Emily Gullikson takes a look at the Oaklawn Park March 25 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
#5 ALL SHACKED UP finished second as the Circles and Squares horse behind a lone winner in his most recent, March 12th, start. A similar effort here and even a potential pace advantage as shown on OptixPLOT in Quad I, should be plenty to make him competitive here. In terms of form cycle, he went into that March 12th event on an improving pattern, second off and route-to-sprint, those factors contributing to his improved place finish and cycle top 91 OptixFIG. With that in mind, the peak effort last out and with the quick 13-day turnaround could be a scenario where he regresses slightly. The regression could be not quite enough to make a difference, though as the favorite one has to become very critical.
Today’s lower SpeedRate plays favorably to All Shacked Up and could upgrade #1 KID’S MISCHIEF at a big price based on Surface/Distance. He has positives coming into this race making his second start of the form cycle and a positive change in distance to the ONE_TURN as indicated in his Past 3 Runlines. The McKnight barn has been on the colder side here compared to seasons past and should be and likely to be reflected on the board.
Some potential soft morning line favorites make this statebred allowance a playable race. Starting with morning line favorite #4 SIR BRAHMS he Plots well on Standard as a tracking Square in Quad II, however, loses his pace advantage on Surface/Distance. Today’s route distance is less than ideal for him and preferred as a sprinter. #3 IMPLICATOR does not have any real knocks in terms of his position on the Plot, however a short price on a deep closer (Quad IV) can create some reservations. Without any clear cut pace advantage, he does not hold any other real advantages in terms of form, speed, or class over others in this field to justify a shorter price.
Current form and pace as a Quad IV Circle has #1 JIMMY T needing to improve to compete though could find himself in the right place, time, and price to do so. His Oaklawn Park form from last season stacks up in RANGE and as he makes his second start of the form cycle, the distance change and receiving fitness after the 233-day layoff the case to get back to his top efforts and even move forward. His OptixFIG in RANGE (for this race) were all from last season recorded as a sophomore. He can be given a pass for the Kentucky races, races that are playing a role in his Plot position, after peaking from the Oaklawn meet and not to the level of his open company higher claiming race rivals. Between those races and his form from his younger seasons he has the ability to show more tactical speed and not quite the true Quad IV or even Circle as it appears. Class wise this also a softer spot for him to compete as the February 27th race was higher OptixFIGRANGE with horses coming out of that race holding their form.
#5 PRIVATE LAKE holds some upside as he makes his second start of the meet and off the layoff this afternoon. He returns here from the February 26th statebred Optional Claiming event, a race that was rated slightly higher on OFR (84-78) to today’s 81-75 RANGE. His OptixNOTES also positive from that race with the Green Keywords (BTL, IMPROVE) and extended comment from the TRAFFIC, TROUBLE, MOVE that suggests he could been right there for the win with a clean trip and still managed to hold in a three horse place blanket. With upside from that race he stacks right up with today’s competition. #6 C H JAY will also return from that event finishing in that same blanket for place behind the perfect trip winner. His position as a Square in Quad I, is tough to ignore here though will have to deal with similar pace pressure given the “Sun” Contention and 38 SpeedRate. Those pace factors included stretch out sprinter #2 CINNAMON VICTORY coming off a favorable trip breaking his maiden on debut last month; #7 SUNDAY SERMON stretching back out around two turns; as well as #8 TROPHY DADDY based on his position in Quad III.
#4 STAYIN’ OUT LATE is capable of getting overlooked here and holding upside from his January 16th seasonal debut. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines, the EX _ EXCUSE, in that race as he was never given a chance to compete (TACTIC-) following the slow (SLOG) start. Excusing that race his two juvenile efforts from Churchill Downs stack up on OptixFIG/GRADE to compete here. Between his juvenile starts, the Excuse and those races making up his three starts to date, those factors are playing a role in his position/shape on the Plot and should be taken more cautiously, especially with the “Red” PlotFit in play. Geroux will have the call this afternoon shipping into Oaklawn Park with positives in the TrainerJockey V-Bar shown above the Plot image below.