January 1998, Number 8
ALL-WaysTM Newsletter


INSIDE THIS NEWSLETTER

Handicapping Tips

Reminder

Handicapping Profile Series (Part 4 of 5)

New Web Site


ANNOUNCEMENTS

During January 1998, the new Frandsen Publishing Web site will become operational. You can visit the site at www.frandsen.com. In addition to promoting ALL-Ways software to potential new users as our old site did, the new site also includes helpful information for current ALL-Ways software handicappers. Please read the article on page four of this newsletter for details.


"Thanks" Come First

In our last newsletter, we solicited your ideas and wishes for new features to be included in the next major upgrade of ALL-Ways software. Well, here is a big “THANK YOU” to the hundreds of ALL-Ways software handicappers that responded to our request. We received many great ideas that will be included in Version 7.0 which is currently planned for release this coming Spring.


HANDICAPPING TIPS

HANDICAPPING HONEST PACE RACES

In our October 1996 newsletter, we introduced the concept of categorizing races to be run into four different Race Pace Shapes. (If you do not have this newsletter, contact us and we will send it to you.) Three of these Pace Shapes, namely FAST EARLY, LONE EARLY and SLOW, lend themselves very nicely to pace oriented handicapping decisions.

Good closers often win FAST EARLY races. A LONE EARLY horse often runs away from the field. Late runners with the best early pace ratings often run away from the field in SLOW races.

This brings us to the fourth Race Pace Shape, namely HONEST races. These races are designated by ALL-Ways software as “E-EP” or “EP-EP” races. “E-EP” races have one horse with an “E” running style and one or more horses with an “EP” running style. “EP-EP” races have no “E” runners and two or more horses with an “EP” running style. These are called HONEST Pace races because the pace match-up will not cause either a fast or slow pace to the second call.

Here are some important points to keep in mind about HONEST Pace races:

• The majority of races have a HONEST Pace Shape.

• “E” and “EP” runners generally have a slight edge, particularly in sprints. Honest Pace Shape races can be significantly influenced by a strong track bias.

• HONEST Pace races are the toughest races to handicap .... at least to handicap profitably. A significant percentage of HONEST Pace races should not be bet. They should be passed.

WOW! HONEST Pace races make up the majority of races, they are difficult to handicap and a substantial percentage of them should be passed. So why bother? Well, FAST EARLY, LONE EARLY and SLOW Pace races will present you with some very nice high paying horses. But, in our opinion, a key to consistent and long term profitable play is to learn how to handicap and play, or pass, HONEST Pace races. We are going to show you our favorite way of handicapping these races. We call it The Opposing Pace Gap Method.

The Opposing Pace Gap Method for playing HONEST Pace races

This method is simple and very fast to use. If it seems a little too simplistic to you as we explain the method, stick with it. It really is very effective.

Start by drawing two columns on a piece of paper. We usually do this either on the right side of the Contender Summary Report or on the bottom of the Paceline Report. One column is for early running horses (“E” and “EP” horses) and the other column is for late running horses (“P” and “S” horses).

Let’s first work on the early running horses. Write down the name of the best early running horse (say Horse “A”). It will generally be the early running horse rated the highest by ALL-Ways software. Next write down the name of the next best early running horse (say Horse “B”). If these first two horses are very close in ability and you have a hard time choosing one or the other as your top pick, then write Horse B’s name directly under Horse A and go on and look for the third best early running horse (say Horse “C”). However, if Horse A is clearly superior to Horse B or is clearly better suited to the match-up of today’s race, then leave a blank line under Horse A before writing Horse B’s name down. This blank line is the Gap. The key here is to keep writing down the early running horses directly under each other until you identify a gap before the next horse. Then, if there are any early horses remaining, you write down the next horse after the Gap and move on to late running horses.

Now, just repeat the process for late running horses. Keep writing down late running horses until you identify the gap before the next horse. Then write down the next horse after the Gap.

There will be times when the early running horses are just plain not going to figure in the race at all. In this case, put the Gap at the top of the list and put the best early horse after the Gap. The same situation can also apply to the late running horses. However, it will not happen to both early and late running horses in the same race.

Of course, ALL-Ways software will make this process pretty easy because it will identify the best horses and it will show you each horse’s running style.

Now, we are going to look at some examples. Before we do, however, it is important to understand the concept behind this approach. First and foremost, this is not intended to be a mechanical system of play. Instead, it is intended to be a method of organizing your thoughts when confronted with the often tough task of handicapping HONEST Pace races. The concept is simple. The race is going to be won by either the best early running horse or the best late running horse. And, very often the place horse will have a running style just the opposite of the running style of the winning horse.

Again, please remember that this is not a mechanical system. So, how you actually play each of these scenarios will depend on the specific circumstances and match-ups in the race. And, you would, of course, only make specific wagers if the probable payoffs indicate a value play.

A.   Early Runners   Late Runners
         
    Horse A
gap
Horse B
  Horse F
gap
Horse G

This is a one or two horse race. If “A” is clearly superior to “F” in this race, then you may want to bet “A” to win, an A/F straight Exacta and a A/F/BG Trifecta (a $4 bet for a $2 Trifecta). Just reverse “A” and “F” if the “F” horse is the superior horse. If “A” and “F” are close, then you may want to bet both A and F to win, an AF Exacta box and a AF/AF/BG Trifecta ($8).

B.   Early Runners   Late Runners
    Horse A
gap
Horse B
  Horse F
Horse G
gap
Horse H

This is the most common chart you will see, so we will spend a little more time on it. It shows a one, two or three horse race. These three different scenarios will be handled quite differently.

First, if “A” is clearly superior in this race, you may want to bet “A” to win, an A/FG Exacta and an A/FG/BFGH Trifecta ($12).

Second, if the “F” and “G” horses are superior to the “A” horse, then you may want to bet both “F” and “G” to win, a FG/AFG Exacta and a FG/AFG/ABFGH Trifecta ($24).

The third scenario is if horses “A”, “F” and “G” are all about equal. In this case, looking for value plays is crucial. Most likely, one of the horses will be an underlay and the other two will be overlays. You may want to bet both overlay horses to win. Avoid the temptation to play a three horse Exacta box. Instead, bet the individual combinations that are value plays. We would be inclined to not bet the Trifecta unless the crowd’s favorite figured to finish off-the-board or one of these horses was a long shot and we were very confident it would finish in-the-money. In this case, we would look to key either horse “A”, “F” or “G” in the win and place positions. The Trifecta wager might look something like this: A/FG/BFGH and FG/A/BFGH ($24). See the April and July 1997 newsletters for suggestions on how to bet the Trifecta.

C.   Early Runners   Late Runners
    Horse A
Horse B
gap
Horse C
  gap
Horse F

This is another two horse race. You may want to bet both “A” and “B” to win, an AB Exacta box and an AB/AB/CF Trifecta ($8).

D.   Early Runners   Late Runners
    Horse A
Horse B
gap
Horse C
  Horse F
Horse G
gap
Horse H

This is a two or four horse race. If “A” and “B” are clearly superior in this race to “F” and “G”, then you might bet “A” and “B” to win and an AB/ABFG Exacta. We would not play the Trifecta unless the crowd favorite figures to finish off-the-board or we are very confident a long shot will finish in-the-money and we could craft a Trifecta as we did in example B above. If all four of the top horses (A,B,F and G) are relatively equal in this race, we would pass the race. If we cannot narrow the probable winner down to three horses or less, we generally will not play the race.

E.   Early Runners   Late Runners
    Horse A
gap
Horse B

  Horse F
Horse G
Horse H
Horse I
Horse J

This is an interesting one. If “A” is the superior horse in this race, we would bet “A” to win and we would play selected combinations of A/FGHIJ Exacta tickets. We would play those with probable payoffs indicating good value. We would not play them all. We would most likely pass the Trifecta. If “A” is not superior in this race to the late runners, we would pass the race.

F.   Early Runners   Late Runners
    Horse A
Horse B
Horse C
gap
Horse D
  Horse F
Horse G
Horse H
gap
Horse I

This one is easy. Go get a hot dog and a Coke. Sit this one out.

Hopefully, this Opposing Pace Gap method will help you sort through HONEST Pace races. For sure, it will make it clear when you should pass an HONEST Pace race. Winning horseplayers do not play every race. Knowing when to pass a race is as important to profitable play as is picking winners.


REMINDER

BACKING UP KEY FILES

It is not “if” you will have a hard disk crash but “when”. The best way to avoid the problems caused by a hard disk crash is to regularly back up key ALL-Ways software files. Early on, it is practical to use the ALL-Ways software Toolbox to automatically Zip backup copies of these key files onto floppy disks. As your Race Databases grow, however, you will find it is much faster and easier to use a larger storage medium than floppy disks. You can purchase an external Iomega Zip Drive for about $150. The removable Iomega Zip Disks hold 100 million bytes of data compared with 1.44 million bytes on a floppy disk. One or two Zip Disks will hold your entire FRANFILE directory/folder. You can purchase an external magnetic tape backup unit, also for about $150. These use removable magnetic tapes that hold billions of bytes of data, enough to back up your entire hard drive. We strongly recommend you protect the investment you have in your Race Databases by purchasing one of these backup devices.

We prefer the tape backup units. The first time you back up your complete hard drive it will take an hour or so. It is automatic, so you do not need to stay around while the backup takes place. Thereafter, you can instruct the tape unit to do an incremental backup, which means that only changes to your files that occurred since the last backup will be backed up this time. This process takes but a few minutes and it is all automatic.

You should have a regular backup routine. Download the ALL-Ways software data files and the Flash Results files from BRIS into your FRANDATA directory/folder. Retain these files until the next backup is completed. When the backup is completed, you can discard (delete) the data files and results files. We suggest you backup all the files in your C:\FRANFILE directory or folder.


HANDICAPPING PROFILE SERIES

In the previous installment of this series on Handicapping Profiles, we made the point that it is perfectly acceptable just to use the Multiple Regression Analysis Handicapping Profiles in ALL-Ways software. Quite frankly, this is what most ALL-Ways software handicappers do. However, ALL-Ways software also gives you the ability to create your own custom Handicapping Profiles. This allows you to tailor the profiles to your own particular style of play, to aim them at very finely segmented races and/or to aim them at an objective other than just picking the winner.

HANDICAPPING PROFILE SERIES
Part Four

Handicapping Profile Strategies

In this fourth installment of the series, and in the next installment as well, we are going to explore several different strategies for creating and using Handicapping Profiles. In this installment we will cover two strategies, namely the High Percentage Win and the Opposing Pace strategies.

High Percentage Win Strategy

You could call this the “Just tell me which horse is going to win.” strategy. This profile will be made up a few handicapping factors with very high Impact Values. It will not concern itself with return on $2 bets shown on the Impact Value Analysis Report. There are two reasons you may want this kind of Handicapping Profile:

1. A very small improvement in win percentage will generate a large increase in Return on Investment. Look at these examples.

Win
Percent
  Average
Mutuel
  ROI
32%   $7.00   12%
36%   $7.00   26%
38%   $7.00   33%

2. A high win percentage gives you a significant advantage when crafting your exotic wagers. You will more often be able to single a horse on top in Exactas and Trifectas and in legs of Daily Doubles and Pick 3’s. This means that you either bet less or that you bet the same amount but on fewer combinations. Either way, your exotic ROI performance will improve.

Our October 1997 newsletter covers how to best create Handicapping Profiles that are predictive. If you do not have the newsletter, contact us and we will send it to you. For this High Percentage Win Strategy, you should generally follow the instructions in that newsletter. However, there is a caveat. When selecting the handicapping factors, do so based only on the highest Impact Values. Use the Return on $2 Bet figures only to break ties or near ties in Impact Values.

Opposing Pace Strategy

You will recognize this strategy because it is the strategy used by the Default Handicapping Profiles in ALL-Ways software. We have chosen to present this strategy now because it works so well with the Opposing Pace Gap handicapping method for HONEST Pace Shape races that we presented earlier in this newsletter.

If you are not into creating your own Handicapping Profiles, just skip the next several paragraphs. Instead of making your own, just use the original Default or the MRA Default Handicapping Profiles automatically created by ALL-Ways software.

This strategy calls for creating two new profiles. Both profiles use, as a base, the High Percentage Win Handicapping Profile described earlier. Note, however, that the High Percentage Win profile must NOT use any early or late pace factors such as Early Pace figures, Final Fraction figures or ESP Running Style designation.

The first profile we will create is the Early Bias profile that favors early running horses. All you do is add two factors to the High Percentage Win Profile to give it the early bias. Add the Early Pace factor with the highest Impact Value and add the ESP Running Style factor. The reason for these two factors is that we are trying to find a horse that wants to run fast early (running style) and that can run fast early (Early Pace figure).

Now, here is a little, new twist. For this early biased profile, we will assign special Impact Values to the Early Pace and Running Style factors. For the Early Pace factor, assign an IV of 2.0 to the highest ranking slot and an IV of 0.5 to the lowest ranking slot and then turn on the Proportional IVs. For the Running Style factor, use the IVs as shown below.

    ESP
“E”
  ESP
“EP”
  ESP
“P”
  ESP
“S”
                 

IV

  2.0   1.5   1.0   1.0

To create the late biased profile that favors late runners, again start with the High Percentage Win profile, but now add the Final Fraction factor with the highest Impact Value and add the ESP Running Style factor. Use 2.0 and 0.5 for the highest and lowest IVs respectively for the Final Fraction factor and turn on the Proportional IVs. Use the IVs shown below for the Running Style factor.

    ESP   ESP   ESP   ESP
    “E”   “EP”   “P”   “S”

IV

  1.0   1.0   2.0   2.0

We now have a profile with no pace bias that is aimed at finding the winning horse a high percentage of the time without regard to the Return on a $2 bet. And, we have two more profiles, one aimed at finding such high percentage horses that are good early runners and one that finds such high percentage horses that are good late runners. We suggest that you handicap the race and print out your selected ALL-Ways software Handicapping Reports using the non biased, High Percentage Win Profile. Then, with only the Contender Summary or the Paceline or the Oddsline or the ON-Screen report turned on, handicap the race two more times, once using the early biased profile and once using the late biased profile. Professional Edition users can, of course, use all three profiles simultaneously.

Isn’t it nice how all this ties together? A very good way of handicapping HONEST Pace Shape races is to use the Opposing Pace Gap method presented earlier. A very good way to identify the best opposing pace horses is to use this Opposing Pace Handicapping Profile Strategy.


NEW WEB SITE

The new site has four areas to visit as described below.

Information

(More About ALL-Ways Software)

This area is the promotional part of the site. It is aimed at getting more horseplayers to give ALL-Ways software a try. You may be interested in reading the Phillips Racing Newsletter review of ALL-Ways software. Phillips awarded ALL-Ways software a 9 1/2 rating ... the highest rating they have given to any handicapping product ... ever.

Handicapping Tips

(ALL-Ways Software Newsletters)

All of the ALL-Ways software newsletters can be viewed in this section. They can also be printed on your computer printer. A new newsletter will be added about once per quarter.

Support

(Frequently Asked Questions)

This section answers questions about how specific things are done using ALL-Ways software. It will be updated on a frequent basis. It also includes special subject papers, two of which are available now. One special paper is a short discourse on how ALL-Ways software works. If you are not now using ALL-Ways software or if you are very new to ALL-Ways software, you will find this paper very helpful. The second special paper covers, in great depth, how to create custom Handicapping Profiles. It also explains, again in great depth, how ALL-Ways software uses Handicapping Profiles to create an oddsline.

Users Corner

(Handicapping Tips and Profiles)

This part of the site will not be fully operational until after the release of ALL-Ways software version 7.0 this coming spring. Here is where ALL-Ways software users can help each other.

This section of the site is where we will post handicapping tips that we receive from ALL-Ways software users. You will be able to come to this page and see a catalogue of handicapping tips and then view the tip on your computer screen or print it on your computer printer.

This is also where we will post ALL-Ways Handicapping Profile files for different tracks in North America. You will be able to download the profiles into your computer and use them until you have built up your Race Database for a track .

While Frandsen Publishing will add materials to this section from time to time, the real value of the User’s Corner will be up to ALL-Ways software handicappers. It will be as good as your contributions to the site. Please visit the site for instructions on how to submit your contributions.


NEXT: ALL-Ways Newsletters


Copyright 1996
Frandsen Publishing Corporation
PO Box 1439
Minnetonka, MN 55345
All Rights Reserved

How to reach
Frandsen Publishing

Phone: 612.937.9180
E-Mail:
frandsen@mn.uswest.net
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