January 2003, Number 28
Inside This Newsletter
Call for Version 10 Profiles
ALL-Ways Version 10 Details
Wagering Tip: Show Partial Parlay
Frandsen Publishing Vacation Hiatus
All-Ways Version 10 Available
At the time we went to press with this newsletter, ALL-Ways software version 10 was very close to completion. Please check the ALL-Ways page on the BRIS web site or check the Frandsen Publishing web site at www.frandsen.com for specific availability information. Version 10 is packed with new features including sixteen new key handicapping factors, a comprehensive Gap Analysis capability, Key Horse identification, a new Search Handicapping Report and the blockbuster Custom Search feature that lets you build your own personal handicapping angles. Please see the article on this page for more details
Call for Version 10 Handicapping Profiles
The sixteen new key handicapping factors introduced in ALL-Ways Version 10 are available for use in ALL-Ways Handicapping Profiles. Handicapping Profiles developed in prior versions of ALL-Ways software can certainly be used in Version 10. However, we would like to update the Handicapping Profiles posted on our web site for downloading. We request the help of ALL-Ways software handicappers.
More specifically, after you install ALL-Ways Version 10, we ask that you run the MRA Default and MRA Pace functions in the Analysis Module to automatically create new MRA (Multiple Regression Analysis) profiles. Then, we ask that you send an e-mail to email@example.com. Include the track name and the number of races in your Race Database for each track. Simply attach, to the e-mail, the two files that make up your Handicapping Profiles for each track. The two files are iv.xxx and ivdex.xxx where xxx is the track code. These files are in your Franfile folder. To attach files to the e-mail, simply click the “ATTACH” button at the top of the e-mail screen or the button with a paper clip icon. You will then be given the chance to designate the folder that contains the files you are after. Just change the folder to Franfile, scroll through the files until you see the iv.xxx and ivdex.xxx files and double click on the file names. That is all there is to it. IT IS VERY EASY TO DO! The files will be attached to the e-mail when you send it to us. Thank you, in advance, for your support.
ALL-Ways Version 10 Details
When Frandsen Publishing and BRIS teamed up to bring you the ALL-Ways Custom Card capability in Version 9, we called it “a revolution”. Indeed, the ALL-Ways Custom Card capability provided you with the ability to create custom ALL-Ways software data files that included only the exact types of race you like to play. The revolutionary part of this was, and still is, the ability to specify specific degrees of pace pressure. This is done using ALL-Ways Race Pace Shape designations. For example, you can specify data files that include only races with heavy pace pressure that often set up for high priced closers and/or races with lone front runners that may run away from the field, again at very nice prices.
Well, we believe we have done it again in Version 10. Read on.
• 16 Powerful New Handicapping Factors
• Comprehensive Gap Analysis
• Identification of Key-Horse Candidates
• Custom Search Feature
• New Search Handicapping Report
Let’s look at each of these Big 5 features.
16 New Handicapping Factors
Prior versions of ALL-Ways software have included 71 key handicapping factors covering a horse’s suitability to the distance, suitability to the surface, current form, class level, ability to handle the pace and speed demands of the race, jockey/trainer/pedigree ratings and the powerful ALL-Ways Comprehensive rating. Version 10 adds 16 new factors including BRIS and Hall 1st Call Pace ratings, BRIS and Hall Total Pace ratings (Early Pace + Speed) and BRIS and Hall Late Pace ratings (Final Fraction + Speed), the True Dirt Combined rating (Early Pace + Final Fraction) and the innovative Weighted Moving Average ratings (an impressive measure of a horse’s current form). The powerful BRIS Prime Power rating is also included. All these factors are now available for use in ALL-Ways Handicapping Profiles, bringing the total number of such factors to 87.
The 1st Call ratings will lead you to many high paying upset horses. The Total Pace and Late Pace ratings will help you spot the Best Early and Best Late runners that make up far more than their fair share of Exactas and Trifectas.
Comprehensive Gap Analysis
In our October 2002 Newsletter, we promised that Version 10 would give ALL-Ways handicappers “better handicapping information than anyone else on the planet.” Well, here it is. ALL-Ways software has always shown you the win, place, show and in-the-money percentages as well at the flat win bet profitability for the horses ranked 1st, 2nd and 3rd for each handicapping factor. The new Gap Analysis feature in version 10 takes this to a new level. Now, you will see all of this data based on the size of the Gap advantage enjoyed by the horse. Here are some examples:
In non-maiden dirt routes at The Fairgrounds, horses with a 3 point Gap advantage for the Hall Total Pace 2/3 rating (Early Pace+Speed) won 30% of their races and yielded an 8% win bet return on investment (ROI). About 55% of the races had such a Gap advantage qualifier. About 15% of races had a Gap qualifier with an 8 point Hall Total Pace 2/3 rating advantage. These horses won 52% of their races with a win bet ROI of 57%.
If we look at non-maiden turf routes run on the main turf track at Belmont, we see that horses with a 2 point BRIS Prime Power advantage won 29% of their races and yielded a small loss with a win ROI of -6%. But look what happens if we increase the Gap advantage to 4 points. These qualifiers won 41% of the races and yielded a positive win ROI of 28%. A qualifying horse showed up in about 20% of these races. By the way, for these same turf races, horses with a 2 point Gap advantage in Turf Class won 40% of their races with a win ROI of 32% and they finished in-the-money a whopping 82% of the time. Think this horse would make a good Key Horse?
We could go on and on and on with examples. When you click the button in the ALL-Ways Analysis Module to automatically run this Gap Analysis for a track, ALL-Ways software provides this data for 52 different handicapping factors, for Gap levels of 1 through 10 and for every type of race run at the track. It even separates the inner and main tracks at Aqueduct, Saratoga and Belmont. If you do not yet have a database for the track, it is no problem because Version 10 comes with a set of Default Gap statistics derived from many thousands of races run at representative tracks across North America.
Key Horse Candidates
Anyone who has read our newsletters over the years knows how strongly we feel about the advantage of identifying a Key Horse in every race. A Key Horse is a horse that we believe has a very high probability of finishing in-the-money. If you have five horses you like and box them in a $1 Trifecta, it will cost you $60. Make one of the horses a Key Horse and single it in the win, place and show positions and the cost of the bet drops to only $36. We also never want our Key Horse to be the crowd favorite because we want the crowd favorite to finish off-the-board. This is what makes payoffs skyrocket.
In Version 10, ALL-Ways software evaluates the new Gap statistics, the new proprietary “behind-the-scenes” Key Horse statistics as well as situational factors based on the pace pressure and other match-up considerations specific to the race. ALL-Ways software then presents you with three to four prime candidates for a Key Horse. You are shown the Key Horse score and rank for each of these horses as well as their likely in-the-money percentage. Why do we show you multiple horses? Well, if the top ranked Key Horse Candidate is also the post time favorite, just move down to the second ranked candidate. Also, if there is a late scratch, you still have a Key Horse candidate to play. And, here is the “frosting on the cake”: You will be truly impressed at the number of Exactas that are made up of the horses in the Key Horse Candidate list.
The new Custom Search feature, exclusive to the Professional Edition, lets you design your own personal handicapping angles, which, in ALL-Ways software, are called Search Definitions. You can then test these angles against your track database(s) for win and in-the-money percentages, average win payoff and win ROI. At handicapping time, ALL-Ways software will evaluate every angle that you have designated for the specific type of race being run and find all horses that qualify based on the Search Definition elements. This is unbelievably powerful stuff! Here is an example:
Sample Search Definition
|1||top||Hall FF P/L||3|
|3||within||BRIS Prime Power||-3|
|5||true||days good: 90|
Here is how you read this definition. You are instructing ALL-Ways software to look for horses that have a Hall Final Fraction Paceline Gap advantage of 3 points, that have an ALL-Ways Comprehensive rating within 5 points of the top ranked horse and a BRIS Prime Power rating within 3 points of the top ranked horse, that have run in-the-money on the same surface as today’s race and that have run a good race within the last 90 days.
We used the Custom Search feature to test this Search Definition for non-maiden inner turf routes at Belmont. ALL-Ways software found such a qualifying horse in about 6% of the races. The horses won 62% of their races and yielded a whoppin win ROI of 93%. These horses finished in-the-money 88% of the time.
ALL-Ways software gives you great flexibility in creating your personal Search Definitions. Each definition can have up to 7 elements. There is no limit to the number of definitions you can create. You can even build a special Search Definition Library, test all the definitions against a track database and then copy the best definitions from the Library to the specific track. You can also build a Default File of Search Definitions that ALL-Ways software will use for handicapping a track until you have built up your own database for the track.
It is axiomatic in horse racing that good angles do not occur very often. If they did, too many people would play the angle and it would lose its value. The angle in our sample Search Definition occurred in only 6% of the races. Now imagine that you have developed 20 or 30 or 40 different angles and consider that ALL-Ways software will do all the work to look for qualifying horses in every race you handicap. Like we said, this is one very powerful capability.
Search Handicapping Report
One new handicapping report has been added in Version 10. It is likely to become one of your most powerful handicapping tools. It is called the Search Report. This report is divided into multiple sections, all on one page.
The Gap Search section shows you the horses that have a Gap advantage with a high win percentage and/or a high win ROI and/ or a high ITM percentage. The Key Horse section shows you the ranked Key Horse Candidates recommended by ALL-Ways software. The Best Early/Best Late section isolates the top early running horses and top late running horses. Some of these horses actually qualify in both lists. These “dual qualifiers” are impressively powerful plays. This section also looks at the remaining horses to make you do not leave out a horse with a particularly strong Final Fraction rating. You will be amazed at how many Trifectas and Superfectas are made up of horses in the Key Horse and Best Early/Best Late lists.
The Custom Search section, exclusive to the Professional Edition, shows you the results of the ALL-Ways software search for horses that qualify for your personal handicapping angles (Search Definitions) discussed earlier.
To make this report as powerful as possible, it also includes all the pertinent track bias information. It also shows the selections made by the ALL-Ways Handicapping Profiles along with the win probability and corresponding oddsline calculated by ALL-Ways software. The Morning Line is also shown to help you plan your wagers in advance.
There is More
There is a whole lot more that is new in Version 10. ALL-Ways software analyzes the performance of your Handicapping Profiles and shows this information on numerous handicapping reports, including the new Search Report. You can now customize the factors you want to print on a number of handicapping and analysis reports. The actual finish position of every horse is recorded in your database for use in Version 11, which is due out early in 2004. The Professional Edition includes new fields for the Custom Report feature and more fields for exporting to spreadsheet and database programs. The Pro edition also lets you decide which of the 87 handicapping factors you want ALL-Ways software to consider when it uses Multiple Regression to automatically generate new Handicapping Profiles. The Pro Edition also adds the Gap Statistics update, Key Horse statistics update and Profile Performance Statistics update to the Automatic function in the Analysis Module. This, along with the automatic Handicapping Profile update and Race Card functions that are part of this Automatic feature gives you a simple one-button capability to get 100% ready to handicap a new race card for a track.
The Standard Edition will be posted on the ALL-Ways Free Software Page on the BRIS web site at www.brisnet.com. You will be able to download the software, both an upgrade version and a full version. The new Version 10 User Manual will also be available. You can also call BRIS at 1-800- 354-9206 and they will mail the software and manual to you. There is a $6.95 S&H charge. The Professional Edition can be obtained directly from Frandsen Publishing by calling 952-937-9180. Watch the Frandsen Publishing web site at www.frandsen.com to determine when Version 10 is available. Frandsen Publishing will also mail out notices to handicappers who we have in our database. You can be added to our database by sending your name and mailing address in an e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Wagering Tip: Show Partial Parlay
Show bets? Booor-ing. Yaaawn. We think not and suspect you will agree with us after reading this article. As we participated in the Beta Test for ALL-Ways Version 10, we tried a new wager, the Show Partial Parlay, that was recommended to us. We increased our Show Partial Parlay ticket from its starting point of $100 to a little over $1,000 in only four trips to the track. We did play multiple tracks, however. We repeated this the next month, starting over with a new $100 ticket and achieved similar results. Lets examine this wagering strategy.
First, what is a parlay wager. Simply stated, it is a “let it ride” consecutive series of bets. A three race parlay means you bet on the first race and if you win, you bet it all on the second race and if you win you bet it all again on the third race. Lots of people play this way and it is perfectly legitimate. Our problem with the wager is that when you lose, and you will frequently lose a race in a parley series of wagers, you lose all the money you won including your initial wager.
In our Show Partial Parlay, we do not bet our entire balance at any time. We do, however, bet larger and larger amounts as our Show Partial Parlay bankroll grows. Indeed, you will not win every one of these show wagers either. But, when you lose, you still have a nice bankroll to go forward. We can handle losses, even a series of losses, without getting tapped out. We also do not necessarily play consecutive races.
Let’s first look at why you may want to play this kind of wager. Then we will explore how to play it.
Why play it?
- It is a high probability wager. You should win this wager more often than any other wager in horse racing.
- You do not need a large bankroll to get started with this wager. You can start small and build up your bankroll using your winnings.
- The wager gives you lots of action because a high percentage of races can be played. We are able to play approximately half of the races.
- Because you get lots of action, you tend to be more disciplined and not play Exactas and/or Trifectas and/or Superfectas and/or Pick 3s and/or Pick 4s that you should pass in the first place. These “exotic” wagers should be played selectively and only under very tight conditions.
- The wager is both fun and profitable. You can root your selection home. And, the bet size can get pretty large as your Show Partial Parlay bankroll grows.
The fact is, if you are having trouble winning at the track or if you do not have the sizable bankroll required to avoid being tapped out with other types of wagers, the Show Partial Parlay is a good way to get on a winning track. And, if you do have a sizable bankroll, you will probably still find this wager to be to your liking. It is indeed profitable and fun.
How to play?
First, we suggest starting with a $100 bankroll. However, you can certainly start with less. Even $20 will do.
Keep this bankroll separate from any other funds you have. A good way to do this is to keep using a cash voucher. Make your wagers from the voucher and add your winnings to the voucher. This way, you will always know the size of your Show Partial Parlay bankroll.
We suggest not betting on a horse to show that is going off at odds less than 4 to 1. These low odds horses will simply pay too little. You really don’t want a lot of $2.20 type payoffs. If you place a show wager on horses going off at 4 to 1 up to 8 to 1, we suggest you bet 15% to 20% of your Show Partial Parlay bankroll. For horses going off at 8 to 1 and higher, we suggest wagering only 10% of your bankroll. You will find that the typical $2 show payoffs for horses in this range of odds will be in the $3 to $5 range. No doubt there are people who will do the math to arrive at more precise wager sizes versus risk, but we find these general guidelines to work well.
So, how do we select the horses for these Show Partial Parlay wagers? First, keep in mind that you are not looking for the show horse. You are looking for a horse that you are confident will finish either first, second or third. Any of these finish positions means you win. So, we are really looking for a horse that we believe will finish in-the-money. This may seem obvious but, it is a very important fact to keep in mind. This will help you move away from the low odds probable winners and towards higher priced horses that have a real chance, maybe not at winning, but for the place and show positions. Remember, we want horses that are going off at 4 to 1 or higher.
We could probably write a couple of pages on what to look for to select the horse for your Show Partial Parlay wager. For example, you could look for non-favorite horses that have a good record of finishing in-the-money or non-favorite horses with the best speed figures or the non-favorite horses with the highest class ratings, etc... However, we have found a simple approach to this selection process that is based on the pace match-up in the race.
If you are an ALL-Ways software handicapper, the first thing you should do is print out the new Search Handicapping Report in Version 10. If you are not an ALL-Ways software user, you will want to use a BRIS product that lets you determine the best early running horses and the best late running horses. Remember, the ALL-Ways data file can be used to print the BRIS Ultimate PPs.
Here is an approach to finding our Show Partial Parlay horses that worked well for us. It is deceptively simple. First, categorize the race based on ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes as Fast (EEE, EE) or Lone Early (E, EP, EP-P) or Honest (E-EP, EP-EP) or Slow (all other shapes). See Newsletter #3 if you would like to know more about ALL-Ways Race Pace Shapes. For Fast races, use the non-favorite Best Late horse that meets our odds requirements. In Lone Early races, use the non-favorite Best Early horse that meets our odds requirements. For Honest and Slow paced races, use either the top Best Early horse or the top Best Late horse that is not the favorite and that meets our odds requirements. We recommend that you apply your own handicapping judgment when selecting the horse to play. Do not play mechanically.
If you are using the new Search Handicapping Report in ALL-Ways Version 10, the Best Early and Best Late horses are right there in front of you. The top Key Horse candidates are there as well. Far more often than not, the Key Horse candidates show up in either the Best Early or Best Late lists. In many cases, a Key Horse candidate shows up in both lists. ALL-Ways software specifically highlights these “dual qualifiers” for you. In this case, we would give preference to the non-favorite “dual qualifier” with the highest odds.
ALL-Ways Version 10 Professional Edition handicappers will want to create Search Definitions (angles) that have two characteristics. First, they should find horses that have average win payoffs of $10 or higher. Second, they should obviously yield high in-the-money percentage finishes. All this is shown on the Summary Test Report for the Custom Search feature.
If you have shied away from place and show wagering in the past, we strongly suggest you give the Show Partial Parlay approach a try. It is great fun and can be surprisingly profitable, particularly as your Show Partial Parlay bankroll ticket grows and grows and your wagers get larger and larger.
Now, if you made it all the way through this article without stumbling on the tongue-twister “Show Partial Parlay”, you have our compliments.
Frandsen Publishing Vacation Hiatus
Frandsen Publishing is a family business. About once each year, we close down the company for a week or two while the whole family goes on vacation. In 2003, we will be closed from Saturday, February 23rd through Thursday, March 6th. If you need technical support during this time, we suggest you call BRIS at 1-800-354-9206. You can also call Frandsen Publishing at 952-937-9180 and leave a message for us to call you back after we return. You may also call the same number during this time to place orders for ALL-Ways Version 10 Professional Edition software. We will fill these orders on a first-come first-served basis as soon as we return on March 6th.
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