January 23, 2018

How to Win Bet the Breeders’ Cup Races

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My opinions on this year’s 13 Breeders’ Cup races can be distilled into three categories:

  1. Most likely winners who I have a difficult time opposing
  2. Favorites I’m against with no strong opinion of which price horse will win
  3. Logical horses in a competitive race

As a horseplayer who bets his picks, the above are in order of preference. I love sinking my teeth into a race where I have a singular opinion on who the most likely winner is and all the better if that horse figures to be an underlay. I.e., a race in category 1 doesn’t always yield a good bet, I just find that they’re the most likely to do so.

My top picks at this year’s Breeders’ Cup who fall into this category are Arrogate (Classic), Bolt d’Oro (Juvenile), Disco Partner (Turf Sprint), and Unique Bella (Filly & Mare Sprint).

I expect Arrogate and Disco Partner to be worth betting while Bolt d’Oro and Unique Bella will be more about enjoying the show.

In the second category is Gio Game (Juvenile Fillies), Imperial Hint (Sprint), Kitten’s Roar (Filly & Mare Turf), Madeline (Juvenile Fillies Turf), Pubilius Syrus (Juvenile Turf), and Suedois (Mile).

I wouldn’t qualify any of these as the most likely winner, but I do think they’ll all be overlaid prices versus their chances of winning thanks to others in the race.

The last category is the toughest to make a top pick. Take the Distaff, for instance. I’m very against Stellar Wind, which matches category two, but none of the alternatives are big prices to get excited about. I sided with Elate, but it’s difficult to see her as a win play considering Forever Unbridled and Abel Tasman both appear so formidable as well. This is a better race from a Pick 4 standpoint than a top pick.

Above is my top pick for every Breeders’ Cup race and how I would allocate my capital based on my confidence in each.

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