July 23, 2018

Top 5 Plays on Fair Grounds Lecomte Stakes Day Card

Riffing off a favorite Facebook theme of mine (and thanks to Ryan Martin for the idea), here are my Top 5 plays on today’s 13-race Lecomte Stakes day card at Fair Grounds.

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5. The late Pick 4.

There are 6 stakes on today’s 13-race card, but don’t sleep on that late Pick 4 that kicks off with the final stakes of the day: the Louisiana Handicap as race 10 and concludes with a maiden claimer as race 13. I like the sequence because I can gamble a little bit singling #5 The Player in race 10 and #5 Fashion Bid in race 12 and hope races 11 and 13 “bomb out.” I’ll single both on one ticket and play two others that single one of them. I.e., one of them has to win!

4. #5 Time Flies By in race 1

Maybe being off the turf will confound bettors enough not to hammer Time Flies By,. who would have been the pick here even on turf. Would take 2-to-1 or better on this horse.

3. All-stakes Pick 4 (races 7-10)

Race 10, the Louisiana Handicap, is the only race that is a part of more than 1 Pick 4, so it’s an important one to get right. I liked #5 The Player a lot, anyway, and the scratches make me like him even more. he’s a strong single, which we’ll need since we’re spreading to beat some favorites including Wonder Gadot in the Silverbulletday and Instilled Regard/Principe Guilherme in the Lecomte.

2. The Lecomte Stakes (race 9)

The featured race is also one of the best to bet with 13 going postward and both favorites–#10 Instilled Regard and #12 Principe Guilherme–vulnerable with outside posts. For the record, I do like Instilled Regard better than Principe Guilherme, and I might have made the Jerry Hollendorfer shipper my top pick with a better post, but they’re both underlays.

I landed on #5 Kowboy Karma on top, as I think the race will come back to him late and he has the right post to save ground. Any improvement puts him right there at a square price. I’ll play him across the board at 5-to-1 or better.

1. #5 Inveniam Viam in race 6.

The first of two turf stakes is in race 6, and this is the only stakes not a part of any Pick 4, which is too bad since I Love #5 Inveniam Viam so much in here. He’s in form, the race sets up for him, and he’s won at Fair Grounds AND on soft turf. 9-to-2 on morning line, but we’d gladly take 3-to-1.

My grid is

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