October 21, 2021

Handicapping Trends First Half of 2017 Keeneland Fall Meeting

When it comes to handicapping today’s $132,849 Pick 6 carryover at Keeneland, there are two things keep in mind about dirt sprints through the first 8 days of the meeting: Speed has done very well and so has Brisnet.com’s Prime Power rating.

There have been 40 dirt sprint races at the current meeting, and according to me Brisnet.com ALLWAYS database

  1. The top-ranked horse by Brisnet.com Prime Power has won 10 of them with a +14% ROI.
  2. The top-ranked horse by Quirin Speed Points has won 13 races with a +20% ROI.
  3. There have been 11 horses at the meeting who were the top-ranked horses in both Prime Power and by Quirin Speed Points. 5 won for a +12% ROI.

So how does this apply to today’s carryover? Well, races 3, 4, 5, & 6 are all dirt sprints and are the first four legs of the Pick 6.

There are no “pure” dual qualifiers—the closest is #4 Kantastic in race 4 (leg 2), a maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies. That race features four first-time starters, so it’s tough to get excited about a horse with just a 3.7 Prime Power edge with only 3 Quirin Points as a co-top whose 71 Speed Rating is below par.

#1 White Gold is a must use in race 5 (leg 3), a first-level $30,000 conditioned claimer. She draws the rail, which has done well this meeting, drops from allowance company, and totes an 11.2-point Prime Power advantage while being just a point off the top Quirin figure in the race but 2 points ahead of the next.

In non-maiden dirt sprints this month at Keeneland, 11 horses have been the top-ranked by Prime Power AND among the top two Quirin Speed Points with 5 of those horses winning. Going back to spring 2013, 40% of horses who were top-ranked in Prime Power by at least 10 points who were first or second by Quirin Speed Points won that race.

Other notable trends via the Brisnet.com At A Glance feature (see below) is Dale Romans having a very good meet after a chilly end to the summer while trainers Mott, Oliver, and Sims and jockeys Gilligan and Hernandez are still looking for their first wins of the meeting.

Trainer Victoria Oliver has a pair of starters in race 7 (leg 5)—both at morning line odds of 12-to-1. Jockey Jack Gilligan rides in races 1 and 8 while Brian Hernandez gets legged up in races 1, 3, 4, and 6.

Follow @EJXD2 & @TwinSpires for real-time picks and analysis throughout the card.

 


KEENELAND AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 6.06 – 1
Favorite Win%: 26%, Favorite Itm%: 68%
EXOTICS
PAYOFF
Exacta 103.75
Daily Double 100.81
Trifecta 788.03
Pick 3 834.88
Superfecta 6,038.89
Pick 6 62,610.20
Pick 4 5,456.76
Pick 5 35,537.75
Super High Five 9,606.88
TRACK BIAS MEET(10/06 – 10/15)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
6.0fDirt 17 29% E Middle
7.0fDirt 11 36% E Rail
1 MileDirt 1 0% E/P Middle
1 1/16mDirt 15 13% P Outside
Turf Sprint 3 0% E/P Ins/Mid
Turf Routes 15 27% E Middle
Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Romans Dale L. 9 4 1 2 10.09 3 14%
Arnold, II George R. 12 4 1 3 8.78 0 14%
Colebrook Ben 8 3 0 1 24.50 0 12%
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Santana, Jr. Ricardo 22 7 3 1 12.88 0 15%
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Sims Philip A. 13 0 1 2 15.95 1 20%
Mott William I. 11 0 0 2 5.16 2 14%
Oliver Victoria H. 10 0 2 0 26.25 0 11%
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph 22 0 3 3 14.87 4 15%
Gilligan Jack 18 0 1 1 38.98 2 10%