November 25, 2017

How to Handicap Kentucky Downs with Brisnet.com

The Kentucky Downs 2017 race meeting begins Saturday, September 2, and as a horseplayer this is easily one of the more exciting racetracks to handicap and bet. And that’s saying something coming from someone who handicaps the gamut of locations and class levels.

It’s exciting for all the reasons a horseplayer would find it exciting: fair takeout on full, competitive fields and a mix of races to handicap from 2yo maidens for the pedigree junkies to classy stakes action every day of the five-day meeting that runs through Thursday, September 14.

As a Brisnet.com user, however, Kentucky Downs is especially exciting because our numbers are so damned good there.

My ALLWAYS database goes back 11 seasons (2006-2016), which covers 464 races. Flat-betting the top-ranked horse by Prime Power yields a +10.5% ROI; doing the same with the top last-out Brisnet.com Speed Rating yields a -1.5% ROI.

That’s right, just betting the best Prime Power horse in each race the past 11 seasons regardless of condition, distance, etc.–literally regardless of anything else–and you’d have made a decent amount of money.

There does appear to be a difference based on sprints (races up to one mile) and routes (races one mile and longer). The best last-out Speed Rating has a +5% ROI in sprints while Prime Power is -9.5%. In routes, the best last-out Speed Rating is -5.5% ROI but the Prime Power is an incredible 25.5%.

When combining the two in non-maiden races–i.e. betting a horse who is the top-ranked horse by both last-out Speed Rating & Prime Power–you get 38 wins from 96 qualifiers (39.5%) with a +8% ROI. In non-maiden routes when the top-ranked Prime Power horse already has a turf win (Kentucky Downs is all turf racing), those horses are 61-for-156 (39.1%) with a 23% ROI.

So how do we put these stats into practice? Basically, I’d need a very compelling reason not to include the top-ranked horse in either category in non-maiden races. Maiden races will require more judgment given the likelihood of varying variables such as first-time starters, first-time turf, stretching out, etc. Still, the top-ranked horses are dangerous in all instances.

Another thing worth noting from last year’s meeting is that both sprint and routes earned the “E” designation for best routes, which means a preference toward front runners. 39% of sprint races were won gate-to-wire versus only 13% of routes, but still: “E” types were best overall.

Early speed can be a big weapon, indeed. Consider horses with at least 3-point advantage in the Quirin Speed Point scale have won 4 of 36 races (11.1%) with a +146% ROI, and it’s easy to understand why you should take a flyer on a longshot who figures to make an easy lead. Even making it just 2 Quirin Speed Points and you get 8-for-92 (8.7%) and a +49% ROI. If the top-ranked horse by Quirin Speed Points is also the top-ranked horse by Prime Power, then that yields 18 wins from 46 starts (39.1%) and a +16% ROI.

DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF ASSUMING THAT AN-ALL-TURF MEETING IS GOING TO FAVOR CLOSERS (or be unkind to speed horses).


KENTUCKY DOWNS AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 6.00 – 1
Favorite Win%: 34%, Favorite Itm%: 62%
EXOTICS
PAYOFF
Exacta 146.28
Daily Double 141.39
Trifecta 1,507.83
Pick 3 1,071.58
Superfecta 10,276.30
Pick 4 12,701.16
Pick 5 37,400.05
Super High Five 27,033.90

 

 

TRACK BIAS MEET(09/03 – 09/15)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
Turf Sprint 18 39% E Rail/Ins
Turf Routes 32 13% E Middle
Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Clement Christophe 7 3 2 0 6.84 3 20%
Rivelli Larry 3 2 0 1 4.10 1 28%
Vashchenko Pavel 6 2 1 1 9.15 1 19%
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Geroux Florent 27 9 6 2 3.74 7 19%
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Colebrook Ben 17 0 1 1 18.85 0 11%
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’15-‘
16
Win%
Landeros Chris 13 0 1 2 27.22 0 13%
Bridgmohan Shaun 11 0 0 2 33.35 0 16%

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*