April 23, 2019

Poll Dancing: Why I Rank Kentucky Derby Horses the Way I do

For me, horse racing is a gambling game. Yes, it’s the sport of kings, but I’m a pauper so I’ll leave the oligarchs to sport while I try to cash a ticket.

And as much as I love the Kentucky Derby for how it embodies all the glorious tradition of the American Turf, when push comes to shove what I really want most out of the race long after the “My Old Kentucky Home” tears have dried is to brag about having it right (and the money that goes along with it).

Which is why I do not necessarily rank Kentucky Derby horses in order of most likely winner. E.g., I see undefeated Santa Anita Derby winner Justify as a legitimate 5-to-1 chance to win the roses, but at a likely 3-to-1 price when the gates open, he’s one of the biggest underlays in the field. Now, the talent is too immense for me to dismiss him completely–especially since as the most likely winner he can be overlaid in other combinations, but he’s just not a horse I have any interest in as a win pick.

Magnum Moon is an even more extreme case. The Arkansas Derby winner is undefeated like Justify, but unlike Justify he’s never run particularly fast. At a possible 8-to-1 price with fair odds (on my line) of 12-to-1 he’s technically a better bet than Justify, but he’s only about half as likely to win and just not exciting to me as a wagering prospect at all.

We’ll finesse this list as horses move in and out of the top 20 and finalize their preparations for the May 5 Kentucky Derby. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of Kentucky Derby contenders in points order, CLICK HERE.

 

2 Comments on Poll Dancing: Why I Rank Kentucky Derby Horses the Way I do

  1. Good magic at 8 and Bolt DOro at 2?? Wow that is beyond horrible. Just curious how u have this job? No disrespect but what are u thinking?

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