November 2003 VOL. 16, NO. 11

Table of Contents

Breeders' Cup Lineup
Steve Wolfson's BC Picks
Wager from Home on the Cup!
COMING IN NOVEMBER
Understanding Track Biases
Calendar
At Your Service

Breeders’ Cup XX


Santa Anita, Saturday, October 25, 2003

Brisnet.com’s All-Star Lineup

FREE Handicapper’s Edge Newsletter – offers updated daily news on all the Cup happenings! The Breeders’ Cup Workout Patrol will report direct from Arcadia, California and provide you the insight on who is training well or not so well leading up to the big raceday. Don’t miss the Track Bandit’s Analysis of all 8 races on Friday, October 24th. Bookmark the Edge so you don’t miss a single edition!

FREE Handicapping Software – choose from 8 different programs designed to give you an edge at the windows. Let packages such as ALL-Ways, Neurax Pro, MultiCaps and Capsheet help you analyze these contentious events. Download any of the programs FREE from Brisnet.com.

Ultimate Past Performances – only these PPs offer Prime Power, Class/Pace/Speed Ratings, Foreign Class Ratings, Pedigree data, Track Bias stats and more. This is one product that truly lives up to its name!

Quick Play PPs – if you’re looking to save time in this era of simulcast wagering, Quick Play PPs is the answer. Along with Pace Ratings and Prime Power, you will get positive and negative comments on every runner in every race. At a glance you can easily separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Timeform – discover what the ‘Away’ Team thinks of their chances on Cup Day. Not only will you get the famous Timeform ratings on all runners, you will tap into incredible insight on all horses from both sides of the Atlantic. Available Wednesday evening for only $10 in either text or PDF format. This is the best report for getting the European perspective.

A Little Help from the Experts:
Wizard Analysis– the Wizard has been known to crush a big race or two with his professional wagering strategies. Last year Domedriver was his third choice in the Mile, and his expert wagering strategies from two races earlier nailed the $361 Pick-3 ending with this longshot from Europe. The Wizard gave out the $152.60 exacta in the Mile, and a trifecta box of his top three choices returned $984.00. A $232 Trifecta later that day in the Turf was another highlight on a successful card.

The Wizard closely follows the progress of all the Cup hopefuls, domestic and abroad, for months leading up to raceday. Tap into his insight for only $15, available Wednesday night. Also, new this year from the Wizard are Head-to-head selections ($8), making your decision easy for who to bet on in this unique wager.

Winner’s Choice – only $10 for unlimited same racedate files, this report offers top selections, best bets, and handicapping angles all on one page per track.

ProfitLine– the newest addition to the Brisnet.com selection sheet lineup. In addition to the professional picks, ProfitLine provides a fair value oddsline for identifying overlays quickly and easily. $5 each or only $10 for unlimited same racedate files

NEW this year at Brisnet.com are expert picks from some of our expert members such as reigning Handicapper of the Year Steve Wolfson, Jr., as well as some inductees in the Handicappers’ Hall of Fame.


Table of Contents

Breeders' Cup Lineup
Steve Wolfson's BC Picks
Wager from Home on the Cup!
COMING IN NOVEMBER
Understanding Track Biases
Calendar
At Your Service

Get the Handicapper of the Year’s Selections for the Breeders’ Cup!

We are very excited to announce that reigning Handicapper of the Year and longtime Brisnet.com member Steve Wolfson, Jr. is our guest handicapper for this year’s Breeders’ Cup.

Steve first made his mark on the handicapping scene by capturing the Saratoga Showdown contest in the summer of 2001. After 30 days of correctly picking a show horse, Steve was the last man standing among thousands of entrants, earning him the $5,000 grand prize.

The next year he qualified for the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship, which was held in January of 2003. After two superb days of handicapping, Steve nabbed the $100,000 grand prize and the coveted Handicapper of the Year title. Now, for the first time ever we are able to offer his selections and analysis for racing’s great day, Breeders’ Cup XX. Beginning Wednesday night, Oct. 22nd, you can download this report with his analysis for all 8 races for only $15.


Table of Contents

Breeders' Cup Lineup
Steve Wolfson's BC Picks
Wager from Home on the Cup!
COMING IN NOVEMBER
Understanding Track Biases
Calendar
At Your Service

Wager from Home on the Cup!

Don’t fight the crowds at the local OTB or racetrack when you can wager from the comfort of home with TwinSpires.com. The best seat for the races is being in the comfort of home while your PC is logged on to TwinSpires.com.

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Table of Contents

Breeders' Cup Lineup
Steve Wolfson's BC Picks
Wager from Home on the Cup!
COMING IN NOVEMBER
Understanding Track Biases
Calendar
At Your Service

COMING IN NOVEMBER

Enjoy accessing 10 FREE Archive Result Charts from the Results Menu during the month of November*. These Result Charts, which are available back to January, 1991, are a great handicapping tool. Research how the track was playing on a given day, and the type of trip a particular horse had – it’s quick and easy.

*does not include result data files or charts from the Archive Server at Brisnet.com


Table of Contents

Breeders' Cup Lineup
Steve Wolfson's BC Picks
Wager from Home on the Cup!
COMING IN NOVEMBER
Understanding Track Biases
Calendar
At Your Service

Understanding and Exploiting Track Biases, Part II


By Richard Nilsen

It is critical for horseplayers to recognize when a track bias is influencing the outcome of the races. In Part II of this feature we’re going to look at some specific examples from this past summer, and illustrate how the Track Bias summary found in the Ultimate Past Performances can help you pinpoint and exploit these biases.

Arlington Park – June 2003

Check out the Ultimate PP Track Bias Summary for a race at Arlington Park,

the Chicago track which runs one mile races daily. This is one of the few tracks in the country where eight furlongs is run around one turn. When this is the case, e.g. Belmont Park, the inside posts are often at a disadvantage and the track bias detail confirms this fact.

First, we can see that 65 races had been run at this distance, giving us a solid sample size to trust. The next area of the report to look at is the wire-to-wire win %, which is self- explanatory. In the upper right hand corner is the average beaten lengths of the typical winner at the first two calls. So, at a glance we can quickly see that only 9% of the eight furlong races have been won on the front end, and the typical winner is 3.0 lengths behind at the first call and 1.6 lengths behind at the second call. This tells us that it is not easy to lead gate to wire but yet tactical speed (based on the beaten lengths) is a valuable asset.

Next we have the running style breakdown. Four running styles are designated based on the position and beaten lengths of each runner at the early calls of the race.

  • E = Early type, a.k.a. frontrunner
  • E/P = Early/Presser or close stalker
  • P = Presser or mid-pack runner
  • S = Sustained closer from back of the pack

    S types, or closers, have a tough time at this distance. The S types have an impact value of 0.73, which indicates that they win only 73% of the time as expected based on the number of S horses in each race. Note: the norm for an impact value is 1.00, which would indicate no advantage or disadvantage.

    From the 65 races run at one mile, the outside posts (8 and beyond) are preferred, as indicated by the “+” sign and the highest impact value. The rail (one hole) is the worst, accounting for a dismal 5% winners and resulting in an extremely low impact value of 0.35. In other words runners from the rail post have won about one-third as many races as expected.

    How could a handicapper exploit this bias at the time? Let's say in a given race, the favorite is breaking from the inside post going one mile at Arlington. Unless this horse is several lengths the best, he could prove to be a great bet-against. Skeptical? All you had to do is watch a few one-mile races at Arlington and you would consistently see the runners along the inside breaking slowly and having to be hustled to get into position. More times than not, this adversely affect their chances of winning. It's always reassuring when you can actually see what the numbers are saying.

    Delaware Park – June 2003

    Here’s a predominant bias that went into overdrive. Speed and inside posts had prevailed in one mile races (two turns) at Delaware Park over the past few meets and 2003 was no exception. However, during the first week of June 3 through June 9, this bias was more dominant than ever.


    From the 16 races run at one mile that week, 62% were captured by runners designated as E types. The second call beaten lengths (0.6) on the summary confirmed that early speed had been dominant during this time period.

    Not only was the inside the place to be, but the outside posts (eight and beyond) did not produce a single winner. If you were wagering on speed horses breaking from the inside, chances are you were cashing a lot of tickets! This intense 'short term' bias is the type that 1) I would want to know about, and 2) I would want to be exploiting until I saw things change.

    The perfect illustration of its utility came early in the Delaware card on June 11, 2003. In race 2, a one-mile maiden claiming event, the favorite was #10 Smile Pretty at 9/5 on the line. She had two major knocks against her: lack of early speed, thus her designation as a Presser, plus the dreaded 10 post. The result: Smile Pretty staggered home sixth as the 5- 2 betting favorite. The winner of this race at 13-1 was an Early/Presser type breaking from, you guessed it, an inside post (two hole).

    Del Mar – August 2003

    For a more recent example, let’s’ look early in the Del Mar meet, which had been favoring speed on the dirt course. Check out the Ultimate Track Bias for race 3 at Del Mar on Friday, Aug. 8.


    E types had won 53% of the one mile races and produced an incredibly high impact value of 2.07. As explained above, this means that frontrunners were capturing twice as many races as expected. Inside posts were also favorable with the one hole proving the best (impact value of 1.55). When handicapping any similar races at that time, one was smart to look for speed from the inside.

    Summary Incorporating track bias knowledge into your handicapping can open up doors of opportunity. Understanding the bias at a given track is the first step to exploiting it. Discovering races where the favorite is vulnerable will appear more often, and finding 'live' longshots who are aided by the prevailing bias should be a more frequent occurrence. I suggest you regularly incorporate this factor into your handicapping starting today and see if it helps your bottom line. Good luck!


  • Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup Lineup
    Steve Wolfson's BC Picks
    Wager from Home on the Cup!
    COMING IN NOVEMBER
    Understanding Track Biases
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    November 2003 Racing Calendar

    [Click Here] - Updated on the 1st of every month


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