Handicapping Insights

HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS

JUNE 14, 2013

by Dick Powell

The Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown for 2013 are over and while history

was not made, it was still a lot of fun with three challenging races to handicap

and bet on.

The Derby showed that workouts are critically important. The first Saturday

in May is penciled in on every trainer's calendar and with few exceptions, the

horses are on a schedule for the past four months to be at their best that

particular day so their workouts are a true indicator of what condition they are

in.

Orb worked brilliantly and raced back to it when he rallied wide from far

back to win the Derby and provide Shug McGaughey with his first Derby win. Todd

Pletcher had five entrants in the race and when Revolutionary's third was the

best he could do, he skipped the Preakness with all five and regrouped.

With Orb winning the Derby, the horses that showed up for the Preakness were

now in a different position regarding their training. If the Derby was "Plan A,"

the Preakness is clearly "Plan B," at least for the ones that ran in the Derby.

And even for those that didn't, it's not like their owners and trainers sat

around all year and mapped out a plan for the third Saturday in May.

How you came out of the Derby physically is a critical component of being

ready for the Preakness. It looked like Orb was better than ever but horses can

make liars of us all. Everything that could go wrong went wrong and Orb was

lucky to run fourth. Even so, he was not the same horse he was in the Derby.

Oxbow, the only horse that raced up on the pace to hang around in the stretch

of the Derby, had a dream trip and pulled off the upset.

It was on to the Belmont Stakes, the "Test of the Champion," and this race at

1 1/2 miles is definitely a "Plan C." If you raced in the Derby and Preakness,

you were just trying to keep the wheels from coming off. If you skipped the

Preakness like Pletcher did, you had five weeks to regroup but at the marathon

distance, you have to do some training and show up with a fit horse.

As handicappers, we have a pretty good idea of how horses are doing going

into the Derby. For the Belmont, it's impossible to judge since most are on

differing schedules. Last year, I'll Have Another earned rave reviews for his

morning gallops and Paynter was dismissed after appearing stiff all week.

Well Paynter worked seven furlongs on the Sunday before in 1:26 and had every

right to be a bit stiff while I'll Have Another looked good since he wasn't

really doing anything but gallop home in the stretch.

I liked Revolutionary in the Derby and stayed with him in the Belmont. I

thought his third-place finish in the Derby was solid and with Orb running in

the Preakness, Revolutionary might have the advantage since he skipped it.

One thing that worried me was that Revolutionary only had two, half-mile

workouts since the Derby. Neither was particularly impressive and while it's

important to show up at Belmont with fresh legs and high energy, you still need

to be fit and ready to go the added distance. Were the two half-mile breezes

enough or were they a sign of some issues coming out of the Derby?

Pletcher worked Palace Malice three times after his Derby debacle when he ran

off with Mike Smith in his first race with blinkers. He removed them for the

Belmont and in each of his three workouts, he showed controlled energy. Working

on the identical days at the same distances was Unlimited Budget, who was taking

on boys for the first time, and I thought she had a big chance.

With my nagging fear on Revolutionary, I considered putting Unlimited Budget

on top, but when she drew post 13, it made my decision a lot easier. With a ton

of early speed horses to her inside, it was hard to see her working out a trip

without losing too much ground.

Belmont Park was inundated with heavy rain on Friday. As the races were run,

the course got even wetter and overnight the rain was heavy and steady. The

track was sealed tight as could be overnight, and with no training on Saturday

morning, the track maintenance crew had plenty of time to get to work.

Saturday was sunny and dry and the track began to dry out. The first two

races run on it were won by horses coming from off the pace but that began to

change. After race two, the tractors went around the opposite direction and

suddenly the track was favoring speed.

With the exception of the Woody Stephens, when the leaders went :21.99 and

:44.73 into the wind, speed was king for most of Saturday so when the horses

loaded into the gate for the Belmont, you knew we were not going to see a re-run

of the Preakness.

Alan Garcia sent Frac Daddy to the lead from post 1, and Luis Saez followed

suit aboard Freedom Child right next to him. Gary Stevens put Oxbow into the

race early and Smith had Palace Malice up on the pace on the outside. With a

first quarter in :23.11 and a half mile in :46.66, it looked like this year's

Belmont would go to a closer but a speed-favoring track can do funny things,

even going 12 furlongs.

Oxbow took the lead nearing the far turn as the inside speed backed out of it

and Palace Malice loomed boldly. Javier Castellano was able to sneak

Revolutionary through a hole on the inside and looked to be in perfect position

around the far turn. He was right behind the speed horses that were setting a

demanding pace and it looked like he would get first run at the lead.

Joel Rosario had Orb in a drive but wasn't picking up horses as quickly as

the Derby. With three furlongs to go, Stevens said afterwards that he was out of

horse and told Smith to go on with it, which he willingly obliged.

Palace Malice had the lead turning for home and opened up on Oxbow.

Revolutionary flattened out while racing on the inside and Orb's wide rally was

not going to be enough. With the wind at his back, Palace Malice took 27.58

seconds to run his last quarter but it was more than enough to win by 3 1/4

lengths over Oxbow in 2:30.70.

The chart of the race was the opposite of the Derby with the one-two

finishers racing up near the pace throughout. The only closer to threaten was

Orb, and longshot Incognito, who raced right behind the leaders, finished

fourth.

The fact that Oxbow held on for second after Stevens said he was out of horse

with three furlongs to run is indicative of how much the track was carrying

speed. The surface, listed as fast since the 9TH race, favored fast early/slow

late running styles and the fast pace turned out to be an advantage for those

that gunned from the gate.

Orb ran like a tired horse and we'll see how much time off he needs. Palace

Malice, having skipped the Preakness, should be able to contest the late summer

races and Oxbow has proven to be this year's iron horse with the best trio of

performances in the Triple Crown.

One reason I have been a fan of synthetic tracks as a bettor is that they

provide a safe, consistent racing surface. On Saturday at Belmont, we basically

saw two different main tracks, which should provide the lesson that flexibility

to changing conditions is critical for pari-mutuel success.