Breeders' Cup Reports SuperTote Handicapper's Edge Bloodstock Journal Stable Alert
The Handicapper's Library
Selections, Programs, and PP's Results and Charts Pedigrees and Lifetime Starts APR Online BRISnet Home

USING PEDIGREE STATISTICS FOR HANDICAPPING

The pedigree statistics in The Handicapper's Database for maiden and turf races are extremely powerful, when used properly and should be used only BEFORE a runner establishes its preferences for distance and surface conditions. Once a runner demonstrates its preferences, disregard the runner's pedigree for handicapping.

AN EXAMPLE OF PEDIGREE STATISTICS ON A RUNNER:

RECKLESS ROSE, 21FEB85 114, $ 10,500, JKY: FP FUENTES
 BY THE IRISH LORD (333fls)(75%wnr)(44%2ywnr)(16%1st)(17%mud)(awd6.3)(spi1.79)
 - GO SOUTH (p)(4str)(3wnrs)(1sw)(25%2ywnrs)(dpi3.88)
EXPLANATIONS OF THE NUMERICAL INDEXES & RATINGS

STANDARD STARTS INDEX (SSI)
A numerical racing index based on average earnings per start of a runner in North America. It allows a comparison of racing performance of horses regardless of their year of birth or sex. The computation of the SSI takes into account inflation and the lower earning potential of fillies. The SSI is calculated by taking all the foals born in a given year and determining that crop's average earnings per start for each year that crop raced, calculating colts and fillies separately. A runner's SSI is no longer recalculated after five years of racing.

For example, the average earnings per start at two for all colts foaled in 1960 was $400; and the average earnings per start at two for all fillies foaled in 1960 was $283. Thus, a colt foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $400 has an SSI of 1.00. And a filly foaled in 1960 with average earnings per start at two of $283 also has an SSI of 1.00. Both the colt and filly have the same SSI due to the higher lifetime earning expectancy of colts.

A runner with an index of 1.00 is considered to be of the same caliber as all other runners with indexes of 1.00 regardless of the year foaled or sex. Thus, a colt foaled in 1930 which had an average per start of $94 and an SSI of 1.00 for his crop and sex would be considered of the same caliber as a colt foaled in 1960 with an average earnings per start of $400 and an SSI of 1.00.

DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (DPI)
The DPI indicates the average racing class of a mare's foals. It is an average of the SSIs of all of a mare's foals that have started three or more times in North America.

SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX (SPI)
The SPI indicates the average racing class of a stallion's foals. It is an average of the SSIs of all of a stallion's foals that have started three or more times in North America. This can be subdivided by sex of the foals as well, comparing the average SSI of his colts with that of his fillies.

THE FIRST LINE CONTAINS RUNNER INFORMATION:

"RECKLESS ROSE"   = THE RUNNER'S NAME

"21FEB85"         = THE RUNNER'S FOALING DATE
                    By   knowing   the   actual  birthdates  of  two-year-olds,
                    handicappers  have  an  edge  at  the betting windows.  The
                    "early"  foals  (Jan-Mar)  have a tremendous advantage over
                    "late" foals, due to their maturity advantage.

"114"             = ASSIGNED WEIGHT FOR THE RACE ENTERED

"$10,500"         = HIGHEST PUBLIC AUCTION PRICE

"JKY: FP FUENTES" = JOCKEY FOR THE RACE ENTERED
THE SECOND LINE CONTAINS SIRE STATISTICS:

"THE IRISH LORD"  = THE RUNNER'S SIRE'S NAME

(333fls)          = THE NUMBER OF FOALS BY THE SIRE
                    Bloodstock  Research recommends that handicappers demand at
                    least  fifty  (50)  foals  by  a sire before weighting that
                    sire's  pedigree  statistics heavily.  This will insure the
                    reliability of the information.

                 Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.

(75%wnr)          = THE PERCENTAGE OF STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE RACE BY
                    THE SIRE.
                    The higher the %wnr the better.

(44%2ywnr)         = THE PERCENTAGE OF 2-YEAR-OLD STARTERS TO HAVE WON AT LEAST
                    ONE RACE
                    In two-year-old races, prefer runners with a high "%2ywnr".

(16%1st)          = WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME STARTERS
                    Any  first-time starter with a %1st greater than 15% should
                    be  considered  a  threat  to  win at first asking.  Is the
                    runner  ready? Check  the  runner's  workout  tab  and  the
                    trainer's   competence   with   first-time  starters.    In
                    addition,  the handicapper should look for a leading jockey
                    or stable rider.

 NOTE: AFTER A RUNNER HAS RACED, DO NOT USE THE %1ST IN YOUR HANDICAPPING.

(17%MUD)          = THE WIN PERCENTAGE OF MUD STARTS BY THE SIRE
                    If  a  runner hasn't yet demonstrated a liking or disliking
                    for  mud  and  today's  track  is  muddy, use the "%mud" to
                    predict  the runner's preference.  Prefer runners with high
                    "%mud" percentages.

(AWD6.3)             = THE AVERAGE WINNING DISTANCE (IN FURLONGS) OF THE SIRE'S
                    WINNERS
                    Among  first-time  starters  entered  in  sprints, look for
                    runners  with  an  AWD close to distance of the race you're
                    handicapping,  but  prefer  AWDs shorter than the distance.
                    These  first-time  starters are the most likely to show the
                    early  speed  that  dominates these races.  If a first-time
                    starter's AWD is larger than desired (ie., greater than
                    6.5  in  a 6 furlong sprint), the handicapper should become
                    strict  on  other  measures of early speed - in particular,
                    demand  a  relatively  high  %1st and/or at least one short
                    work out at three or four furlongs indicating "strong
                    speed".    Generally,  workouts  of  about  12  seconds per
                    furlong   is  a  good  indication  of  speed.  For  runners
                    "stretching  out"  (sprint  to  route)  for the first time,
                    prefer  those  runners whose sire shows an AWD of seven (7)
                    furlongs or more.  These first time "stretch outs" are more
                    likely  to  show  the  stamina  it takes to cover the extra
                    distance in these races.

(spi1.79)           = The Sire's Production Index is a numerical representation
                    of  a  sire's  class  and  consistency, based upon relative
                    earnings.  The calculation of the SPI involves the ratio of
                    a sire's colts and fillies average earnings per start for a
                    year,  respectively, and the average earnings per start for
                    all  colts  and  fillies,  respectively, for the same year.
                    The  average  SPI  of  all sires is 1.00. The SPI is useful
                    with first-time starters and first-time stretchouts.
                    While  the  SPI  is  not as powerful as some other pedigree
                    statistics (%1st and awd), it is quite helpful when used to
                    separate otherwise equal first-time starters and first-time
                    stretchouts.  
                Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
ON TURF RACES THE FOLLOWING STATISTICS WILL ALSO APPEAR:
           
( %tfwins)       =  WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S STARTERS ON THE TURF
                    %tfwins  is best used to evaluate first-time turf starters.
                    %tfwins  combined  with %1sttf is a reliable indicator of a
                    runner's probable liking/disliking to the turf.  Obviously,
                    the handicapper prefers the higher percentages.

( %1sttf)        =  WIN PERCENTAGE OF THE SIRE'S FIRST-TIME TURF STARTERS
                    Any  first-time turf starter with a %1sttf greater than 15%
                    should  be  considered a threat - regardless of recent form
                    on the dirt.
THE THIRD LINE CONTAINS DAM STATISTICS:

Dam statistics, in general, should be weighted considerably less than sire statistics. The lighter weighting of dams is justified simply on the basis of numbers. Since a stallion may sire hundreds of foals, his statistics are far more reliable than that of a dam who produces just a few. Still, dam statistics can be helpful (ie., to separate otherwise equal first-time starters).

"GO SOUTH"      =   THE DAM'S NAME

(p)             =   THE  DAM'S  RACE PERFORMANCE.  The best race performance of
                    GO SOUTH was "placed". Prefer in descending order:
                    sw -  stakes winner
                    sp -  stakes placed
                     w -  winner
                     p -  placed
                    up -  unplaced
                    ur -  unraced

(4str)          =   THE NUMBER OF FOALS WHICH STARTED AT LEAST ONE RACE
                    Demand  at  least  4  starters  out  of  the  Dam to assure
                    reliability of the information.

(3wnrs)         =   THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A RACE
                    Obviously, the more winners the better.

(1sw)           =   THE NUMBER OF STARTERS THAT HAVE WON A STAKES RACE
                    Again, the more stakes winners the better.

(25%2ywnrs)     =   THE  PERCENTAGE  OF  STARTERS  THAT  WON  A  ONE  RACE AS A
                    TWO-YEAR-OLD.
                    In  two-year-old  races,  runners with a high "%2ywnrs" are
                    preferred.

(dpi3.88)       =   DAM'S PRODUCTION INDEX (SEE SIRE PRODUCTION INDEX FOR
                    EXPLANATION)
                    Like  the  SPI,  the  DPI  is  useful  for separating young
                    runners  with  little or no racing record.  The handicapper
                    prefers runners with the higher DPI.
                 Bloodstock Research Information Services, Inc.
APPLICATIONS OF PEDIGREEE STATISTICS:
******************************************************************************
*                                                                            *
*    DANCING LINDSAY, 86 117, TR: GOSDEN JOHN H M, JKY: CA BLACK             *
*                                                                            *
*  BY LILOY (FR) (193fls)(51%wnr)(14%2ywnr)(2%1st)(13%mud)(awd7.7)(spi2.15)  *
*   - BOLD BRAT (sw)(4str)(1wnrs)(1sw)(0%2ywnrs)(dpi2.01)                    *
* 25Jy88HOL06 6f     FT 03 5 1/4   Gosden J Md Sp Wt  111.5   111.9 57 26000 *
* 10Jy88HOL04 6f     FT 09 19      Gosden J Md Sp Wt  111.7   107.8 44 26000 *
*                                                                            *
******************************************************************************
In two-year-old maiden races at a mile (or more), handicappers should concentrate their analysis of the race on those runners which figure to benefit at the distance. With most two-year-old-races carded at sprint distances, many two-year-olds bred for the longer distances must enter sprints until a race at a favorable distance is carded.

The sixth race at Del Mar on September 7, 1988 was at one mile for two-year-old maidens. Handicapper's with Bloodstock Research's pedigree information could have easily spotted a tremendous overlay. In a race filled with runners stretching out for the first time in their young careers, Dancing Lindsay figured to benefit the most from the added distance - as evidenced by an AWD of 7.7. This lightly raced filly was exiting a good effort at six furlongs in only her second career start. Placed at a more comfortable distance, she figured to show more improvement. With the generous odds of 12.5 to 1, Dancing Lindsay was a license to steal. She won easily paying $27.00.


*******************************************************************************
*                                                                             *
*  DECOY, 86 118, JKY: A CORDERO JR                                           *
*                                                                             *
*BY CLEVER TRICK (241fls)(72%wnr)(50%2ywnr)(21%1st)(16%mud)(awd6.5)(spi2.28)  *
* - BRIDGE TABLE (ur)(3str)(3wnrs)(0sw)(33%2ywnrs)(dpi3.13)                   *
*                      No Previous North American Starts                      *
*                                                                             *
*******************************************************************************
Two-year-old maiden races are dominated by runners with early speed. Runners expected to be up front early combined with moderate to high odds present handicappers with solid investment opportunities.

The fourth race at Belmont on September 7, 1988 was a 5 1/2 furlong sprint for maiden two-year-olds. This race powerfully demonstrates the value of Bloodstock Research's pedigree information. Decoy, a first-time starter, was obviously well bred - as indicated by a SPI of 2.28 and a DPI of 3.13 . And more importantly his pedigree statistics indicated an ability to win at first asking - as indicated by a %1st of 21%! The AWD of 6.5 is acceptable - especially, considering the high %1st and a 3f workout in :36 flat from the gate (printed in the Daily Racing Form).

At odds of nearly 8 to 1, Decoy was a solid investment and proved to be a profitable one. He went wire to wire, while never being threatened paying $17.80.

The Handicapper's Library contains other helpful reference documents.


[ Sign-up ] [ Products & Prices ] [ Bookstore ] [ Track Info ]
[ Library ] [ Tech Support ] [ F.A.Q. ] [ Member Services ] [ Contact Us ]

brisnet Copyright 2002 Bloodstock Research Information Services www.brisnet.com (800) 354-9206