April 20, 2019

How to bet the Pick 5 $6,929 carryover at Arlington

Arlington Million week kicks off on Thursday at Arlington International Racecourse, and the 8-race card features a $6,929 carryover in the late Pick 5, which begins at 4:12 p.m. EDT with race 4.

We’re off the turf, and we’ll know where we stand right off the rip, as my strongest opinion from a win standpoint is #8 Lillet, who has run well in two synthetic tries and should benefit from a shortening up here as the fastest horse early and overall.

Things open up later in the sequence, however, including liking a 10-to-1 morning line horse in race 5 to kick off the TwinSpires.com late Pick 4. #4 Fist Full steps up in class and hopefully ignored for that reason, but his last race was fastest on the Brisnet.com Speed Rating scale, and he figures to stay on form in the third race off the layoff.

In race 7 (leg 4), I do like 5-to-2 morning line favorite #7 Wildwood Scat, but Polytrack is a concern for a horse clearly suited to turf based on 4-for-17 on turf and 0-for-4 otherwise. #6 G P’s Girl intrigues a bit back on Polytrack and picking up Mitchell Murrill.

We’ll try to get live to at least #s 1, 2, 5, 8 in race 8 (leg 5), which gives us inside speed and outside stalkers.

The grid for the entire 8-race card is above. For handicapping reports, CLICK HERE.