September 23, 2020

Nadal, Tiz the Law 8-1; ‘All others’ 2-1 in Pool 2 of Kentucky Derby Future Wager

At the conclusion of Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager on Sunday, “All other 3-year-old colts and geldings” ranked as the 2-1 favorite. The mutuel field’s popularity at the beginning of the year continues the pattern dating back to the beginning of the KDFW in 1999.

Less expected than the trimming of “All others” from its 5-2 morning line was the stampede for Bob Baffert’s smashing debut winner Nadal. On the basis of his 6 1/2-furlong maiden win at Santa Anita, Nadal plunged from a morning line of 12-1 to 8-1 and shaded Tiz the Law for individual favoritism.

Moreover, bettors were piling on Nadal before his stakes debut in Sunday’s San Vicente (G2), with its post time a little more than 30 minutes after Pool 2 closed at 6 p.m. (ET). Nadal got the job done in hard-fought fashion, setting himself up for his first two-turn attempt – and Kentucky Derby (G1) points race –likely in the March 14 Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

Tiz the Law, who attracted slightly less money in Pool 2 ($36,530) than Nadal ($38,014), held steady at his 8-1 morning line. The Barclay Tagg runner added the Feb. 1 Holy Bull (G3) to his romp in last fall’s Champagne (G1) and now looks toward the March 28 Florida Derby (G1).

Next came Dennis’ Moment, clipped from 12-1 to 10-1. The Iroquois (G3) hero, and stumbling last as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) favorite, aims to rebound in the Feb. 29 Fountain of Youth (G2). Maxfield, sidelined by surgery since his Breeders’ Futurity (G1) victory, is reportedly progressing on the comeback trail and saw his 15-1 morning line contract to 13-1.

The morning lines for Nadal’s stablemates proved prescient. Sham (G3) winner Authentic closed at the same 15-1, and Thousand Words, victor of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and Robert B. Lewis (G3), inched to 16-1 ahead of their potential clash in the March 7 San Felipe (G2).

The most significant drifter was Independence Hall, whose first loss in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3) pushed his odds out from 10-1 to 19-1.

Pool 3 of the KDFW is set for March 6-8, concurrent with the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager and the Oaks/Derby Double Future Wager. The final KDFW, Pool 4, will be conducted April 3-5.

KDFW Pool 2

HORSE ML Odds Final Odds
Anneau d’Or 30-1 28-1
Authentic 15-1 15-1
Basin 30-1 39-1
Chance It 30-1 39-1
Dennis’ Moment 12-1 10-1
Enforceable 30-1 29-1
Exaulted 50-1 99-1
Gold Street 30-1 54-1
Gouverneur Morris 30-1 32-1
Honor A. P. 30-1 24-1
Independence Hall 10-1 19-1
Max Player 20-1 49-1
Maxfield 15-1 13-1
Nadal 12-1 8-1
Palm Springs 50-1 98-1
Premier Star 50-1 99-1
Silver State 50-1 50-1
Storm the Court 30-1 30-1
Structor 30-1 28-1
Thousand Words 15-1 16-1
Three Technique 50-1 36-1
Tiz the Law 8-1 8-1
Violent City 50-1 99-1
Mutuel Field 5-2 2-1

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