January 20, 2018

A Longshot Play for Opening Day At Churchill Downs 2017 Homecoming Meeting

 

The first dirt race in 11 days in Kentucky will commence at 12:45 p.m. EDT on Friday, September 15, when Churchill Downs lifts the lid on its three-weekend Homecoming meeting.

Between closing day at Ellis and opening day at Churchill, Kentucky Downs had five days of world-class turf racing with some of the highest average win payouts in the history of the American turf. We won’t quite see those average prices at Churchill, but the Louisville track more than holds its own in this regard, as last year’s September meeting’s winners paid an average of $12.28–a 6% premium over the national average.

The 2015 average payout was even more robust at $14.11 per winner–a 22% boost over the national average.

Who are some of those winners today? My ABC grid below lists my most logical contenders in the “A” column along with my top pick in each race in the “TP” column on the far right. We’ll definitely be playing #8 Vindicta in race 6 to boost that average, as the 20-to-1 choice on the morning line sports a decent win-early pedigree and attracts jockey Florent Geroux for young trainer Sweezey.

Below is stats on the spring-summer meeting earlier this year.

 


CHURCHILL DOWNS AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 4.96 – 1
Favorite Win%: 36%, Favorite Itm%: 69%
EXOTICS
PAYOFF
Exacta 77.15
Daily Double 80.12
Trifecta 581.10
Pick 3 658.37
Superfecta 5,129.20
Pick 4 5,315.61
Pick 5 30,503.79
Pick 6 Jackpot 79,737.40
Future Wager 185.00
Super High Five 72,135.64
TRACK BIAS MEET(04/29 – 06/30)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
6.0fDirt 77 35% E Rail/Ins
7.0fDirt 48 38% E Rail/Ins
1 MileDirt 47 28% E Rail
1 1/16mDirt 56 29% E Rail/Ins
Turf Sprint 13 38% E Middle
Turf Routes 72 19% E/P Rail/Ins
TRACK BIAS WEEK(06/24 – 06/30)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
6.0fDirt 13 38% P Ins/Mid
7.0fDirt 6 50% E Rail
1 MileDirt 9 44% E Inside
1 1/16mDirt 6 33% E/P Mid/Out
Turf Sprint 1 0% P Middle
Turf Routes 10 40% E Rail/Ins
Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
McPeek Kenneth G. 19 7 1 2 8.13 3 14%
Colebrook Ben 8 3 2 2 14.55 1 12%
Connelly William R. 3 2 0 0 5.97 0 14%
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Saez Gabriel 25 0 2 5 18.87 1 13%
Gazader Rayan 13 0 1 0 25.59 0 7%
Gilligan Jack 13 0 2 0 22.95 0 11%

 

Be the first to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*