October 19, 2018

How to Bet the Must-Win Carryovers at Mahoning Valley

There are a pair of MUST-WIN carryovers today at Mahoning Valley Race Course, and a mix of such little competition and the added money should attract what I hope is a lot of casual (i.e. not-as-smart-as-my) money into the pools.

To make yourself smarter, CLICK HERE for handicapping reports from Brisnet.com

The Pick 6 is a $0.20 minimum, has $22,156 to start, and begins at 2:06 p.m. EST with race 5 on the 10-race card. The Pick 4 is of the $0.50 variety and begins at 3:02p ET with race 7.

I usually approach sequences one of two ways: A big favorite to hang my hat on and hopefully some bombs to go with it *OR* a sequence of races where more favorites than not look vulnerable but not necessarily bomb sniffing.

The sequences today at Mahoning Valley fit more in the latter category where the top half of the full fields (the pick 6 features 12, 11, 12, 11, 10, and 12 horses for 2,090,880 combos) are competitive but the bottom halves are not. I am just going to have to get beat by certain horses while still being against several favorites.

My grid is above. As you can see, my strongest lean is in race 10 when 2-to-1 morning line favorite Northern Track will likely have a lot of Pick 6 hopes riding on him to break the maiden in try 14. There is a lot of speed in the race (7 “E” types in the Brisnet.com PPs), and outside posts are fine for this kind of trip. Trainer Gerald Chatterton is on a nasty little losing streak, though, so this one is tough to completely trust. We’ll have #3 Barnesland as the primary back up, but the reality is Northern Track is fastest.

In the opening leg of the Pick 6 (race 5), #5 Munchies is drawn best of the contenders, but that 2-to-1 price against equal talent sticks out as worth oppsing. The problem is that my alternatives “on paper”–#s 7, 8, & 9–are not drawn well, but we’re getting the right price on them working out a trip–especially my top pick #7 North Latitude, who has some races that get in contention early.

Good luck to all playing!

 



MAHONING VALLEY RACE COURSE AT A GLANCE
 
Avg. Winning Odds: 5.29 – 1
Favorite Win%: 39%, Favorite Itm%: 71%
 
EXOTICS
PAYOFF
Exacta 95.47
Daily Double 75.26
Trifecta 760.21
Pick 3 1,262.33
Superfecta 4,675.01
Pick 4 5,476.88
Pick 6 Jackpot 11,146.38
Super High Five 4,223.46
TRACK BIAS MEET(10/28 – 12/30)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
5.5fDirt 61 26% E/P Outside
6.0fDirt 140 35% E Rail
1 MileDirt 54 15% E/P Rail/Ins
1m 70yDirt 33 21% E Rail/Ins
TRACK BIAS WEEK(12/24 – 12/30)
Distance #
Race
%
Wire
Best
Style
Best
Posts
5.5fDirt 5 20% S Outside
6.0fDirt 10 40% E Mid/Out
1 MileDirt 5 0% E/P Ins/Mid
1m 70yDirt 3 33% E/P Ins/Mid
Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
 
HOT TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Pappada Julie A. 8 3 2 2 4.70 0 18%
Poole Joseph M. 8 3 2 0 9.68 0 16%
Severin Robert 2 2 0 0 3.90 0 11%
 
HOT JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Winning
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Gonzalez Luis Antonio 6 3 1 0 25.05 1 11%
Pilares Christian P. 8 2 0 2 22.09 1 17%
 
COLD TRAINERS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Faulkner Rodney C. 15 0 1 0 17.39 0 7%
 
COLD JOCKEYS Starts Wins Place Show Avg.
Odds
Beaten
Favorites
’16-‘
17
Win%
Berrios Hector 11 0 2 1 15.81 1 8%


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