Kentucky Derby 2007

Street Sense could become the first Juvenile winner to take the Derby (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com)

One of the greatest spectacles in sports, the $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1)

will once again feature a competitive field of 20, with the best three-year-olds

from all over the country gathering under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs.

The 1 1/4-mile endurance test is always an extremely difficult handicapping

challenge, and the weather forecast further complicates the matter this year.

It's rained the last couple of days in Louisville, Kentucky, and more

thunderstorms will be in the area on Saturday. We can only hope that they'll

miss Churchill.

Come rain or shine, STREET SENSE (Street Cry [Ire]) is our pick to wear the

roses. Based at Churchill with trainer Carl Nafzger, the two-year-old champion

has worked well over the track recently, recording five furlongs in a bullet :59

on April 24 before posting a sharp final move in 1:01 on Tuesday, and his

affinity for Churchill runs deeper. The good-looking dark bay captured last

year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) by a record 10 lengths, earning a 111 BRIS

Speed rating for a stirring victory. Street Sense loves Churchill Downs.

A maiden winner prior to the Breeders' Cup, Street Sense needed to prove that

his Juvenile performance wasn't a fluke as he entered his three-year-old season.

Nafzger waited until the March 17 Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to bring him back, and

the delay had little effect as Street Sense returned with a superb effort,

dueling through the stretch with ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (Distorted Humor) before

gamely prevailing by a nose. He notched another top-class 105 Speed rating and

headed for the Polytrack at Keeneland, making his final Derby prep in the Blue

Grass S. (G1). Nafzger employed a similar strategy last year when using the

Breeders' Futurity (G1) as a set-up for the Juvenile.

Zanjero will try to outrun his more highly regarded stablemate on Saturday (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com)

Trainer Steve Asmussen will send out two starters, and most of the attention

falls upon the unbeaten CURLIN (Smart Strike). However, we'll use his stablemate

in the shadows, ZANJERO (Cherokee Run), to complete the exacta. Zanjero

exits an excellent third in the Blue Grass, racing throughout over a deep rail

that was on the worst part of the track, and likes Churchill. The dark bay colt won't

have any trouble with the distance and is bred to handle a wet track (his sire

and damsire both produce winners at a 19 percent clip). He's poised to offer a strong rally

in the stretch.

After breaking his maiden at Keeneland in October, Zanjero captured a 1

1/16-mile allowance at Churchill. He made his stakes debut next out in the

Remsen S. (G2), finishing second to NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (Albert the Great), and

got the rest of the winter off. Zanjero opened this year with a third in the

Risen Star S. (G3) and filled the same spot in the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his

following start. In the Blue Grass, he showed much more, missing by only a head

with a valiant effort that netted a 113 BRIS Late Pace rating. Zanjero's Speed

ratings have been solid (97-99-97), and we're expecting further progress. The

grinder owns good tactical speed and he'll be able to save ground from post 3

before offering his run. He also offers us the opportunity for some value.

Scat Daddy is but one of Todd Pletcher's five entrants to the Derby (Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com)

Scat Daddy is very dangerous. Trainer Todd Pletcher will send out a

record-tying five starters in search of his first Derby win, and Scat Daddy

figures to settle off the pace before offering his run under Edgar Prado, who

will be seeking his second straight Derby victory. The multiple Grade 1-winning

colt opened this year with a retreating third in the Holy Bull, but he

improved when stretching out to two turns in the Fountain of Youth, rallying

four wide to reach contention on the far turn and wearing down the leaders late

for a narrow win. Scat Daddy continued to show more in the Florida Derby (G1),

drawing clear to a 1 1/4-length score, and he's trained well at Keeneland in

preparation. His young sire is winning at a sparkling 26 percent rate on off

tracks, and Scat Daddy hasn't shown any distance limitations so far. We won't be

surprised to see him offer a serious challenge for it all.

Any Given Saturday will also represent Pletcher, but he

must overcome post 18. The dark bay wrapped up last year with a close second in

the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), his stakes debut, and made good progress into

his three-year-old season when winning the Sam F. Davis S. and finishing second

in the Tampa Bay Derby. He wound up shipping at the last minute to New York for

the Wood Memorial and tired a bit to third in the stretch, but he was caught

wide on both turns and didn't turn in a terrible effort. We won't count it

against him and expect a top showing in the Derby. Sire Distorted Humor (22

percent win) and damsire A.P. Indy (19 percent) are excellent sources for

wet-track prowess, and Any Given Saturday figures to move forward on a muddy or

sloppy track Saturday. Garrett Gomez must find a way to save some ground from

the outside, and Any Given Saturday could make some noise if he gets a good

trip.

Curlin will try to emulate Smarty Jones in winning the Rebel, Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com)

Curlin is a real enigma. He's as talented as any member of the field, winning

his first three starts by a combined 28 1/2 lengths, but he's also the most

inexperienced, making his career debut on February 3. Curlin showed the ability

to overcome trouble when taking the Rebel S. (G3) by 5 1/4 lengths two starts

back, but he met little resistance when thrashing overmatched rivals by 10 1/2

lengths in the Arkansas Derby (G2) last out. Curlin has been so visually awesome

that it's easy to understand why he might render seasoning irrelevant, but the

big colt has to get through the paddock experience and deal with traffic in the

bulky field. The speedy chestnut could also get caught chasing a wicked early

pace, softening him up for the latter stages. We won't be shocked to see him

overcome all obstacles, but we'll take a stand against Curlin.

HARD SPUN (Danzig) also perplexes us. The Pennsylvania-bred colt stylishly

captured his first three starts while racing at Delaware Park and Philadelphia

Park, and the Larry Jones pupil opened 2007 with a 6 1/2-length romp in the

Lecomte S. (G3) at Fair Grounds. Hard Spun suffered his first defeat when fourth

in the Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, but he rebounded well with a 3 1/4-length

score in the Lane's End S. (G2), earning a 106 Speed rating over the Polytrack

at Turfway Park. Hard Spun worked unbelievably fast on Monday, slowing down late

after ripping off blistering opening eighths in :11 seconds, and he's probably

heading to the lead when the gate opens. Danzig is a good wet-track sire, but damsire Turkoman owns a low 13 percent win rate with off-track runners. Hard

Spun appears poised to try to steal it, but he'll likely face serious pressure

up front.

Teuflesberg will be going for his first graded win in the Derby (Michael J. Marten/Horsephotos.com)

Grade 1 winner GREAT HUNTER (Aptitude) owns a good turn of foot and plenty of

back class, but he'll have a tough time overcoming post 20. The Doug

O'Neill trainee didn't impress when stretching out to nine furlongs for the

first time in the Blue Grass and we're not convinced he'll handle 1 1/4 miles.

Great Hunter doesn't own a favorable pedigree for a wet track, either. STORMELLO

(Stormy Atlantic) will probably come out winging it from post 17, and the Grade

1-winning colt ran extremely well on the front end when making his

three-year-old debut in the 1 1/8-mile Fountain of Youth. He's got the pedigree

to enjoy wet conditions, but there's plenty of speed on his dam's side (Carson

City) and Stormello may not want to travel 10 furlongs.

LIQUIDITY (Tiznow) flashed good potential over the winter, finishing second

in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) and Sham S. (G3), but he's gone off form for

O'Neill since then, finishing sixth in the Louisiana Derby and fourth in the

Santa Anita Derby (G1). He's probably better than he's shown in those starts, but

this is a difficult spot to turn things around. TEUFLESBERG (Johannesburg) would

probably relish a wet track and appears to be training well for Jamie Sanders,

but he looks a little overmatched at this distance against this company.

TIAGO (Pleasant Tap) broke his maiden via disqualification on January 21, but

he hadn't earned a Speed rating better than 89 in three starts when making his

stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby last out. The John Shirreffs-trained

colt upset his rivals at 29-1, closing from far back to win by a half-length,

but Giacomo's half-brother will have a difficult time reproducing that effort at

Churchill. We'll look for more down the road from Tiago. SAM P. (Cat Thief)

finished third in the Santa Anita Derby, and we're taking a dim view of that

prep race. The Pletcher-trained colt reportedly has trouble keeping his focus in

his starts, and we can't envision him putting everything together against better

company in the Derby.