Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

DECEMBER 13, 2005

by Dick Powell

Polytrack is coming and it's coming fast. The synthetic racing surface is the

main talking point in horse racing circles as tracks attempt to keep horses

sounder so that they can run more often.

With the national foal crop size staying level, field size per race is still

dropping since more trainers today believe that their horses need more time

between races. A kinder, gentler racing surface will supposedly permit horses to

race and train with less wear and tear on their limbs, joints and soft tissue so

that they will need less time to recover and be able to get back on the

racetrack sooner.

Polytrack was installed this year for Turfway Park's September meet and the

industry held its collective breath. There was a larger, higher spray from the

horses' kickback than expected but that can be fixed with a different

maintenance program. Horses were scoped endoscopically after races and they

seemed none the worse for the wear.

Riders claimed that they only needed one pair of goggles since the ersatz

material hardly stuck to them. Most horsemen raved about the soundness of their

horses coming out of races. Patrick Biancone loved it so much that he stabled

many of his Breeders' Cup horses there to train even after the meet ended.

The first few days of the Turfway September meet was marred by a horsemen's

dispute that saw a very light entry box the first few days. This was rectified

quickly, but total betting on Turfway's races was down for the meet nearly 10

percent. It took a while to see how the track was playing, or not playing since

most days there was not a discernible bias. Turf horses seemed to grab a hold of

it very well, but there did not seem to be any pronounced bias for running

styles.

Turfway is now running its winter meet and this is where Polytrack should

provide major dividends. The victim of nasty winter weather conditions each

year, Turfway has been marred by numerous cancellations. Last year alone there

were 11 cancellations. Polytrack, if maintained correctly, will not

freeze since moisture drains through it. The only cancellations at Turfway this

meet will come from weather conditions that make it too dangerous to travel to

the track.

Keeneland is going to install Polytrack next summer and have it ready for

their meet in October. Woodbine is going to have it next summer as well and

switch their main track racing to a re-surfaced harness track that is seven

furlongs long -- think Sportsman's Park. Many other tracks, including all California tracks, look like they are ready to pull the trigger in a year or

two. If the New York Racing Association had the money, they would install it on

the Aqueduct inner dirt track or maybe go all the way and install it on the main

track.

Besides Polytrack there are other synthetic racing and training surfaces,

including the Tapeta System that Michael Dickinson has developed at his farm in

Maryland where horses like Da Hoss (Gone West) and A Huevo (Cool Joe) were able

to return off incredibly long layoffs and win major Grade 1 races.

Having already been accepted in Europe as a training and racing surface, it will be

interesting to see if the presence of Polytrack in America will mean more

European shippers attempting to win our major main track races.

It's safe to assume that business will be up dramatically at Turfway, but will

we handicappers embrace the racing there? A consistent racing surface may be

great for the horses, but many of us look for angles based on large variances

in track conditions, and we might not get them. We don't always want a level playing

field; sometimes, we want a speed horse on a track that is favoring speed.

And, we are all going to have to adjust our thinking with regard to running

times that are amazingly slow. Recently, there was a 1 1/16-mile event that went

in 1:53. For many races over six furlongs, the running times seem to be for

distances a sixteenth of a mile less.

So far at the Winter Meet, every race has been contested on a track that was

listed as "fast." While this may appeal to track management who believe that

bettors wager more money on tracks that are listed as "fast" rather than those that are

not, it might make it harder to handicap. Even though moisture is supposed to

drain right through it leaving a "fast" track, how are we handicappers to know

if it was raining during a night's races? Will there be differences in Polytrack's performance when it gets wet in terms of running times?

Will there be more kickback or spray when the track is dry? If the track

needs to be watered to reduce the kickback, will it then favor horses in front?

All these questions are unanswerable until we have more evidence, and until then

they make it hard to bet the Turfway Park races with any degree of confidence.

Yes, Turfway is just one track that is using Polytrack, but it might make

sense to pay attention to it to have a head start when the other tracks

mentioned install it.

*****

Here's an interesting one. Last Friday, December 9, NYRA canceled racing at

Aqueduct in anticipation of a nasty snow/ice storm that was forecasted to begin

early that morning. Unfortunately, when what would have been post time for the

1ST race came around, it was not snowing and the temperature was

above freezing.

In years past when bad weather hit, or was about to hit, racing officials

would huddle early in the morning to decide if racing would be conducted. But

now, with the five-hour detention barn scenario at Aqueduct in effect, decisions

on whether to race or not have to be made a lot earlier.

Imagine if you are a trainer stationed out of town and have entered to race

at Aqueduct. Weather is always a risk, but this is a risky game anyway so you

take your chances. But because of the detention barn timetable that requires you

to be present and accounted for five hours before your race, you might have to

leave at midnight to get there in time to check in if your horse drew into a

race early on the card.

Now, you have doubled your risk. Do I ship there and find out racing will be

canceled after I get there and still have to pay shipping costs and extra labor

for the detention barn? On days when NYRA cancels the day before, it might save

you a wasted trip. But NYRA is now going to have an unknown factor to consider when

making the decision to race or cancel. The fact that they have to make it

earlier than ever means a greater likelihood that Friday's scenario might be

repeated.