Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

OCTOBER 7, 2005

by Dick Powell

As Bobby "The Brain" Heenan used to say in professional wrestling, "Just when

you think you have the answers, I change the questions."

Many major stakes races were run last weekend but answers were not always

provided and new questions were asked.

The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) should have been the definitive prep

race for the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). Run at 1 1/4 miles at Belmont, the site

for this year's Breeders' Cup, the Gold Cup drew a competitive field of eight

with seven betting interests. Todd Pletcher took note of Rick Dutrow's success

in using rabbits in the Woodward (G1) three weeks earlier to set up SAINT LIAM'S

(Saint Ballado) easy victory so he entered Bishop Court Hill (Holy Bull) to

insure a swift pace for Flower Alley (Distorted Humor).

However, when the gate sprung open, Chantal Sutherland had trouble with

Bishop Court Hill to relax early and she was not able to clear the field and set

the fast pace that Pletcher wanted to soften up Lava Man (Slew City Slew).

Flower Alley was way too fresh coming off a layoff and when his rabbit didn't

clear the field he wound up contesting a fast pace.

"Flower Alley was just a little too fresh," Pletcher said. "I know everyone

is going to say that the 'rabbit' (Bishop Court Hill) is why he got beat. Flower

Alley was just too rank. It had nothing to do with the 'rabbit.' Johnny said

that (Rafael) Bejarano left the gate chirping, and Flower Alley went on the

bridle too fast. He was either going to be locked up with Lava Man on the

outside or Bishop Court Hill on the inside. It really didn't, in my eyes, have

anything to do with the 'rabbit.' I think we will try again. He ran a hell of a

lot better than the other two that were up there with him."

With a first half in :46.73 and three horses battling for the lead, it was

obvious that one of the closers was going to benefit. BORREGO (El Prado) was

dead last down the backstretch but midway around the far turn he began to pick

up horses willingly with Garrett Gomez sitting as chilly as could be. In the

blink of an eye, the winner of the Pacific Classic (G1) went from last to first

and turned for home with a three-length lead. The only question left to be

answered was the final margin and Gomez throttled down and won by 4 1/2 lengths

in 2:02.86. It could have easily been 10 lengths.

You would think that a horse that just won two straight Grade 1 stakes at 10

furlongs would not have many questions left to be answered, but I think Borrego

still has a lot to prove. In both of his wins, he was the beneficiary of fast

paces and in retrospect the field he beat in the Gold Cup might not have been

that tough. If you like Borrego, forget the rest of the Gold Cup field next time

out in the Classic. If you don't like Borrego, you're going to have to go

outside of the Gold Cup for a contender in the Classic.

Out in Southern California, ROCK HARD TEN (Kris S.) was making his first

start since dominating the Santa Anita H. (G1) back in March. Winner of his last

three stakes starts and training up a storm for Dick Mandella, he only faced

three rivals in the $500,000 Goodwood Breeders' Cup H. (G2) at Santa Anita and

figured to be at a major pace disadvantage.

Haskell Invitational (G1) winner Roman Ruler (Fusaichi Pegasus) wound up on

the lead and was allowed to set a very slow pace. With a half in :48.62 and

three quarters in 1:12.12, it looked like Roman Ruler might be able to go gate

to wire, but Gary Stevens had Rock Hard Ten in the perfect stalking position --

probably a little closer than he wanted but in striking range of Roman Ruler.

Stevens engaged Roman Ruler around the far turn and despite a game effort by

Roman Ruler, Rock Hard Ten prevailed by a length in 1:48.68 with his last three

furlongs run around 36 seconds flat. Choctaw Nation (Louis Quatorze) was a game

third with no help up front, but he's never won going 10 furlongs.

At the moment, the big three for the Classic all look like the older horses -

Rock Hard Ten, Borrego and Saint Liam. The sophomores that are left in training

just don't seem to be up to it.

*****

ASHADO (Saint Ballado) has been a tad inconsistent this year and threw in a

clinker in the Personal Ensign (G1) at the end of the Saratoga meet. The winner

of last year's Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), she went into last Saturday's Beldame

(G1) with lots of questions, especially competing against five other Grade 1

stakes winners.

Without much pace in the long run down the backstretch at Belmont, Velazquez

had her in a stalking position on the outside of a modest pace. After a half-mile in :47.64, Velazquez turned up the heat with a :23.84 third quarter and

began to break the race open. Society Selection (Coronado's Quest) made a big

middle move around the turn but flattened out, and Ashado looked like she was

going to romp to a huge victory.

However, a gusty filly from Louisiana had other things in mind. Happy Ticket

(Anet) won the Ballerina S. (G1) last time out going seven furlongs. Winner of

10 races in 11 starts, Happy Ticket began to rally relentlessly and made Ashado

work right to the wire. Ashado held on by a half-length in the good time of

1:48.88 and Happy Ticket showed once again that she belongs in Grade 1 company.

*****

California and Gomez was represented earlier on Saturday's Belmont card when

TASTE OF PARADISE (Conquistador Cielo) rallied from far back to win the Vosburgh

(G1) going away by two lengths in 1:08.82. His daddy won the Belmont (G1) and

Met Mile (G1) on this track and with the slowish nature of the Belmont main

track this fall, Taste of Paradise was able to get up in time and punch his

ticket to the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1).

After the race, Gary Mandella explained the sudden form reversal for a horse

that was winless in 2005.

"A lot of the riders out in California have said that as soon as he goes into

the turn, he tries to back out a little bit," Mandella said. "The best remedy

for a horse like that is to get him on a wider turn. We've been wanting to run

him here at Belmont Park. He has been a little bit problematic, but he was

training great and his feet are better than they have been in a while. He was a

little hesitant at the top of the stretch, but when he saw daylight, he knew

what that meant. He cut and he was gone. Garrett rode a great race. We'll take

him back to California. I need to monitor his feed on a daily basis and we'll

ship back here."

*****

The $750,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (G1) was the most thrilling

race of the weekend but the best horse may not have won. SHAKESPEARE (Theatrical

[Ire]) got up in the final strides to win by a head as the 9-10 favorite to keep

his undefeated streak at five. ENGLISH CHANNEL (Smart Strike) was a brilliant

second racing between horses in the stretch in his first start against older

turfers.

Ace (Ire) (Danehill) has been in against tough turf competition all season in

Europe for Aidan O'Brien but with the Arc being run the next day at Longchamp,

O'Brien did not have Kieren Fallon available and wound up using Pat Valenzuela.

No knock against Valenzuela, who is one of the 10 greatest riders in American racing

history, but he was a bad fit for Ace.

Islero Noir (Septieme Ciel) went to the front under Edgar Prado and dragged

the field through a six furlongs in 1:15.91. Instead of racing in behind Islero

Noir, Valenzuela had Ace first over on the outside waiting to pounce. With an

American-trained horse, this tactic would have been acceptable but in Europe

horses are trained to race behind others (called "covered up") and when the

rider wants him to go he steers him to the clear.

Valenzuela never had Ace covered up at any point in the 12-furlong race and

you could see he was not running relaxed. He battled on gamely through the lane

while down on the inside and you can only wonder how much more late energy he

would have had with a covered-up trip. However, he still is a second string

horse in the O'Brien barn and that might tell you more about how good the

Europeans that will show up for the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) are.

*****

I said last week not to ignore RISKAVERSE (Dynaformer) in the Flower Bowl

Invitational (G1) considering that she won last year. And, lo and behold, the

old bay mare did it again at a huge $73.50 mutuel. Wonder Again (Dynaformer) was

brilliant in second as she had to go wide while Jose Santos saved round on

Riskaverse. Pat Kelly is one of the true good guys in the business and when he

wins a grade 1 it's special to anyone that knows him.

With MEGAHERTZ (GB) (Pivotal) winning the Yellow Ribbon (G1) for Bobby

Frankel at Santa Anita and a strong contingent expected from Europe, the

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) might be the most contentious race of

this year's Breeders' Cup.