fraction
The Hall figures are also shown on the new Brohamer Plus Report as well as on the Pace Past Performance Report.
So, a Brohamer Turn-Time (2nd Fraction) may be something like 57.14 feet-per-second. The corresponding Hall Turn-Time figure may be something like 114. Some people may find it easier to work with a Hall rating figure instead of a Brohamer feet-per-second figure. This is because you can determine if a horse has demonstrated its ability to run to the Turn-Time Par for the race by comparing the Hall Rating to the Race Rating for the race. A horse with a Hall Turn-Time rating of 114 has demonstrated its ability to run to the Turn-Time Par for Race Ratings of 114 and below. Please refer to Newsletter #16 for a complete description of Hall pace and speed figures.
Turn-Time is NOT a good stand-alone handicapping factor. The highest Turn-Time figure in a race may well belong to a deep closer that has no hope of finishing in-the-money. So, when handicapping a race, Turn-Time should always be considered along with other pace figures and/or other handicapping information as we will discuss below.
Quoting Tom Brohamer: “The ability to handle the turn in an efficient manner is a characteristic of a fit horse.”
There are three things to look for to evaluate a horse’s form.
1) Look for recent improvement in Turn-Time coupled with the running of a good race, which we define as an in-the-money finish or within 2 lengths of the winner in sprints or within 3 lengths in routes.
2) Look for recent improvement in Turn-Time coupled with an improved first fraction rating (Brohamer 1st Fraction FPS or Hall C1 Pace).
3) Look for recent improvement in Turn-Time coupled with an improved Early Pace (EP) rating. Early Pace is always measured from the gate to the 2nd call (4 furlongs in sprints and 6 furlongs in routes). The Brohamer EP, Hall EP and BRIS EP ratings are all measured at the 2nd Call.
These indicators of improving form can be found in a number of areas of ALL-Ways software. The Pace Past Performance report provides the information. The Weighted Moving Averages for Hall Turn-Time are on the Form by the Numbers report and are a good way to spot improving Turn-Time. In the Pro Edition, you can use the Form Graphs Report to graphically show each horse’s Turn-Time for each of its last 10 races. And, all horses are shown on one page making it particularly useful.
On the other side of the ledger, you should avoid horses with declining Turn-Time. A horse whose current form indicates an inability to maintain or improve its position around the turn is a poor candidate to run a good race.
Turn-Time is a dependable indicator of form at all class levels. It is particularly powerful and may well be the very best indicator of form at lower level tracks.
We will start this subject with a general “truth” about pace. Horses with a good pace figure in only one of the three fractions are poor candidates to do well in the race. You should look for horses that have good figures in at least two of the three fractions. Far more often than not, the two good pace fractions are contiguous. So, real contenders in a race will generally have one of the two situations shown below.
1st 2nd 3rd
Fraction Fraction Fraction
Horse A good good ok
Horse B ok good good
Horse A is typical of a solid front running horse with a “E” or “EP” running style that is capable of sustaining its pace through the turn. Here is another Tom Brohamer quote: “I know of no better bet in racing than a solid front running type capable of dominating his rivals in the second fraction.”
Horse “B” above is typical for a solid late running horse with a “P” or “S” running style. It does not wait for the final fraction to make its move.
Another word of caution here. Be careful if you have to replace the “ok” with “bad” in the 3rd fraction for Horse A or the 1st fraction for Horse B. Horses with good 1st and 2nd fractions are good candidates to finish in-the-money provided they do not typically “crater” in the final fraction. Horses with good 2nd and 3rd fractions are good candidate to finish in-the-money provided they are within reasonable touch of the leaders at the end of the 2nd fraction. This requires an “ok” 1st fraction.
There are two ways to identify “good” figures. First, since pace is all about match-ups between horses in a race, “good” can simply mean the horse has pace figures in the top 2 to 4 figures for all horses in the race. The second way to define “good”, and our personal choice, is to compare the Hall figures to the Race Rating to see if the horse has demonstrated its ability to run to Par.
Let’s start with an example. Here are the Hall figures for 3 horses in a recent race at Belmont.
Call 1 Turn-Time Final Fraction
1st Frac 2nd Frac 3rd Frac
Horse A 112 114 116
Horse B 113 112 111
Horse C 106 110 121
Keep in mind that one Hall pace rating point represents about 1/2 length. These three horses were tied with the highest speed figure. The race had a 114.8 Race Rating. Horse A will have a short lead on Horse B at the 2nd Call (about 1/2 length) and a big lead on Horse C (about 5 lengths). However, Horse A is picking up momentum in the turn while Horse B is losing momentum. Horse C is too far off the pace and waits too long to make its run. Horse C would need a better Turn-Time to catch Horse A. As expected, Horse A won this race and paid $9.30 for the win.
Let’s look at evaluating pace setting “E” and “EP” horses. With multiple pacesetters, use Turn-Time to determine which of the early runners will be able to hold or improve their position in the turn and which will be losing their momentum against the other pace setters. Those that lose momentum in the turn will most likely not figure in the race. Turn-Time is a particularly powerful tool for separating two closely matched horses with “E” running styles. Here is another “truth”: An early runner that will face a lot of pace pressure had better have a solid Turn-Time rating or it will be eliminated before entering the stretch.
When evaluating a lone pacesetter, the question is simply whether the horse will be holding its advantage going into the stretch with a good Turn-Time performance or will it be giving up the advantage it gained in the first fraction. If it is giving it up, the horse can safely be eliminated. Let’s state this another way: A horse with a solid Early Pace advantage at the 2nd Call (the end of the 2nd fraction) should be dismissed if it has a substandard Turn-Time. This is because its high EP rating came primarily from a strong 1st fraction followed by a poor 2nd fraction. It has no momentum entering the stretch.
Turn-Time is very useful for evaluating late runners as well. This works best for turf races, long routes and at the few tracks that tend to favor late running horses. Turn-Time will show you which of these late runners start there move in the turn and have good momentum for the stretch drive. If these runners are in touch with the field at the 2nd Call (end of the 2nd fraction), they are solid horses to support at the window.
Let’s now look at some Spot Plays.
• Look for horses that have good 1st Fraction and Turn-Time figures and poor 3rd Fraction figures that are getting Lasix for the first time in today’s race.
• Look for horses that had a good 1st Fraction, poor Turn-Time and a good 3rd Fraction in their last race. These are the kinds of pace figures that are typical of “V” pattern horses. These are horses that did well early in the race, backed off in the turn and came on strong again in the final fraction. These “V” pattern horses are a favorite angle play of a lot of horseplayers.
• A horse taking a significant class rise today and that has a Turn-Time at or above Par is a good bet. It can probably handle the class rise. If the horse has a below Par Turn-Time you can generally expect it to have trouble at the higher class level.
• Turn-Time is a good handicapping factor to evaluate whether a horse coming off its maiden win in its last race will be competitive in today’s race. Again, if the horse’s Turn-Time is at or above Par, it will probable be competitive today.
Turn-Time, when used with other pace and/or other handicapping information is a very useful tool for assessing a horse’s current form, for identifying its capabilities and for evaluating its likely performance in today’s race. Perhaps most important, adding Turn-Time to your handicapping arsenal will help you find higher paying horses that the public misses. That is the power of the “hidden fraction”.
Description of New Features
“Hold on to your seats!”
ALL-Ways Version 9 is the first in a series of four major upgrades (v9, v10, v11 & v12) that will be released in about one-year intervals, maybe even a little faster. Each one of these releases will include a ground-breaking innovation for handicapping and wagering on thoroughbred races. If you are an ALL-Ways software user, we say “Hold on to your seats!” because it is just going to keep getting better and better and more and more interesting over the next three years. If you are not currently an ALL-Ways software handicapper, you may want to “jump on board” and enjoy the ride with us.
If you want to achieve wagering success, you must be selective in the races you play. You should play to your own handicapping and wagering strengths. You should seek out specific races and wagering situations that are particularly profitable. With the new ALL-Ways Version 9 software and Custom Card, you specify exactly the kinds of races you want to play. Custom Card then searches all races being run in North America and assembles your own personal, customized ALL-Ways software race card made up of only the races that meet your exact specifications. This is perfect for simulcast players and players that use TwinSpires.com for telephone and on-line wagering.
Never again will you have to pay for or handicap
races that you have
Your race specifications can include any combination of distances, surfaces, field sizes, ten different race types (Restricted Allowance, Claiming, Maiden Special Weight, etc.), purse value, claiming price, ALL-Ways Race Rating range, age/sex restrictions, tracks, post times and wager types.
Here is the “Hold on to your seat” part of this new capability
Exclusive to ALL-Ways software, you can also specify which of the eleven ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes that you want included.
There are some important new capabilities in Version 9 that support the Custom Card feature. The Race Card function automatically creates Handicapping Profiles for each track on the card and automatically makes the profiles available for you at handicapping time. There is also a special Custom Card Exotic Results Datafile that ALL-Ways will use to automatically enter the results.
Here is an added bonus: The ALL-Ways software custom card data file not only drives your ALL-Ways software, it also can be used to print the BRIS Ultimate PPs at no additional cost.
To use the new Custom Card capability, simply go to the ALL-Ways software data file page on brisnet.com and click on the ALL-Ways Custom Card link.
There are two powerful new handicapping reports in Version 9, namely the Brohamer Plus Report and the Top 10/Ranking Report
The Brohamer Plus Report
With his permission, ALL-Ways software has always included the key handicapping factors described in Tom Brohamer’s landmark book “Modern Pace Handicapping”, based largely on the Sartin Methodology. Version 9 greatly expands on this with an extremely powerful handicapping report that includes all of these handicapping factors, the Hall pace and speed figures, a comprehensive specific-distance Track Model and a whole lot more, such as every horse’s performances running against specific pace scenarios.
Top 10/Ranking Report
This is a report that will have you asking: “Why didn’t someone do this before?” For the Top 10 part of the report, ALL-Ways software looks at the past performances of every horse and finds the 10 best performances. It does this for BRIS Early Pace, BRIS Final Fraction and BRIS Speed. A horse may well be listed multiple times for any of the factors. If a horse has four speed figures in the top 10, it will be listed 4 times. This is a great report for finding the most consistent early runners, late runners and speed horses. The Ranking part of this report sorts the horses from best to worst for each of 16 different handicapping factors. Note: Professional Edition users can customize the factors used in both the Top 10 and Ranking parts of this report.
One other interesting thing about this report is that if you run it after the races are run and the results entered, the report will show you the finish position of each horse. It is a great visual way to see which factors are the most meaningful.
Going-Off-Odds Analysis Report
If you have been using the Exotic Results Datafiles for ALL-Ways software automatic entry of race results, ALL-Ways software has been recording the going-off-odds for every horse in the race. As promised, Version 9 makes use of this information by preparing a powerful “What if?” analysis report. It shows you the number of plays, the percent wins, the average win payoff and the return-on-investment if you had wagered on selected races. This report covers “What if” situations for different levels of overlays, for different minimum going-off-odds and for two-horse win betting with Dutching. The two horse win Dutching results for the two highest odds horses out of ALL-Ways software first three picks is particularly an eye opener.
Version 9 includes BRIS and Hall First Call pace figures and the BRIS Dirt, Turf, Distance and Wet Pedigree ratings. Version 9 includes the ALL-Ways software innovative and very popular Track Profile for each specific distance. It also includes specific distance Brohamer Track Model and Percent Early Energy Optimum Range. Also, the Race Card Summary report now includes the post times.
ALL-Ways software users will appreciate the new Automatic One-Line Database Run Analysis. Click one button and ALL-Ways software will automatically analyze every Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA) and Race Card profile against the races in your Race Database for which the profiles are intended to be used. The Pro Edition Custom Reports, both printable and on-screen, have been expanded with three additional columns enabling you to include more handicapping factors on your customized handicapping reports. ALL-Ways software users will also welcome the time-saving one button automatic processing of all unprocessed data files. There is also automatic processing of all unprocessed results data files.
How to Obtain Version 9
(available in mid-January)
You can download the Standard Edition of ALL-Ways Version 9 from the BRIS Web site on the Free Software/ALL-Ways page. Or, you can call BRIS at 1-800-354-9206 and they will mail the software to you. There is a $6.95 S&H fee for this service. Professional Edition handicappers can order the Professional Edition of Version 9 by contacting Frandsen Publishing.
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