August 11, 2022

What are the chances ‘so-and-so’ wins the Preakness Stakes

Based on how I thought the Preakness Stakes (click for FREE Ultimate Past Performances of the race only; for all handicapping reports, CLICK HERE) would be bet I was a little nervous at how much opportunity there would be. The 13-horse field and bad favorite offered plenty of optimism for said opportunity, but letting the math play out on how this race would be bet just didn’t support the optimism.

But now we have about $810k in the Black-Eyed Susan – Preakness Stakes double pool to go off at, and there does, indeed, appear to be some opportunity.

So with the above perspectives in mind, I re-calibrated my expected off odds and have a clear picture of how I’ll bet this race.

So based on the above I am going to stick with my most likely winner (4-to-1, 20% chance) #1 War of Will as my pick to win the Preakness Stakes.

2 1/2 weeks ago I was already excited to bet this horse tomorrow. He hadn’t had a meaningful race since the Risen Star Stakes, and I thought the Kentucky Derby would “set him up” for the Preakness in as much that a horse could ever use the Derby as a prep. Then he drew the 1 then he had some trouble, and it seemed as if everyone was on him.

#11 Laughing Fox is the best bet in the group, and I choose those words carefully because while I imagine it’ll be great for me if he wins, I’m most interested in him running well enough to crash the trifecta as the 11th choice (to win) in the field of 13.

I’m structuring my wagers around a few scenarios:

  1. Both War of Will and Laughing Fox hit the board/the super. This costs $33 at the 50-cent base for trifectas or $132 at the 10-cent base for superfectas.
  2. Laughing Fox hits the board with the horses I like–even if they are underlaid in the win pool. This is a 50-cent trifecta key box 11 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 13 for $84
  3. It bombs out up top a la the Kentucky Derby: $1 exacta box 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13 ($42)

Of course, follow @EJXD2 for my 14-race grid for Preakness day at Pimlico Race Course!