April 10, 2021

How to bet the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes

Kentucky Downs Race Course in Franklin, Kentucky (c) Jamie Newell/Horsephotos.com

by John Mucciolo

A nice field of juvenile prospects will travel one-mile on Saturday in the lucrative, $400,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes.

Here’s a look at the field:

JAIS’S SOLITUDE (#1) – Eddie Kenneally pupil won going away at Indiana Grand in his August 10 debut. The $125,000 Afleet Alex colt gets the rail and will rally from off the pace beneath Feargal Lynch.

HENLEY’S JOY (#2) – Kitten’s Joy colt made a big late run to graduate at first asking at Ellis Park. Mike Maker trainee interestingly adds blinkers off the score. Tyler Gaffalione will ride and I am a fan.

GOOD GOOD (#3) – Todd Pletcher trainee was a late third sprinting at Saratoga in his grassy debut. The Quality Road colt earned a solid BRIS Late Pace figure to indicate he will handle the stretch out here, and his pedigree suggests the same. Florent Geroux has the call.

ALL AMERICAN HERO (#4) – This $400,000 Hard Spun colt chased speed before finishing well back in third on the Saratoga dirt. The Mark Casse juvenile was favored at first call and I love the aggressive move to enter this field.

CORAL LEGACY (#5) – This second runner from Todd Pletcher’s barn was a debut winner at the distance at Gulfstream Park and is another who figures.

TRACKSMITH (#6) – Joe Sharp charge beat turf sprinters in his career bow at Ellis Park. The Street Sense colt is not without a chance with expected improvement going one mile.

DRAGIC (#7) – Wesley Ward youngster was fourth behind Bellafina in the Sorrento (G2) most recently and tries grass for the initial time. Speedy lass could have opted to run against fillies, but curiously lands here.

BEST YOU EVER SEEN (#8) – Recent maiden winner didn’t beat much at Arlington and would be a surprise.

PRADAR (#9) – Skipshot colt has never run on the green and looks overmatched at huge odds.

MR ZYDECO (#10) – Maiden ran a sneaky-good second in a lone run on the weeds. Bay colt can’t be endorsed but might run better than most think.

POLE SETTER (#11) – Brad Cox trainee pulled away late to a fine Ellis Park tally on the grass going one mile. The $220,000 juvenile purchase retains Shaun Bridgmohan and fits well if able to overcome the difficult post.

ANALYSIS

I expect Dragic to use her natural speed to go to the front early on. And she could be well clear.

The trio that I believe that will be closing best in the stretch is Henley’s Joy, Good Good and Pole Setter. I will focus solely on the quartet with my plays.

WAGER

$30 Win #7 DRAGIC = $30

$2 Exacta Box 2,3,7,11 = $24

$1 Trifecta Box 2,3,7,11 = $24