October 2004 VOL. 17, NO. 10

Table of Contents

Breeders' Cup XXI
Set Sail for Vegas
Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
Playing the Superfecta
KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
Bob Baffert Testimonial
Calendar
At Your Service

Breeders' Cup XXI enters the Lone Star State

For the first time ever, Lone Star Park is the setting for Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships XXI on October 30, and unlike years past, handicappers have little to go on. The Grand Prairie facility is unfamiliar territory for handicappers used to tackling the Breeders' Cup with a little history on their side.

The dirt and turf courses at Lone Star Park figure to have an important impact on the outcome of the races, and in search of an edge we will take a look at how this track typically plays for similar distance/age levels as the eight Breeders’ Cup events. Statistics date back to the spring of 2002.

The Juvenile Races
Both juvenile races will be run at 1 1/16 miles. There were 131 races run at 8.5 furlongs found in the database. Surprisingly, there was a low wire-to-wire win rate of only 19-percent at this route distance.

Tactical speed was a big plus as the average beaten lengths at the first two calls were 2.7 and 1.4 lengths, respectively. Few one-run closers were victorious, winning far fewer races than expected statistically.

Look for runners who have good tactical speed while preferably breaking from an inside post.

Distaff and Classic
Due to a lack of races at nine furlongs and beyond, we had to analyze dirt routes as a whole. Two-thirds of the winners from 487 dirt routes were within three lengths of the lead at the first call, and 84-percent were that close at the second call. Tactical speed is vital as few deep closers (S types) were victorious around two turns at Lone Star. Post position did not appear to be much of a factor.

The Mile
There were 95 one mile grass races for three year olds and up since 2002. Inside posts held a significant advantage and, conversely, outside posts were a burden.

Speed can win here as 18-percent of the winners were able to lead the field gate to wire. Pressers (P) and Sustained types (S) accounted for 58-percent of the winners, so there is a slight edge to the runners from off the pace. The typical winner was 3.7 lengths from the lead at the first call and 2.3 lengths behind at the second call.

Favor runners breaking from an inside or middle post who are able to keep the leaders within their sights. Separate the contenders by those that are capable of sustaining their late run versus top graded stakes company. Good ratings to utilize here are the BRIS Class Ratings and Late Pace figures.

The Sprint
The track played surprisingly fair from 450 races run at six furlongs for three-year-olds and up. Wire to wire winners accounted for 31-percent of the races but plenty of winners came from stalkers and mid pack runners. Only deep closers, Sustained types, were at a disadvantage.

Winners were also evenly spread out among the post positions. The rail (one hole) did account for 13-percent winners, slightly better than any other post.

Dissect the early BRIS Pace Ratings to determine if a quality speed horse to get "clear" in this field. If there is an abundance of early speed types with comparable pace ratings, look for the winner to come from off the pace.

The Turf Marathons

The Filly & Mare Turf is run at 1 3/8 miles as the fifth leg of the Breeders’ Cup. The $2 million Turf is 1 ½ miles. Unfortunately there is an insufficient sample of turf marathons at Lone Star, giving us little to go on.

It would be wise to put a premium on BRIS Class Ratings when handicapping these fields. The BRIS Class Ratings, which include Foreign Class Ratings on the imports, have done very well at identifying the winners in past years.

Shippers
The analysis also took a look what locations produce turf winners shipping into Lone Star. One circuit stood out above the others. Southern California, specifically Hollywood Park and Santa Anita, produced 21-percent turf winners and 54-percent in-the-money runners from 24 shippers. Compare that to Kentucky, which surprisingly produced only one winner from 20 grass starters for a dismal 5-percent win rate. However there is one caveat with the Southern Cal shippers. Despite their strong win rate, they produced a –1.08 ROI for every $2 wagered.

On the dirt the result was similar as shippers from Southern California were victorious 20% of the time with a –0.84 ROI for every $2 wagered. Kentucky shippers, interestingly, fared significantly better. Invaders from the Bluegrass State won 21-percent from 83 starters for a strong flat bet profit.

Rarely did a shipper come down from the Big Apple. New York invaders won with one of 11 starters on the dirt with only two hitting the board. Given the small sample size, one can take that statistic with a grain of salt.

Stay Informed
It is recommended to stay in tune to the latest Breeders’ Cup happenings via the Handicapper’s Edge newsletter, available free every day at Brisnet.com. You’ll find all the latest news, workouts, trainer/jockey quotes and more related to the big race day. Look for handicapping articles leading up to the big raceday.

Stay informed of the latest Breeders’ Cup happenings and you may just enter this unfamiliar territory a little better prepared than most other handicappers. Good luck!


Table of Contents

Breeders' Cup XXI
Set Sail for Vegas
Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
Playing the Superfecta
KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
Bob Baffert Testimonial
Calendar
At Your Service

Set Sail for Vegas
$60,000 Horseplayer World Series Qualifier
Returns Columbus Day, October 11th

Another Brisnet.com Horseplayer World Series Qualifier is back on Monday, October 11th. Since it's a holiday, top tracks such as Belmont Park will be racing. A second opportunity comes at the end of the month, on Halloween, Sunday, Oct. 31st.

Both October dates are single-day events to qualify for the prestigious $1,000,000 Horseplayer World Series held at Las Vegas' Coast Casinos early 2005.

Unlike the 3-week contests, there will be 10 mandatory races on each of the one-day events. Winning is based on a hypothetical $2 win/place wager on each selection with caps of 25-1 (Win) and 12-1 (Place) respectively.

The $60,000 Horseplayer World Series Qualifier

  • Two upcoming, single-day events:
    --Monday, Oct. 11
    --Sunday, Oct. 31
  • Mythical $2 Win/Place wagers on each selection
  • Caps of 25-1 and 12-1, respectively
  • FREE berths to the $1 Million Championship*
  • Prizes down to 20th place
  • CASH Prizes!
  • FREE Entry exclusively for Brisnet.com members!

    Earn the highest return based on hypothetical $2 win and place wagers and you'll be heading to Las Vegas. Sign up closes on the day of the contest by 1:59 PM ET, but don't delay. You only need to register once to participate in all contests that comprise the $60,000 Horseplayer World Series Qualifier series.

    Get Your Contest PPs
    Customized contest cards will be posted online Saturday evening, Oct. 9, and again on Friday evening, Oct. 29. Download all ten contest races in one file for one low price.

    Visit Brisnet.com/Vegas for contest details, rules, and free registration**.

    * Championship prize money subject to change based on number on entrants.
    ** A Brisnet free membership and computer with Internet access required to participate. One free entry per member.


  • Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Laying Down the Law on Breeders' Cup Day

    No, Walker, Wagner, & Wolfson is not the name of a high-priced law firm. They are the names of the three Handicappers of the Year who will be featured in Brisnet.com Spotlight Selections for the 2004 Breeders' Cup. The talented trio of Judy Wagner, Steve Walker, and Steve Wolfson, Jr. will share their expert analysis and selections for the entire Breeders' Cup card.

    The three former champs are hardly one-hit wonders. Walker has qualified for the championship every year since its inception. Wagner will be returning to Vegas in January for her fourth trip to the Championship, and Wolfson is a multiple tournament winner who won the Championship with a record bankroll. Each stared down the nation's best handicappers and walked away with the crown of Handicapper of the Year.

    Together Walker, Wagner, and Wolfson are a handicapping juggernaut. The formidable trio brings to the table a wealth of handicapping knowledge and proven tournament tested savvy. Now for the first time their collective talents will be on display in this very special Breeders' Cup edition of Spotlight Selections. One report with detailed analysis and selections for all eight Breeders' Cup races from three former champions for only $20.

    Brisnet.com Spotlight Selections will be available online Wednesday night, October 27th.


    Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup


    by Richard Nilsen

    What does it take to make a score at the Breeders' Cup? Racing's greatest day is very attractive to horseplayers for the possibility of nailing a blockbuster payoff…or two. Best of all, you don’t have to hit the guaranteed $3 million Pick-6 to win big on Cup day. As we will see from this extensive exotics study, there are plenty of scores to be had in the exacta and trifecta pools.

    Believe it or not, it was not until the 1990 Classic that a trifecta wager was offered on a Cup race. The first six years of the Breeders’ Cup did not have a trifecta bet on the wagering menu. It was not until 1994 that a trifecta was offered on every race.

    The Breeders’ Cup was a little more progressive with the exacta, offering it on the full card beginning in 1988. However, several Cup races prior to that only allowed straight wagering (win, place, and show).

    Boy, have times changed. Now the horseplayer can choose from Superfectas, rolling Pick-3s, rolling Pick-4s, a monstrous Pick-6, and even Head-to-Head wagers.

    There have been some incredible values over the years, including:

  • 1987 Juvenile - 2nd choice Success Express (4-1) with 3rd choice Regal Classic (7-2) returned $104.00 for $2 exacta.
  • 1990 Mile - favorite Royal Academy (5-2) over Itsallgreektome (36-1) returned $470.60 for a $2 exacta.
  • 1993 Classic - a backwheel of favorite Bertrando (6-5) returned $1,015.40 for a $2 exacta when bomb Arcangues (133-1) shocked the racing world.
  • 1998 Juvenile - favorite Answer Lively (5-2) with Aly’s Alley (76-1) returned $631.40 for a $2 exacta.
  • 2001 Classic - 4th choice Tiznow (7-1) with third choice Sakhee (9-2) returned $140.50 for a $2 exacta. The trifecta with Albert The Great (13-1) in the third slot returned $1,341 for a $2 wager.

    Average Payoffs
    Let’s start with the basics. In two decades of Breeders’ Cup action, 134 exactas and 76 trifectas have been offered. The average $2 exacta has returned just over $215. The average $1 trifecta payoff has been just over $1,457, with 41 of the 76 being taxable trifectas. Yes, Uncle Sam wants you to play the trifecta!

    Winning favorites have scored at a healthy 36.5% clip from the 145 races.

    Odds-on Analysis
    There have been 18 exactas that involved an odds-on favorite who finished first or second (last year there were none). The average payoff in those circumstances was $34.11. Consider that an odds-on horse is more than twice as likely to win as to run second.

    The average $1 trifecta payoff has been $253.71 when an odds-on runner has finished in the money. The high payoff from the 10 occurrences was $644.10 in the 1996 Classic when Cigar at odds of 3-5 finished third.

    Field Size
    As one might expect, field size can have a significant bearing on the exotic payoffs. Since there have been so many full fields over the past few years, I used nine horses as the cutoff for this analysis. There have been 37 Breeders’ Cup events with nine or fewer betting interests. The average exacta has returned $123. The average trifecta has returned $767. Winning favorites have scored 14 times for a 37.8% rate.

    There have been many more races (108) with at least 10 betting interests. The average exacta has returned a healthy $248, while the average trifecta has returned $1,615. Winning favorites have scored 38 times for a 35.2% rate, slightly less than the overall average of 36.5% discussed earlier.

    Longshot Analysis
    From the 145 Breeders’ Cup run to date, how many times do you think a longshot at odds of 20-1 or higher placed first or second? Would you believe 44 times? That’s a lot of races. In fact, it’s 30% of all the Cup races over the past 20 years.

    If you were lucky enough to hit the exacta involving one of these longshots (38 wagering opportunities), on average, you would have received $463 for every $2 wagered.

    Consider also that of the 44 races, longshots won 17 times, and only once did longshots finish both first AND second.

    Trifecta Strategies
    Instead of spreading your money around - $10 here, $20 there - take a good swing at one or two races. Pinpoint the one or two races on the card you feel most confident about. Then, identify preferably one key horse and the must-use runners underneath.

    If you’re playing the trifecta, you can key one horse over six runners for only $30. Or, you can wheel two horses (one of which must win) over six horses, which of course would include the top two, for only $40.

    Another variation would include going deep in the third tier. Key one horse over the five other contenders and then use ALL in the third slot. Based on a 14-horse field, that’s a $60 wager. You could use the ‘key’ horse in the second slot, putting the five runners on top, for an additional $60. With that strategy a "bad beat" could still result in a major score!

    Below are the examples just discussed:

  • #1 keyed over #2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 = $30
  • #1, 2 with #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 = $40
  • #1 with #2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with ALL = $60
  • #2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with #1 with ALL = $60

    There are plenty of other ways to play the trifecta. By concentrating on one or two good opportunities, you’ll have the time to come up with the correct wagering strategy and increase your chances of winning. Best of luck and hope to see you at the IRS Window!


  • Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files

    Brisnet.com and Fransden Publishing have teamed up to offer meet packages for the following upcoming meets: Keeneland, Oak Tree at Santa Anita, and Lone Star. At prices well below Gold discounted rates, the meet packages allow you to download ALL-Ways files for every day of the meet(s). The discounted packages are ideal for players looking to tackle these premier summer tracks.

  • Keeneland (17 days): $95 for entire meet

  • Oak Tree at Santa Anita (26 days): $145 for entire meet

  • Lone Star Park (19 days): $106 for entire meet

    Visit the link on the ALL-Ways data files page or click here to take advantage of these discounted packages at significant savings. Remember with ALL-Ways data files you can print Ultimate PPs through Custom PP Generator at no extra charge.


  • Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    Playing the Superfecta from Top-to-Bottom


    re-printed from the ALL-Ways handicapping newsletter, January 2001

    We always look forward to what we consider to be "playable" Superfectas. There generally is at least one good play on a card. And, many tracks are offering this wager on more and more races. This makes it easier to be patient and selective in the races we play. 

    The Superfecta clearly offers the opportunity for big scores with payoffs frequently in the thousands of dollars and sometimes even tens of thousands. And, it is much easier to hit than the Pick Six. In the 2000 Breeders' Cup all five Superfectas on the card paid $5,000 or more (based on a $1 wager), including the whopping $99,813 payoff in the BC Turf. As another example, just before sending this newsletter to print, this author hit back-to-back Superfectas in the 4th and 5th races at Turfway Park. The $2 payoffs were $4,378 and $6,239 respectively. We had $1 tickets. 

    In this article, we are going to explore four different areas that will help point us in the right direction for playing this wager successfully. We will cover: 
    1. Top heavy tickets
    2. When to pass or play
    3. How to reduce combinations wagered
    4. Handicapping for 3rd and 4th place

    Top Heavy Tickets 
    Ask yourself, "Is it easier to handicap for win and place horses or is it easier to handicap for the 3rd and 4th place finishers?" The answer, of course, is that it is much easier to handicap for the top two finishers. Now, consider one very popular way to play the Superfecta. Here is what the ticket would look like. 

    ABC / ABCD / ABCDE / ABCDEF

    A $1 Superfecta ticket of this type costs $81. Actually, in the right circumstances, this ticket makes sense. Indeed, we have played it successfully on occasion. However, more often than not, we would consider this to be a “Top Heavy” ticket.  

    Now, consider the following ticket.

    AB / ABC / ABCDEFG / ABCDEFG

    A $1 Superfecta with this ticket costs $80, about the same as the "Top Heavy" ticket. However, this ticket has horse "F" in the 3rd position in addition to the 4th slot and it has added horse "G" to both the 3rd and 4th slots. What we have done is to remove some combinations at the top of the ticket, which are easier to handicap, in favor of adding more combinations on the bottom of the ticket, which are more difficult to handicap. So, one of our recommendations is to move some combinations from “Top to Bottom”. More on this later.

    When to Pass or Play 
    More often than not, the Superfecta should be passed. It is very important to be selective. This is a high-risk bet and you should play it only if you have the opportunity for a big payoff. There are two simple rules we follow to determine if we will pass or play the Superfecta. 

    1. The underlying Trifecta must be playable. 
    2. The going-off crowd favorite must be, in our opinion, a false favorite. We must be convinced the favorite will not win. 

    To determine if the underlying Trifecta is playable, we use the chart below which we first presented in our July 1997 Newsletter.

    Pass or Play the Trifecta
    FavoriteLong OddsPass or
    In-the-MoneyIn-the-MoneyPlay
    yesno pass
    yesyesplay
    nonoplay
    noyescrush

    When we refer to a "long odds" horse, we are referring to horses that are going off at 10 to 1 or higher, the higher the better, of course. The Trifecta is not playable if the favorite figures to finish in-the-money and no long-odds horse figures to finish in-the-money. Otherwise the Trifecta is generally playable including the probability of high payoffs when the favorite figures to finish off-the-board. 

    To repeat: We will play the Superfecta ONLY if the Trifecta is playable AND the favorite is a false favorite.

    Reducing the Number of Combinations 
    There are good ways to reduce the number of combinations you play in your Superfecta ticket. This will reduce the cost of the ticket. You can pocket the dollars you save or you may want to reinvest them to add additional horses on the bottom of the ticket (moving combinations from top to bottom). Let’s look at techniques for reducing combinations. We will relate these back to the common Superfecta ticket presented earlier. Here is that $81 ticket for a $1 Superfecta. 

    ABC / ABCD / ABCDE / ABCDEF 

    There are two key methods of reducing the number of combinations or moving combinations from top to bottom. They are: 1) Trifecta Plus and; 2) Key Horse With Required Finish. 

    Trifecta Plus
    In our July 1997 ALL-Ways Newsletter, in the second part of our series on playing the Trifecta, we introduced the concept of developing your Trifecta ticket by first developing an Exacta ticket. We showed how to take an Exacta ticket of AB/ABC and turn it into a Trifecta ticket of AB/ABC/ABCDE. You might want to go back and look at the newsletter. It has some very good ideas for selecting these horses. Now, what we are saying regarding the Superfecta, is to take this Trifecta ticket and turn it into a Superfecta ticket. It might look like this.  

    AB / ABC / ABCDE / ABCDEF 

    This reduces the wager from $81 to only $36 and we have added Horse F into the wager, now covering a total of six horses in the race. You have a choice at this point. You can pocket the savings in the cost of the wager or you can add additional combinations to the bottom of the ticket. For example, the ticket below adds horses “G”, “H” and “I” to the fourth slot.  

    AB / ABC / ABCDE / ABCDEFGHI 

    This ticket costs $72 but now covers nine horses in the race. 

    Again, we suggest you read the July 1997 Newsletter. It will be very helpful constructing a Trifecta Plus ticket. You can view/print the newsletter from the All-Ways data files page at Brisnet.com which has a link to the newsletter archive. 

    Key Horse with Required Finish

    Very simply, this requires that we select one of the top horses as our Key Horse. This is a horse that we feel confident will finish in the Top 3. What we are really hoping for in the Superfecta is for the crowd favorite to finish off-the-board. So, the crowd favorite must never be our Key Horse. Here is what the ticket above would look like if we select horse “A” as our Key Horse. Actually, it is three tickets, one for each of the possible finishing positions of the Key Horse.  

    Ticket$1 Cost 
    A / BC / BCDE / BCDEFGHI$36
    B / A / CDE / CDEFGHI $18
    B / C / A / DEFGHI $ 6
     

    By using a key horse, we reduce the total cost to just $60. We can either "pocket" this savings or we can invest it to put more horses in the 3rd and/or 4th spot. For example, we could add 2 more horses to the 4th slot as shown below. 

    A / BC / BCDE / BCDEFGHIJK$48
    B / A / CDE / CDEFGHIJK$24
    B / C / A / DEFGHIJK $ 8 

    This gets us back to an $80 ticket, but the ticket covers eleven horses in the field. Stop and think now how far we have come. We started with an $81 ticket that covered six horses. We now have an $80 ticket that covers eleven horses. We did this by moving combinations from the top half of the ticket (which is easier to handicap) to the bottom half of the ticket (which is difficult to handicap) and by requiring that we select one horse in the race (not the favorite) to finish either first, second or third. 

    We are not suggesting that all your Superfecta tickets include eleven horses. Indeed, the $6239 Superfecta in the fifth at TPX had only eight horses in the race. What we are suggesting is that you construct your wager such that you have fewer combinations in the Win and Place slots in favor of more combinations in the 3rd and 4th slots.

    Handicapping for 3rd and 4th Place 
    It is very difficult to handicap for the third place finisher and even more difficult for the fourth place finisher. That is why we have spent so much time figuring out how to get more horses into our wager at the bottom of the ticket. There are, however, some very good handicapping factors in ALL-Ways software that have proven to be effective for selecting these horses.  

    Final Fraction Pace Figures 


    By far, the most powerful single handicapping factor for finding the 3rd and 4th place finishers is a horse’s Final Fraction Pace figure. You should include all horses that rank in the top part of the field for any of the BRIS or Hall Final Fraction figures including either the Paceline FF figure or the Best 2 of 3 FF figure. By “top part of the field” we mean there is a noticeable gap of at least two or three points between the last horse you include and the first horse you exclude. 

    Combined Pace Rating 
    The Combined Pace Rating in ALL-Ways software is the sum of a horse’s Early Pace Rating and its Final Fraction Rating. Include all horses in the top part of the field for the BRIS or Hall Combined Pace Rating. In this case, we usually restrict this to the Best 2 of 3 figures.

    Dangerous Non-Contenders 
    After ALL-Ways software automatically selects contenders in a race, it looks at each remaining horse to see if it can spot anything that may make it “dangerous” in today’s race. If it finds something, it designates the horse as a Dangerous Non-Contender. We suggest you include such horses in the bottom part of your Superfecta ticket.  

    The ALL-Ways Paceline Report is great for handicapping Superfecta plays. In addition to fundamental class, speed and comprehensive figures, it includes all the pace figures and track bias statistics. Contenders and Dangerous Non Contenders are highlighted as well.  

    A Word about Class and Layoffs 
    Low class horses and long layoff horses do indeed often finish 3rd or 4th. So, we do not eliminate such horses. If we just have too many horses for our ticket and feel we must eliminate one or two of these kinds of horses, be sure NOT to eliminate horses with good Back Speed or good Back Class.  

    Summary 
    A few years back, a new ALL-Ways handicapper with a young family and modest means telephoned to thank us for a wonderful Christmas present. He had bet a straight $2 Superfecta ticket using ALL-Way software’s first four picks in exact order. He won the Superfecta with a $10,000 payoff. Like the television commercial says: “I love my job!” Obviously, Superfectas usually require that we bet a number of combinations. We hope this article helps you to decide which Superfectas to play and which to pass and how best to craft your tickets. 


    Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    Get the Edge for KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR


    Now online are PDF versions of Track Stats for Keeneland, Lone Star and Oak Tree at Santa Anita! Only $10 each, the single-track versions contain all the track and meet stats you need to attack the races. No shipping cost and no waiting! Simply download the book to your computer for instant viewing or printing. You'll have the answers to your questions whenever you need them!

    Each book contains:

  • Detailed Trainer Stats in 20+ categories
  • The Best & Worst trainer/jockey combos
  • Horses for Courses
  • Shipper statistics
  • Track Bias detail for every track/distance
  • and much more!

    Single-edition Track Stats are perfect for loading on to your laptop for taking to the track or OTB. Visit the Brisnet.com Online Bookstore today to get your copy.


  • Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup


    Wagering from the comfort of his own office, which he has converted into a personal simulcast facility, Michael Kipness has put serious money through the parimutuel pools for years. At the same time he runs one of racing’s most successful selection sheet operations. The handicapper who goes by the moniker "The Wizard" shared his insights into how he attacks the Breeders' Cup.

    Q. One of your most popular sheets each year is your in-depth analysis of the Breeders' Cup with wagering strategies. What goes into your preparation before handicapping the big day of racing?

    A. Watching the races all year is the greatest preparation I can do for the Breeders' Cup. When I do the major stakes packages for BRIS throughout the year, I'm able to keep a close eye on the stakes.

    It's a little different than getting the PPs a few weeks out and just handicapping the races. Watching all these major races I have a good visual when I look back at the PPs of the horses entered for the Breeders' Cup. I can visually remember all the races, which makes the PPs, in many ways, three-dimensional.

    If I have to refer to anything I have all the major stakes PPs in a three-ring binder. That way it's very easy to go back and look at a race for reference.

    I try to see which horses are going to peak on that day. Many horses are "over the top" come Breeders' Cup day. It's really important to identify which runners have been properly prepared.

    The other thing is that good trainers win these races. The trainers that have been there before, and won these races, are the ones that typically shine on the "big" day.

    What is also important is the configuration of the track. Take an unbelievable filly like Sightseek who is unbeatable at Belmont Park. When she goes to Santa Anita she is just an ordinary horse. Lone Star is similar to Santa Anita with the tight turns, so that is a dilemma facing trainer Bobby Frankel.

    I'm a visual handicapper not a numbers guy. That's what led me to pick Sunday Silence over Easy Goer in the Breeders' Cup. Because of the tighter turns and speed-conducive Gulfstream track, the edge had to go to Sunday Silence who was more of an athlete than Easy Goer. That led me to make Sunday Silence a best bet on the Breeders' Cup card. I knew that trainer Charlie Whittingham had worked Sunday Silence on the far turn of the track days before the race, so he was asking for speed for the colt at the stretch turn of the race. Sunday Silence would have the jump on Easy Goer at a critical stage in the race. I witnessed that work and it clinched the selection for me.

    That's where a workout or race and the style of the horse can be crucial. I'm looking for those kinds of things. Speed figures are not meaningless to me but I approach the races from a different perspective. My "feel" for the races gives me an edge.

    It's not like tackling a meet where you can get into a rhythm and feel for the races. I got into a rhythm for the recent Saratoga meet, but with the Breeders' Cup you are dealt 8 races on one given day. With the Breeders' Cup you have to create your "rhythm."

    Q. How do you analyze the European imports?

    A. With the European invaders, I will watch as many of their races as possible. I don't read a lot about those races because I want to see the races for myself. I will read some material to see what the trainers' intent are, but I don't want to be influenced by what some European handicapper writes. Again, watching the races is key.

    Q. What wagering strategies do you use on Cup day, and what advice would you give to bettors?

    A. I prefer Pick-3s because I love them when the pools are big. This is the same reason I love the Pick-3s and Trifectas at Saratoga. The pools are big and enhanced by some uninformed money. It's critical to beat a favorite in one of those legs. If you can beat two favorites, you're in a great shape. Of course, you don't want to hook up three favorites.

    It's not bad to do an "all" if you have a strong opinion on one leg of the Pick-3. Some of these races are so competitive, so it can be best to identify your key wagering opportunities, where you do an opinion. If you have five to six horses in a race, it can best to do an "all." Otherwise, it can come back to bite you! An example was one of the recent NTRA Pick-4s. I didn't have the winner in the first leg but I used "all" in my wagering strategies. A 10-1 shot won the first leg and helped me land a profitable wager.

    I would never suggest making a win bet on any horse that is going to be selected by many people. I'm looking to make bets where the public is going to make a mistake. You really don't want to take a win bet on an obvious horse. It's best to take a strong opinion on an obvious horse and play with him in the exotics.

    When I say that Pick-3s are "the play" on Breeders' Cup day, you still live by the sword and die by the sword. If you don't have the winners, it doesn't matter what wager you make.


    Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    Testimonial from Bob Baffert


    "I use a lot of BRIS for my pedigree research and for selecting races. For purchasing runners I can get the numbers quicker than other guys. I will get the BRIS numbers the day after the race is run, and since they come out quicker than the other services, it gives me an edge over the competition. It gives me a two day jump.

    I trust Brisnet because they are done by computer... it lets me know if I have them in the right spot." -- trainer Bob Baffert, HorsePlayer Magazine July/Aug. 2004


    Table of Contents

    Breeders' Cup XXI
    Set Sail for Vegas
    Walker, Wagner & Wolfson
    Making a Score at the Breeders’ Cup
    Meet Packages for ALL-Ways files
    Playing the Superfecta
    KEENELAND, OAK TREE, LONE STAR
    How a Professional Prepares for the Cup
    Bob Baffert Testimonial
    Calendar
    At Your Service

    October 2004 Racing Calendar

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