October 9, 2024

Santana leads jockeys of juveniles so far in 2018

Bano Solo breaks his maiden under jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. at Churchill Downs on June 23, 2018 (c) Churchill Downs/Coady Photography

When it comes to handicapping two-year-old racing, pedigree, trainer stats, and workouts are popular resources, but what about jockeys?

Most would likely attribute jockey success to the trainers who leg them up, and a quick scan of the top riders of two-year-olds this year by wins and/or earnings lends credence to this conventional wisdom.

Through August 15, Ricardo Santana is the leading rider of juvenile by both wins (16) and earnings ($815,663). However, 93.75% of his wins (15) and 92.56% of his mounts’ earnings ($755,230) have come from Steve Asmussen-trained horses even only as 81.6% of his total two-year-old mounts have come from that trainer.

Athens Queen prevails by a neck in the Astoria Stakes at Belmont Park with jockey Albin Jimenez aboard on Thursday, June 7, 2018 (c) NYRA/Chelsea Durand/Adam Coglianese Photography

Albin Jimenez, second by wins with 14 and sixth by earnings with $581,900, is similar in that most of his success has come via trainer Wesley Ward (9-for-13) or Kelly Breen (3-for-5) and is “just” 2-for-9 combined among 6 other trainer (just is quoted because 2/9 is still pretty good just not otherworldly like  69.2% of 60% strike rates.

The other top five jockeys by wins are Drayden Van Dyke (12/27), Tracy Hebert (11/21), and Miguel Vasquez (11/51). One thing the top five riders all have in common besides being in the top 5 jockeys by wins aboard two-year-old racehorses is that they all show a flat-bet profit in this category. In fact, 7 of the top 9 jockeys by juvenile wins have a flat-bet profit ROI in this category: Irad Ortiz Jr. and Joel Rosario. The two jockeys in the top 9 by wins with a negative ROI are Tyler Gaffalione and Jose Ortiz.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, five jockeys have ridden at least 20 foals of 2016 with no wins: Santo Sanjur (0/21), Reylu Gutierrez (0/21), Joe Lezcano (0/21), Jack Gilligan (0/22), and Samuel Camacho Jr. (0/24). Very few of these mounts were aboard favorites, though. The most futile in that category is probably Timothy Thornton at 1-for-10 this year. The aforementioned Santana, Van Dyke, Jimenez, and Hebert all do well aboard chalk with a flat-bet profit on favored two-year-olds. Five of the top 7 and 7 of the top 10 jockeys aboard winning juvenile favorites all have positive ROIs. Kudos to their agents!