April 20, 2019

How to bet the Woodbine Mile with Oscar Performance

There is no question who the fastest horse in the Woodbine Mile is. It’s Oscar Performance.

Of course, when a handicapper makes a statement like that, the actual information s/he is trying to ascertain is, “This horse has run faster than any horse in the race, but will he be faster today AND are the odds compensating us for the likelihood that said horse will perform in a certain manner?”

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Oscar Performance’s performance in the Poker Handicap wins this Woodbine Mile at least 90% of the time, but what percent chance is it that he runs close to that performance (close would be good enough)? I figure there’s a 33% chance he runs close to his best, 33% he runs “OK”, and 33% chance that the Poker emptied the tank and that was the issue in the Million. Put it all together, and I see 3-to-1 as fair odds that Oscar Performance wins the Woodbine Mile.

And thanks to the presence of Delta Prince and Lord Glitters those 3-to-1 odds should materialize.

Also thanks to Delta Prince and Lord Glitters, the exotics are worth looking into as well because I’d much rather play Good Samaritan and Divisidero than either of the aforementioned top betting choices (besides Oscar Performance). My strategy will be to clobber the race if Oscar Performance, Divisidero, and Good Samaritan make up the exacta. I’ll use Delta Prince and Lord Glitters in the win spot but only in combos that include Good Samaritan and/or Divisidero in the trifecta.

The Woodbine Mile begins the all-stakes Pick 4 and is the 2nd leg of a guaranteed pool Pick 5. Visit Woodbine.com for my multi-race wagering analysis as well as for Emily Gullickson’s Super High 5 thoughts.

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